Drought Information Statement
Issued by NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6

000
AXUS76 KMTR 061927
DGTMTR
CAC001-013-041-053-055-069-075-081-085-087-097-070130-

DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1127 AM PST THU MAR 6 2014

...US DROUGHT MONITOR STATUS FOR BAY AREA COUNTIES IMPROVES BUT DEFICITS AND UNCERTAINTY REMAIN...

BREAKING NEWS...

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR UPDATE, RELEASED TODAY, HAS IMPROVED
DROUGHT CONDITIONS LOCALLY IN MONTEREY COUNTY AND IN THE NORTH
BAY. RECENT RAINFALL, PARTICULARLY COPIOUS IN THE SANTA LUCIA
MOUNTAINS OF MONTEREY COUNTY OVER THE PAST WEEK, IS THE PRIMARY
DRIVER BEHIND THE CHANGE. REGIONAL DEFICITS IN LONG-TERM RAINFALL
ACCUMULATION PERSIST. AT THE SAME TIME, THE CLIMATE PREDICTION
CENTER HAS RELEASED A STATEMENT OUTLINING INCREASED CONFIDENCE
THAT EL NINO MAY DEVELOP LATER THIS YEAR, IN THE SUMMER OR FALL,
WITH UNCERTAIN RAMIFICATIONS.

SYNOPSIS...

THE MOST SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THIS WEEK`S DROUGHT MONITOR IS THE
TWO NOTABLE IMPROVEMENTS IN THE SANTA LUCIA MOUNTAINS OF MONTEREY
COUNTY AND IN THE RUSSIAN RIVER BASIN IN SONOMA COUNTY. THE
POLYGON DEPICTING IMPROVEMENT TO D2 CONDITIONS IN THE NORTH BAY
ALSO EXTENDS OUTSIDE THE RUSSIAN RIVER BASIN SLIGHTLY, TO INCLUDE
NORTHERN MARIN COUNTY, PETALUMA AND SONOMA VALLEY BASINS, A SMALL
SLIVER OF WESTERN NAPA COUNTY, AND SOME OF THE COASTAL SONOMA
COUNTY MOUNTAINS IN THE GUALALA RIVER BASIN AND OTHER PROXIMAL
DRAINAGES. THE COASTAL RANGES OF MONTEREY COUNTY (SANTA LUCIAS)
WERE IMPROVED FROM D4 TO D3 CONDITIONS. IMPROVEMENTS ARE LARGELY A
REFLECTION OF RAINFALL TOTALS ACCUMULATED OVER THE PAST WEEK, AND
MOST NOTABLY, THE STORM SYSTEM OF FEB. 26 - MARCH 1. MANY AREAS
AROUND THE 11-COUNTY SERVICE AREA RECEIVED AT LEAST SEVERAL INCHES
OF RAIN OVER THE 4-DAY STORM SYSTEM. BECAUSE OF THE STORM TRACK,
MONTEREY, SANTA CRUZ, AND SANTA CLARA WERE THE BIG WINNERS
COMPARED TO OTHER BAY AREA COUNTIES. BOTH SANTA CRUZ AND SANTA
CLARA COUNTIES RECEIVED UPWARDS OF 5-6 INCHES IN HIGHER ELEVATION
SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAIN DRAINAGES, WHILE HIGHER ELEVATION RAIN GAGES
IN MONTEREY COUNTY`S SANTA LUCIA MOUNTAINS READ WELL ABOVE THE 6
INCH RANGE. MANY OF THE MOUNTAIN PEAKS NEARLY RECEIVED 10 INCHES,
WITH MINING RIDGE RECEIVING 12.44 INCHES!

THE ADJUSTMENT TO THE DROUGHT MONITOR DOES NOT TAKE INTO ACCOUNT
THE RAINS THAT FELL DURING THE LAST 24+ HOURS. MANY BAY AREA
LOCATIONS, UP UNTIL TODAY, CONTINUED TO RECEIVE SPORADIC LIGHT
RAIN AND DRIZZLE THROUGH THIS WORK WEEK. WHILE THE RAINFALL TOTALS
FROM THESE LIGHT RAIN EVENTS ARE NOT EXCEPTIONAL, THEY ARE
PROVIDING ADDED MOISTURE ON TOP OF AT LEAST SEMI-SATURATED GROUND
IN MANY LOCATIONS, AND LITTLE BY LITTLE, ARE IMPROVING CONDITIONS
SLIGHTLY. DESPITE LAST WEEK`S BIG STORM SYSTEM AND THE SUBSEQUENT
LIGHT RAINS AND DRIZZLE, HOWEVER, LONG-STANDING RAINFALL DEFICITS
ARE STILL QUITE HIGH AND DROUGHT CONDITIONS AND ASSOCIATED IMPACTS
CONTINUE TO PERSIST.

