000
FXUS66 KMTR 171743
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1043 AM PDT MON JUN 17 2013

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:06 AM PDT MONDAY...ONLY SOME PATCHY STRATUS
REMAINS ALONG THE COAST AND BY JUNE STANDARDS WERE OFF TO A PRETTY
SUNNY START. THE ONSHORE GRADIENT FROM SFO TO SAC IS 2.8 MB WITH
GUSTY WEST WINDS BLOWING THROUGH THE DELTA IN RESPONSE TO A DEEP
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST TODAY.
THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL INLAND WITH NO REAL HOT WEATHER TO SPEAK OF. AS THE
UPPER TROUGH AXIS SWINGS ONSHORE TO OUR NORTH OVERNIGHT 850 MB
TEMPS ACROSS THE NORTH BAY WILL DROP BELOW 10 CELSIUS. THUS
COOLING ALOFT IN COMBINATION WITH GUSTY NW WINDS IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER OVER THE OCEAN SHOULD KEEP WIDESPREAD STRATUS FORMATION MORE
PATCHY IN NATURE VERSUS A LARGE STRATIFIED CLOUD DECK OVER THE
OCEAN...SO WOULD EXPECT ONLY PATCHY BAYSIDE CLOUDS ONCE AGAIN FOR
TUESDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
SEASONAL NORMALS AT LEAST THROUGH WEDS. A NOTED WARMING TREND
SHOULD BEGIN BY THURSDAY AS THE TROUGH AXIS SWINGS INLAND AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS WITH MORE FAVORABLE NORTHERLY/DOWNSLOPE WINDS
ACROSS THE BAY AREA. INLAND HIGHS SHOULD WARM BACK INTO THE UPPER
80S AND LOWER 90S BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR AND MILD WEATHER EVEN NEAR THE COAST. BY LATE IN
THE WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK THE RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN WITH A
RETURN TO ONSHORE FLOW AND SEASONABLE OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS FOR NEXT WEEK. LONG RANGE SOLUTIONS TRYING TO BUILD A STRONG
AND WARM RIDGE OVER THE STATE AND MUCH OF THE WEST BY THE END OF
THE MONTH...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR MODEL TRENDS ON EVOLVING LONG
WAVE PATTERN AS JULY IS USUALLY WHEN STAGNANT UPPER PATTERN
DEVELOPS THAT WOULD FAVOR FOUR-CORNERS HIGH.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:40 AM PDT MONDAY...CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE
TERMINALS THIS MORNING WITH PATCHY STRATUS ALONG THE COAST. LOW
CLOUDS PILING UP ALONG SAN MATEO COAST HOWEVER CLOUDS ARE BEING
MOSTLY BLOCKED BY THE COASTAL HILLS. ONSHORE GRADIENT SFO-SAC
FORECAST TO REACH OVER 5 MB THIS AFTERNOON LEADING TO GUSTY WEST
WINDS. EARLY RETURN OF STRATUS LIKELY WITH STRONG ONSHORE FLOW AND
APPROACHING TROUGH.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. WEST WINDS TO
AROUND 20-25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30 THIS AFTERNOON. EARLY RETURN
THIS EVENING WITH PATCHY CIGS POSSIBLE AS EARLY AS 22Z WITH MORE
SOLID OVC AFTER 01Z.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...FEW TO SCT ACROSS THE APPROACH FOR NEXT TWO
HOURS AS SOME CLOUDS FILTER OVER THE RIDGE LINE...OTHERWISE SIMILAR
TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR THROUGH THIS EVENING. STRATUS
RETURNING AROUND 04Z.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM
             SCA...SF BAY FROM 3 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RWW
AVIATION/MARINE: AC

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