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000
FXUS66 KMTR 222203
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
303 PM PDT WED MAY 22 2013

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...AS EXPECTED COOLER
TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO BLANKET ALL OF THE CWA AT
THIS HOUR WITH A FEW SPOTS RUNNING 4 TO 7 DEGREES UNDER THE VALUES
FROM TUESDAY. THANKS TO A FAVORABLE GRADIENT AND A LACK OF A
WELL-DEFINED MARINE LAYER, ALL LOCATIONS WERE ABLE TO ENJOY
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. ONE MINOR SURPRISE IS THE WINDS HAVE NOT BEEN
GUSTING AS MUCH AS FORECAST. EVEN WINDY SPOTS SUCH AS SFO HAVE
JUST DISPLAYED THEIR TYPICAL SEABREEZE VALUES. SHOULD BE ANOTHER
CLEAR NIGHT FOR ALMOST ALL SPOTS ALTHOUGH WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF
UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S LOOKING LIKELY FOR SOME OF THE NORTH BAY
VALLEYS.

FOR THURSDAY THROUGH THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND, AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER THE PACNW WILL CONTINUE TO SPIKE AROUND THAT AREA WITH PIECES
OF ENERGY ROTATING AROUND IT. THIS WILL HELP TO KEEP US IN A COOL
AND DRY FLOW INTO MONDAY. HIGHS WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE 60S AT THE
COAST WITH 70S INLAND.

ON TUESDAY, A LONGWAVE TROF WILL GO ACROSS OUR AREA AND KEEP THE
COOLER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS IN PLACE. IN ADDITION, PRECIPITATION
WILL SPREAD DOWN THE COAST AND BE CLOSE TO OUR AREA. SIMILAR TO
THE LAST STORM, CLIMATOLOGY STRONGLY FAVORS THE CWA STAYING DRY,
ALTHOUGH LIGHT RAINFALL THIS TIME OF YEAR IS CERTAINLY NOT THAT
RARE OF AN EVENT. VARIOUS GUIDANCE HAS SLIGHTLY BACKED OFF ON
RAIN, ALTHOUGH WITH THE PROXIMITY OF THE TROF, FEEL THAT KEEPING
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS STILL A GOOD CALL. DID MENTION CHANCE POPS FOR
THE NORTH BAY, BUT EVEN THERE ODDS FAVOR DRY CONDITIONS AT THIS
TIME. ANY PRECIP AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LESS THAN A TENTH.

BEHIND THE TROF, A ZONAL FLOW WILL SET UP. HIGHS WILL REMAIN A BIT
COOLER THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:15 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS. THE BIGGER STORY
WILL BE THE GUSTY WINDS. BREEZY CONDITIONS EXIST NOW...BUT WINDS
SHOULD RAMP UP THIS AFTERNOON.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR. NO REAL CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED STRENGTHEN TO AROUND 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT AFTER
20Z. AN AIRPORT WEATHER WARNING FOR WINDS REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 20Z
(1 PM PDT) THIS AFTERNOON TO 04Z (9 PM PDT) THIS EVENING.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR. MODERATE AND LOCALLY GUSTY
WEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. STRONGEST
WINDS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM FROM 9 PM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM FROM 9 PM
             GLW...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM UNTIL 9 PM
             GLW...PIGEON PT TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM UNTIL 9 PM
             SCA...SF BAY UNTIL MIDNIGHT
             SCA...MRY BAY UNTIL MIDNIGHT

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL/RILEY
AVIATION/MARINE: MM

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