000
FXUS65 KMSO 162220 CCA
AFDMSO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
310 PM MDT SUN JUN 16 2013

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING...

.DISCUSSION...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL CLOSE LOW WEATHER SYSTEM OFF
THE NORTHWEST COAST WILL BEGIN TO MOVE ONSHORE TONIGHT AND
INFLUENCE THE ENTIRE NORTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEK.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR THE BIGGEST IMPACTS TO OCCUR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.

THE FIRST IMPACT:

* MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR HOT, ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
  MONDAY AND TUESDAY. HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S ARE LIKELY
  IN MONTANA WITH LOWER 90S IN THE LOWER HELLS CANYON REGION. THESE
  TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE THE HOTTEST FELT SO FAR THIS SUMMER.
  WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AS WELL.


* TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR SCATTERED TO
  NUMEROUS STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. IMPACTS FROM STORMS WILL BE GUSTY
  WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM MAY BE
  POSSIBLE.

* WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR THE STRONGEST AND MOST NUMEROUS
  STORMS OF THE WEEK.

  A FEW STORMS COULD BE SEVERE, CONTAINING HEAVY DOWNPOURS,
  POSSIBLE DAMAGING WINDS, AND THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL.
  ANOTHER POTENTIAL IMPACT, DEPENDING ON WHERE STORMS DEVELOP, IS
  THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING OVER PAST WILDFIRE BURN AREAS.
  STAY TUNED.

* THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR SCATTERED
  THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY IN NORTHWEST MONTANA. THIS WILL OCCUR
  AS THE UPPER LOW MEANDERS AROUND AND JUST NORTH OF THE REGION.
  THE UPPER LOW`S INFLUENCE WILL FINALLY EXIT THE REGION NEXT
  WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING
WHEN WE LOSE THE HEATING OF THE DAY. A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM MAY
DEVELOP IN LEMHI COUNTY, ID AND INTO SOUTHWEST MONTANA THIS
AFTERNOON BUT DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS AT
ALL TERMINALS THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. VERY WARM CONDITIONS WILL
OCCUR MONDAY ALONG WITH AN INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED LATE
AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORM. KBTM, KGPI AND KMSO WILL HAVE
THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR ONE OF THESE SHOWERS OR STORMS, BUT THE
WILL BE WIDELY SCATTERED. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP COULD CONTAIN GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN.

&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
ID...NONE.
&&

$$

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