Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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MNC003-009-013-015-019-023-037-049-053-073-079-103-123-127-129-139-
141-143-145-153-163-171-173-WIC011-035-091-093-109-312359-

PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
940 AM CST FRI MAR 4 2016

...SPRING FLOOD PROBABILITIES NEAR TO BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMAL
FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...AND WESTERN WISCONSIN...

IN TABLE 1 BELOW, THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES
ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING...
                    VALID  PERIOD: 03/06/2016 - 06/04/2016

                                       :    CURRENT AND HISTORICAL
                                       :     CHANCES OF EXCEEDING
                                       :       FLOOD CATERGORIES
                                       :      AS A PERCENTAGE (%)
                      CATEGORICAL      :
                   FLOOD STAGES (FT)   :   MINOR    MODERATE   MAJOR
LOCATION           MINOR   MOD   MAJOR :  CS   HS   CS   HS   CS   HS
--------           -----  -----  ----- : ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---
:REDWOOD RIVER
REDWOOD FALLS        6.0   15.0   16.0 :  11   24   <5   <5   <5   <5
:COTTONWOOD RIVER
NEW ULM             11.0   13.0   16.0 :  32   33   16   18   <5   10
:MINNESOTA RIVER
MONTEVIDEO          14.0   16.0   17.5 :  21   41   <5   24   <5   14
GRANITE FALLS      888.5  893.5  896.5 :  <5    9   <5   <5   <5   <5
MANKATO             22.0   25.0   30.0 :  <5   12   <5    8   <5   <5
HENDERSON          732.0  736.0  739.5 :  10   20   <5    8   <5   <5
JORDAN              25.0   28.0   34.0 :  19   28   <5   17   <5   <5
SAVAGE             702.0  710.0  712.0 :  50   60   <5   13   <5    9
:LONG PRAIRIE RIVER
LONG PRAIRIE         7.0    8.0   10.0 :  10   22   <5    6   <5   <5
:SAUK RIVER
ST CLOUD             6.0    7.0    9.0 :   8   18   <5   10   <5   <5
:SOUTH FORK CROW RIVER
MAYER               11.0   15.0   16.0 :  12   27   <5   11   <5    9
DELANO              16.5   17.5   18.5 :   7   17   <5   13   <5   11
:CROW RIVER
ROCKFORD            10.0   12.0   14.0 :   7   19   <5   12   <5    8
:MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ST CLOUD             9.0   10.0   11.0 :   9   28   <5   15   <5    5
MINNEAPOLIS         16.0   16.5   17.0 :  <5    9   <5    8   <5    8
ST PAUL             14.0   15.0   17.0 :   8   22    6   18   <5   12
HASTINGS L/D#2      15.0   17.0   18.0 :  20   38    7   19   <5   14
RED WING L/D#3     680.5  681.5  683.0 :   6   18   <5   15   <5    9
RED WING            14.0   15.0   16.0 :   5   18   <5   13   <5    9
:ST CROIX RIVER
STILLWATER          87.0   88.0   89.0 :   8   19   <5   14   <5   10
:EAU CLAIRE RIVER
FALL CREEK          11.0   14.0   17.0 :  13   28    9   16   <5   <5
:CHIPPEWA RIVER
EAU CLAIRE         773.0  776.0  778.0 :  11   24   <5    8   <5   <5
DURAND              13.0   15.5   17.0 :  21   44    5   14   <5    7


LEGEND
CS = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)
HS = HISTORICAL SIMULATION
FT = FEET

IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID
TIME PERIOD.

...TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

                              CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES
                                 AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
                          VALID  PERIOD: 03/06/2016 - 06/04/2016
LOCATION              95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%     5%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:REDWOOD RIVER
REDWOOD FALLS         2.4    2.4    3.1    3.8    5.1    6.3    7.9
:COTTONWOOD RIVER
NEW ULM               5.9    6.5    8.1    9.7   12.3   13.7   15.6
:MINNESOTA RIVER
MONTEVIDEO            7.5    7.9    9.4   11.1   13.4   14.9   15.4
GRANITE FALLS       882.4  882.5  883.0  883.7  884.5  885.6  886.0
MANKATO               7.9    9.1   10.8   13.8   16.5   20.1   20.8
HENDERSON           721.1  722.2  724.4  727.1  729.3  732.0  732.9
JORDAN               13.1   13.9   17.2   21.5   24.2   26.6   27.6
SAVAGE              693.3  693.3  697.7  701.9  705.3  708.3  709.0
:LONG PRAIRIE RIVER
LONG PRAIRIE          4.2    4.4    5.0    5.7    6.3    6.9    7.3
:SAUK RIVER
ST CLOUD              3.1    3.1    3.4    4.1    5.0    5.8    6.3
:SOUTH FORK CROW RIVER
MAYER                 3.7    3.9    5.7    7.4    9.0   11.7   13.2
DELANO                8.3    8.5   10.4   12.2   13.9   16.1   16.9
:CROW RIVER
ROCKFORD              3.6    3.7    4.6    6.1    7.5    9.2   11.4
:MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ST CLOUD              6.2    6.2    6.7    7.2    7.9    9.0    9.6
MINNEAPOLIS           6.7    6.9    7.9    8.9   10.6   12.8   14.0
ST PAUL               4.6    4.8    6.5    8.8   11.1   13.5   15.3
HASTINGS L/D#2        7.1    7.2    9.0   11.9   14.3   16.3   17.5
RED WING L/D#3      672.7  673.0  674.1  676.0  677.2  679.9  681.0
RED WING              6.7    7.0    7.8    9.2   10.5   13.2   14.1
:ST CROIX RIVER
STILLWATER           78.0   78.3   80.0   82.3   84.0   86.4   87.9
:EAU CLAIRE RIVER
FALL CREEK            5.6    5.8    6.6    7.8    8.6   13.0   15.8
:CHIPPEWA RIVER
EAU CLAIRE          764.9  765.2  766.3  767.8  769.9  773.2  773.9
DURAND                8.5    9.0    9.9   11.3   12.8   15.1   15.6

