367
FXUS65 KMSO 091923
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
123 PM MDT Thu May 9 2024

.DISCUSSION...As high pressure strengthens its grip over the
Northern Rockies, we`re witnessing a gradual retreat of cloud
cover from west to east, signaling clearer skies ahead.

This surge in high pressure is poised to usher in a warming trend
across central Idaho and western Montana, with valley highs
expected to climb into the mid 70s to mid 80s during the upcoming
period. Confidence in this forecast is notably robust, with
approximately 80 percent probability solutions indicating that
temperatures below 4000 feet will likely surpass the 80-degree
mark by Sunday.

Model guidance is aligning well, suggesting that the high
pressure system will maintain its dominance through Sunday,
providing a stable backdrop to the region`s weather. Ensembles
have also converged on the notion that the ridge will gradually
flatten come Monday. This transition brings with it slightly
cooler temperatures, alongside a high probability (exceeding 90
percent) for most areas to experience gusty winds reaching speeds
of at least 25 mph by Monday afternoon.

However, as we progress into Tuesday, the scenario becomes more
complex. Individual ensemble members diverge significantly,
introducing notable uncertainties in both temperature and
precipitation forecasts. This divergence underscores the challenge
in pinpointing precise details of the weather pattern beyond the
immediate forecast horizon.


&&

.AVIATION...As high pressure strengthens its hold over the
Northern Rockies, satellite imagery reveals a gradual dissipation
of cloud cover from west to east. By sunset, the majority of the
region is expected to enjoy clear skies as this weather system
asserts its influence. Following this, model guidance agreement is
high for mostly clear skies and stable conditions persisting
through Friday.





&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

$$