000
FXUS66 KMTR 220819
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
119 AM PDT Mon Apr 22 2024

...New SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 118 AM PDT Mon Apr 22 2024

Warm inland temperatures expected through today before cooler,
unsettled weather returns Tuesday and continues through late week.
Light rain chances for Thursday night and into Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 118 AM PDT Mon Apr 22 2024

Mostly sunny conditions are expected inland today with temperatures
expected to warm into the mid 70s to low 80s. Meanwhile, a southerly
surge is likely to occur by late morning or early afternoon which
would limit warming to the upper 50s to mid 60s. As stratus moves
inland, orographic lift is likely to produce widespread drizzle in
coastal regions and in the favored west/southwest facing slopes.
However, precipitation will be light and generally only produce a few
hundredths of an inch.

Coastal drizzle will continue into tonight and early Tuesday morning
with temperatures expected to cool into the mid 40s to low 50s
regionwide. Widespread cloud cover is likely to spread into the
valleys as well (minus the Santa Clara Valley).

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 118 AM PDT Mon Apr 22 2024

Temperatures on Tuesday drop by 10-15 degrees across the interior
with highs generally in the 60s as an upper level low approaches the
region. Coastal drizzle is possible Tuesday night into Wednesday
morning as well with aforementioned low pressure offshore. The low
pressure system will move inland Wednesday night into Thursday
morning with unsettled conditions to persist.

Thursday night into Friday a shortwave trough will move through the
region and bring chances for light rain. Precipitation amounts have
trended downward as of this morning, with only a few hundredths of
an inch expected regionwide. Afternoon temperatures through this
period are forecast to be in the upper 50s to upper 60s with
overnight lows largely in the mid 40s to low 50s. Ever so slight
warming is expected for this upcoming weekend with interior areas
reaching the low 70s with drier conditions returning.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1057 PM PDT Sun Apr 21 2024

VFR through the TAF period for most terminals, with the exception
of Monterey Bay who are likely to see LIFR/IFR CIGs as stratus
begins to surge up the coast. Most terminals tonight will see
clear skies and generally light winds. Into the afternoon of
Monday, winds will become more southwesterly and breezy to
moderate ahead of an approaching low pressure system. These
elevated winds will last longer into the late night before finally
diminishing just beyond the TAF period. Around the end of the TAF
period, stratus will begin to start pushing inland, bringing MVFR
CIGs to the North Bay and Monterey Bay terminals to start.

Vicinity of SFO...VFR lasts through Monday night. Winds will turn to
flow out of the southwest in the afternoon Monday, with gusts up to
20 knots. Winds only ease slightly come nightfall, but gusts do
diminish. Stratus does not appear to impact the terminal until the
first hours of Tuesday morning, bringing MVFR conditions.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...LIFR/IFR conditions develop in the early
morning of Monday. Satellite currently shows clear skies over the
terminals, but near the southern end of the Monterey county coast,
stratus is slowly creeping its way northwards. Once stratus begins
to impact MRY Bay terminals, it is expected to last at least through
the late morning Monday. After the late morning, VFR should return
for a few hours alongside breezy W/SW winds. MVFR conditions develop
in the late afternoon to early evening Monday as stratus percolates
inland once more.

&&

.MARINE...
(Tonight through next Friday)
Issued at 335 PM PDT Sun Apr 21 2024

Moderate to locally strong northerly winds prevail over the
coastal waters thanks to strong high pressure to the north. Winds
will be strongest over the outer waters north of Point Reyes.
Fresh northerly swell accompanies the northerly winds. Winds ease
Sunday night and switch to southerly starting Tuesday ahead of an
approaching trough. Small southerly swell continues to move
through the waters this weekend and through the upcoming work
week.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT early this morning for Pt
     Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT this morning for Pt Arena to
     Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RGass
LONG TERM....RGass
AVIATION...AC
MARINE...MM

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