IN TABLE 3 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
PROBABILITY OF FALLING BELOW THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR
THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

...TABLE 3--NONEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

                            CHANCE OF FALLING BELOW STAGES
                                 AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
                          VALID  PERIOD: 03/06/2016 - 06/04/2016
LOCATION              95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%     5%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:REDWOOD RIVER
REDWOOD FALLS         2.2    2.1    1.9    1.7    1.6    1.5    1.4
:COTTONWOOD RIVER
NEW ULM               4.4    4.0    3.4    2.9    2.5    2.4    2.3
:MINNESOTA RIVER
MONTEVIDEO            5.2    4.9    4.0    3.6    2.8    2.2    1.9
GRANITE FALLS       881.7  881.5  881.1  880.9  880.4  880.1  879.9
MANKATO               5.6    5.2    4.2    3.5    2.7    2.2    1.9
HENDERSON           718.7  717.7  716.4  715.2  713.9  713.1  712.7
JORDAN               10.0    8.8    7.7    6.5    5.4    4.7    4.4
SAVAGE              689.6  689.3  688.4  687.9  687.5  687.4  687.4
:LONG PRAIRIE RIVER
LONG PRAIRIE          2.9    2.9    2.9    2.3    2.0    1.8    1.6
:SAUK RIVER
ST CLOUD              2.9    2.7    2.4    1.9    1.6    1.3    1.2
:SOUTH FORK CROW RIVER
MAYER                 3.5    3.2    2.8    2.4    1.9    1.4    1.1
DELANO                8.1    7.8    7.1    6.5    6.0    5.5    5.3
:CROW RIVER
ROCKFORD              3.5    3.4    3.1    2.7    2.4    2.1    1.9
:MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ST CLOUD              5.3    5.3    5.3    5.2    4.8    4.4    4.2
MINNEAPOLIS           5.7    5.6    5.6    5.4    4.9    4.4    4.2
ST PAUL               4.0    3.9    3.8    3.5    3.4    3.2    3.1
HASTINGS L/D#2        6.2    6.0    5.6    5.2    4.7    4.5    4.5
RED WING L/D#3      671.7  671.5  670.5  669.5  668.2  667.0  667.0
RED WING              5.7    5.3    4.6    3.8    2.8    2.0    1.8
:ST CROIX RIVER
STILLWATER           76.6   76.4   76.0   75.6   75.4   75.2   75.2
:EAU CLAIRE RIVER
FALL CREEK            2.1    1.9    1.6    1.2    1.1    0.9    0.8
:CHIPPEWA RIVER
EAU CLAIRE          759.9  759.8  759.5  759.1  758.8  758.7  758.6
DURAND                4.4    4.2    3.8    3.3    2.8    2.4    2.4

OVER THE PAST TWO WEEKS...WHAT LITTLE SNOWPACK EXISTED OVER THE AREA
HAS CONTINUED TO WITHER...AND MUCH OF THE AREA IS NOW BARE GROUND.
SOIL MOISTURE REMAINS HIGH FROM EARLY WINTER RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY
FROM SOUTHERN MINNESOTA INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN.  BECAUSE OF THE LACK
OF SNOWPACK...THE GREATEST DRIVER FOR SPRING FLOODING IN
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN WOULD BE HEAVY
SPRING RAINFALL OVER THE FROZEN AND/OR SATURATED SOILS.

THE PROBABILITIES IN THE TABLES ABOVE ARE CALCULATED USING CURRENT
SNOWPACK AND SOIL MOISTURE COMBINED WITH HISTORICAL/NORMAL PROJECTED
RAINFALL AMOUNTS. SHOULD RAINFALL BE HEAVIER THAN NORMAL...THE
PROBABILITY OF SPRING FLOODING WILL INCREASE. PLEASE STAY TUNED TO
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS AND OUTLOOKS AS WE HEAD INTO
SPRING FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION.

FIND US ON THE INTERNET AT

HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TWINCITIES (LOWER CASE) FOR ALL WEATHER
INFORMATION. CLICK ON THE /RIVERS AND LAKES/ TAB FOR RIVER LEVEL
OBSERVATIONS...FORECASTS...AND LONG RANGE PROBABILITY GRAPHICS.

OR SEE HTTP://INNOVATION.SRH.NOAA.GOV/NWSWIDGET ON YOUR MOBILE
DEVICE.

THIS WILL BE THE FINAL SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK ISSUED UNLESS CONDITIONS
DRASTICALLY CHANGE.

$$



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