National Weather Service National Headquarters

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

000
FXUS66 KMTR 241735
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1035 AM PDT FRI MAY 24 2013

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:13 AM PDT FRIDAY...EARLY MORNING VISIBLE
SATELLITE PICTURE REVEALS BROKEN STRATUS COVERING PORTIONS OF THE
BAY AREA. MOST OF THE STRATUS IS CONFINED TO THE SAN MATEO
COAST...MONTEREY BAY AND INTO THE SALINAS VALLEY. EXPECT THE
STRATUS TO LINGERING THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS THEN DISSIPATE BY
THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS TODAY WILL BE BREEZY ALONG THE COAST...BUT
NOT AS STRONG AS YESTERDAY PER LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE AND SFC
PRESSURE GRADIENTS. IN ADDITION...850MB TEMPS WARM A FEW DEGREES
C. WARMER AIRMASS AND WEAKER WINDS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SLIGHTLY
WARMER TEMPERATURES (3-5 DEG) THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY AWAY
FROM THE COAST. HIGH TEMPS TODAY WILL BE IN THE 60S ALONG THE
COAST AND 70S TO NEAR 80 INLAND.

NO UPDATE IS PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

FOR THE UNOFFICIAL KICK OFF TO SUMMER AND THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY
WEEKEND IT WILL NOT FEEL MUCH LIKE SUMMER. A NEARLY STATIONARY
UPPER LOW OFF THE PAC NW COAST WILL KEEP UNSEASONABLY COOL
TEMPERATURES OVER THE BAY AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. IN FACT...BY
SUNDAY A DECENT MARINE LAYER DEVELOPS WITH POSSIBLE DRIZZLE ALONG
THE COAST. BY MONDAY...ANOTHER UPPER LOW ROTATES AROUND THE
STATIONARY LOW AND MOVES TOWARD CA. MODELS HAVE BEEN PRETTY
CONSISTENT BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE REGION ON MEMORIAL DAY.
RAIN CHANCES FIRST DEVELOP OVER THE N BAY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
THEN SPREAD SOUTH THROUGH THE CWA MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY.

SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF ON TUESDAY AND BY WEDNESDAY THE SYSTEM WILL
BE WELL OFF TO OUR EAST. GUIDANCE BEYOND THAT POINT IS HIGHLY
VARIABLE ALTHOUGH SEEMS TO BE CENTERED ON THE IDEA OF A WEAK RIDGE
BUILDING BACK TO OUR AREA. KEPT DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE
WEDNESDAY TO FRIDAY PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY REBOUND
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:30 AM PDT FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH MANY OF THE TERMINALS THROUGH AT LEAST THE EVENING
HOURS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE. ONSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. LATEST SHORT
TERM MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS PATCHY STRATUS AT MANY OF THE
TERMINALS LATE TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THE SHORT TERM GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
PERFORMING POORLY IN THE LAST FEW DAYS...SO STRATUS WAS ONLY ADDED
TO THE MONTEREY BAY. LOW CONFIDENCE.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST. MODERATE
TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. MODERATE WEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
GUSTS PEAKING AROUND 30 KT BETWEEN 21Z TODAY AND 03Z SATURDAY.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS... VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST
06Z. LOW CONFIDENCE. MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WITH A
RETURN TO STRATUS AND POSSIBLE IFR CIGS AS EARLY AS MIDNIGHT.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM
             SCA...SF BAY FROM 11 AM
             SCA...MRY BAY FROM 11 AM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: MM
AVIATION/MARINE: RILEY

VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.SANFRANCISCOBAYAREA.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA