000
FXUS66 KMTR 150001
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
501 PM PDT TUE MAY 14 2013

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 2:30 PM PDT TUESDAY...CLOUDS HAVE BURNED OFF
FROM MOST AREAS ALTHOUGH STILL HAVE A FEW PATCHES ALONG THE
MONTEREY COASTLINE. MARINE LAYER HAD JUMPED TO AROUND 2,300 FEET
AROUND NOON AND HAS SLIGHTLY LOWERED SINCE THEN TO AROUND 2,000
FEET. TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING CLOSE TO VALUES FROM YESTERDAY WITH
GENERALLY 60S AT THE COAST TO 70S INLAND.

WITH THE WESTERLY SURFACE FLOW FORECAST TO BE CLOSE TO 4 MB
OVERNIGHT AND THE NORTHER COMPONENT EXPECTED TO DECREASE TO AROUND
3 MB...MAY END UP SEEING POCKETS OF CLOUDS TONIGHT. LOWS WILL
MOSTLY BE IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

TEMPERATURES WILL COOL OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS A LONGWAVE
TROF SLOWLY ADVANCES TOWARD OUR AREA. 500 MB HEIGHTS CURRENTLY
AROUND 580 DM WILL DROP BACK TO 566 DM ON THURSDAY WHILE TEMPS AT
THAT LEVEL WILL DROP FROM AROUND 17C TO JUST 7-9C. HIGHS WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S FOR MOST COASTAL SPOTS WITH MID 60S TO
LOWER 70S FOR MANY INLAND LOCATIONS.

TEMPERATURES WILL WARM GOING INTO THE WEEKEND PLUS THE FIRST PART
OF NEXT WORK WEEK AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
PACIFIC. 500 MB HEIGHTS WILL INCREASE BACK TO AROUND 588 DM WHILE
TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE TO 20-22C AT THE SAME TIME. BY MONDAY
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 70S AT THE COAST WITH 80S TO LOWER 90S
INLAND. ALSO AT THE SURFACE THE NORTHERLY GRADIENT WILL INCREASE
AND BY SUNDAY OR MONDAY THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR AN OFFSHORE WIND
TO DEVLOP. THE GOOD NEWS IS RIGHT NOW THE PROJECTED GRADIENT
VALUES ARE CONSIDERABLY LESS THAN WHAT TRIGGERED THE LAST RED FLAG
EVENT.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:52 PM PDT TUESDAY...THE AIRMASS IS DRIER
AREA-WIDE THIS AFTERNOON COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO. STRONG ACV-SFO
AND SFO-SAC GRADIENTS PREVAIL. VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS ONLY A COUPLE
OF SMALL PATCHES OF STRATUS NEAR MONTEREY PENINSULA AND ALONG THE
BIG SUR COAST.

VICINITY OF KSFO...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR CONTINUES THIS
EVENING MOSTLY BECAUSE THERE IS A LACK OF STRATUS OUT OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS AND THE ACV-SFO GRADIENT IS HOLDING AT 6 MB. TEMPO
MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE WED MORNING 10Z-14Z. OTHERWISE VFR IS
FORECAST WED.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE VFR
CONTINUES TIL 02Z FOLLOWED BY MVFR CIGS TONIGHT.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM UNTIL 3 AM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM
             SCA...SF BAY UNTIL 9 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL
AVIATION/MARINE: CANEPA

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