000
FXUS66 KMTR 162137
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
237 PM PDT THU MAY 16 2013

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 02:30 PM PDT THURSDAY...SHOWERS HAVE QUICKLY
COME TO AN END THIS AFTERNOON AS A BOUNDARY THAT MOVED THROUGH THE
AREA THIS MORNING QUICKLY HEADS EAST. RADAR SHOWED WIDESPREAD RAIN
BUT WITH MOST OF THE MOISTURE CONTAINED IN THE MID LEVELS LITTLE
PRECIP ENDED UP REACHING THE GROUND. MOST AREAS RECEIVED A TRACE.
THE ONLY AIRPORTS IN THE AREA WITH A MEASURABLE AMOUNT WERE SJC
WITH .01 AND LIVERMORE WITH .02. SOME OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN
THE EAST BAY REACHED A FEW HUNDREDTHS.

BEHIND THE BOUNDARY THERE IS A GOOD MIX OF CLOUDS AT DIFFERENT
LEVELS THOUGH THERE IS SIGNIFICANT CLEARING IN THE NORTH BAY. WITH
THE GREATLY INCREASED BOUNDARY LAYER RH EXPECT RETURN OF LOW
CLOUDS TONIGHT. COOL DAY ON TRACK FOR TOMORROW AS THE UPPER
TROUGH DIGS FURTHER SOUTH HOWEVER TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB UPWARD
AGAIN STARTING SATURDAY AS A RIDGE BUILDS TO THE WEST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. 850 MB TEMPS INCREASE FROM THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS UP TO
THE MID TEENS BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY
AND MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 70 AT THE COAST TO 80S AROUND THE
BAY AND INLAND.

TEMPERATURES PEAK MONDAY BEFORE HEADING ON A DOWNWARD SLIDE AS AN
UPPER LOW FROM THE SUB ARCTIC DIGS SOUTH. GFS DEPICTS THE STORM
GOING FAR SOUTH WITH THE LOW CENTER OVER THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
COAST BY NEXT WEEKEND. ECMWF MEANWHILE KEEPS THE ENERGY FURTHER
NORTH PREVENTING ANY PRECIP FROM REACHING THE CWA. EITHER SOLUTION
WOULD BRING TEMPERATURES BACK TO NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF WEEK
AND POSSIBLY BELOW BY WEEKS END.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:50 AM PDT THURSDAY...INTERESTING AND TRICKY
FORECAST TODAY AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIDES THROUGH THE
REGION. LOW CLOUDS AND CIGS LINGER FROM SAN FRANCISCO BAY
SOUTHWARD WITH GRADUAL CLEARING OVER THE N BAY. GIVEN RECENT
TRENDS AND VISIBLE SATELLITE WILL KEEP CIGS LINGERING AROUND SAN
FRANCISCO BAY THROUGH 19Z...19-20Z NEAR KSJC AND 20Z OR LATER
AROUND MONTEREY BAY. CONF IS PRETTY LOW AND WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE
CLEARING OVER THE NORTH BAY MOVING SOUTH. WILL BRING MARINE LAYER
AND CIGS BACK IN TONIGHT AT ALL TERMINALS.

VICINITY OF KSFO...CIGS AROUND 1K FEET FOR KSFO...BUT OTHER PARTS
OF THE BAY REPORTING VFR CONDITIONS. EXPECTING A GRADUAL TREND
TOWARD VFR FOR MUCH OF THE BAY BETWEEN NOW AND 19Z...MAY BE QUICKER
DEPENDING UPON THE CLEARING OVER THE N BAY. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS
AT KSFO THIS AFTERNOON. CIGS RETURN OVERNIGHT.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...CIGS HIGHER THAN KSFO AND EVEN SEEING HINTS
OF CLEARING ON THE WEBCAM. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...IFR-MVFR CIGS CONTINUE TO PREVAIL
AND WILL DO SO THROUGH 19-20Z FOR MUCH OF MONTEREY BAY. EXPECTING
LIFTING CIGS THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTY WINDS. CIGS RETURN EARLY TONIGHT.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
             SCA...SF BAY UNTIL 8 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: AC
AVIATION/MARINE: MM

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