478
FXUS66 KMTR 062101
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
201 PM PDT Mon May 6 2024

...New SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 124 PM PDT Mon May 6 2024

Seasonal temperatures to start the week with above normal temps
expected by Wednesday onward. Warm to end the week with minor Heat
Risk.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 124 PM PDT Mon May 6 2024

Another mostly clear day across the area with some high clouds
streaming through and some shallow cumulus over terrain in a few
of the coastal ranges. Similar to days previous, sufficient mid-
level stability will prevent anything interesting from happening
with the cumulus. Coming off of a chilly morning today,
temperatures will be near seasonal averages the next couple of
days, warming gradually. Really not much else to talk about in the
short term, as it look like a very pleasant couple of days with
little weather risk.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 124 PM PDT Mon May 6 2024

By Wednesday, high temps will be above average with afternoon
highs nearing 80 for inland areas. This trend will continue into
the weekend. Thursday and Friday look to be the warmest days where
inland locations could see their first 90 degrees of the year.
Most other will see temps in the 80s, while coastal locations will
be in the 70s. A bit of uncertainty in regard to the high temp
forecast for areas near the coast and bay shoreline, including San
Francisco. It appears we`ll have a moderate push of offshore winds
for inland areas late Wednesday into Thursday morning. We aren`t
expecting these onshore winds to completely erode the marine layer
like some strong events we see in the fall, but they could prove
to make Thursday`s high temp forecast difficult, especially for SF
and the east and north bay shorelines. Current forecast for these
areas Thursday is the upper 70s to lower 80s, but these temps may
need to be nudged upwards in the event we expect the offshore
component to last longer into Thursday. In regard to the offshore
winds, it appears to be a fairly short event (<1 day), and any
drying that occurs is not expected to reach critical levels.
Inland areas will see very limited RH recovery going into
Thursday, but should bounce back by Friday morning and into the
weekend as winds return to onshore. Guidance brings temps down
slightly into the weekend, but still above normal. All in all
should be a very nice second half of the week for everyone. That
being said, folks should still exercise caution when enjoying time
outdoors as this swing from below normal to above normal
temperatures can catch people off guard. Plan to pack some extra
water and sun protection if you`re planning to spend time
outdoors. And the most important preparation if you`re going to
the coast or relaxing poolside...SUNSCREEN!!!

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1037 AM PDT Mon May 6 2024

VFR at all stations except MRY and, potentially, SNS where stratus
is set to return overnight. HREF guidance shows stratus extending
inland on the Central Coast and into portions of the Bay Area.
Guidance was split on how far stratus would be transported inland
with some MVFR potential at SJC, SFO, and OAK overnight depending on
inland progression. Moderate to at times gusty W to NW winds through
this afternoon with winds gradually becoming more northerly over the
TAF period.

Vicinity of SFO...VFR through the TAF period. Guidance was split on
MVFR CIG development but a few indicated a short period of MVFR
conditions between 05-10Z. Confidence remains low so did not go full
out in the TAFs yet. Any CIGs that do develop look to scatter out
after 10Z with VFR expected afterwards. Moderate W to NW winds will
become more northerly throughout the TAF period.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR transitioning to MVFR. Moderate
confidence that stratus will move inland along the Central Coast
with MVFR CIGs expected at MRY and borderline MVFR/VFR CIGs at SNS.
Guidance was split on if MVFR CIGs would develop at SNS but if MVFR
CIGs do develop 09-15Z will be the most likely timeframe. Moderate W
winds this afternoon will weaken overnight to light to moderate.

&&

.MARINE...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 1037 AM PDT Mon May 6 2024

Fair weather and moderate west to northwesterly winds will
prevail today. Northerly winds will strengthen increase overnight
as surface high pressure builds and moves into the Pacific
Northwest. Near gale force sustained winds and gale force gusts
increase in likelihood and area coverage Tuesday and Wednesday.
Guidance indicates the strongest winds will be across the northern
coastal outer waters with high end gale force gusts currently
expected. Gale watches have been issued along the Big Sur  coast
and outer coastal waters for Tuesday night into Wednesday  night.
During this same time frame, significant wave heights will  begin
to build to heights of up to 15 feet. As such, conditions  will be
extremely hazardous for all but the largest vessels  Tuesday and
Wednesday and extreme caution should be exercised  during this
time.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for Mry Bay-
     Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM to 9 PM PDT Tuesday for Mry Bay.

     Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM Tuesday to 3 AM PDT Wednesday for
     Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM Tuesday to 3 AM PDT Wednesday for
     Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Tuesday for Pt Pinos to Pt
     Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

     Gale Watch from late tonight through late Tuesday night for Pt
     Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM to 3 PM PDT Tuesday for Pt Arena
     to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.

     Gale Watch from Tuesday afternoon through late Tuesday night for
     Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Behringer
LONG TERM....Behringer
AVIATION...Kennedy
MARINE...Kennedy

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