IF YOU WOULD LIKE MORE INFO ON THE REASONS FOR THE CHANGE AND
DROUGHT STATUS, IT CAN BE FOUND HERE:
HTTP://DROUGHTMONITOR.UNL.EDU/HOME/NARRATIVE.ASPX.


CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER AND EL NINO...

THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER ISSUED AN "EL NINO WATCH" TODAY.
THIS MEANS "CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF EL
NINO OR LA NINA CONDITIONS WITHIN THE NEXT SIX MONTHS." THE
DEVELOPMENT OF AN EL NINO EVENT IS POSSIBLE, BUT NOT INEVITABLE.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR ANY EVENT WILL INCREASE AS THE POSSIBLE
EVENT GETS CLOSER IN TIME AND MODEL REFINEMENT CLARIFIES POTENTIAL
CONDITIONS. AT THIS POINT THERE IS A SLIGHTLY GREATER THAN 50%
CHANCE OF EL NINO DEVELOPING, WHEREAS EACH YEAR THERE IS TYPICALLY
A LIKELIHOOD OF ABOUT 30% THAT EL NINO WILL DEVELOP. IT IS
ENTIRELY TOO EARLY TO PREDICT THE STRENGTH -- ESPECIALLY BECAUSE
IT IS NOT CERTAIN AT THIS POINT IN TIME THAT AN EL NINO WILL, IN
FACT, DEVELOP. THIS IS A CRITICAL PIECE OF THE PUZZLE FOR THE SAN
FRANCISCO BAY AREA.

WINTER RAINFALL AMOUNTS CAN VARY DEPENDING ON HOW STRONG OR WEAK
AN EL NINO IS. IF WE TRANSITION TO EL NINO, THERE IS NO GUARANTEE
IT WILL RESULT IN MUCH OF AN IMPACT TO THE DROUGHT FOR CA. IT IS
MOSTLY STRONG EL NINOS THAT SHOW A POSITIVE RELATIONSHIP WITH
INCREASED RAIN AND SNOW, BUT THAT INCREASE IS MOSTLY FOR SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA. THE PRIMARY RESERVOIRS THAT HELP MITIGATE THE DROUGHT
CONDITIONS ARE LOCATED IN CENTRAL AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. WEAK EL
NINO DOES NOT PRESENT A SIGNIFICANT POSITIVE RELATIONSHIP TO
INCREASED PRECIPITATION FOR THE STATE.

DROUGHT ASSISTANCE...

INSTEAD OF LABORING THROUGH AN ALREADY BROKEN RECORD OF DROUGHT
CONDITIONS AND IMPACTS, WE WOULD INSTEAD LIKE TO FORWARD AND
DISTRIBUTE DROUGHT RESOURCES TO IMPACTED MEMBERS OF OUR COMMUNITY
THAT MAY NOT BE AWARE OF CERTAIN OPPORTUNITIES. THE FOCUS HERE IS
ON RURAL AND SMALLER WATER DISTRICTS AND THE AGRICULTURAL
COMMUNITY, BUT SOME OF THE RESOURCES LISTED MAY ALSO BE APPLICABLE
TO LARGER WATER PURVEYORS, GROUPS, ETC. WE WERE MADE AWARE OF
THESE RESOURCES THROUGH A STATE-WIDE DROUGHT FORUM IN SACRAMENTO
WHICH OCCURRED LAST WEEK. HERE THEY ARE:

USDA RURAL DEVELOPMENT PROGRAM:
ASSISTS ELIGIBLE RURAL COMMUNITIES RECOVER FROM AN EMERGENCY THAT
HAS RESULTED IN A DECLINE IN CAPACITY TO PROVIDE SAFE, RELIABLE
DRINKING WATER FOR HOUSEHOLD AND BUSINESSES. APPLY FOR EMERGENCY
COMMUNITY WATER ASSISTANCE GRANTS (ECWAG).
WWW.RURDEV.USDA.GOV/CA
WWW.RURDEV.USDA.GOV/UWP-ECWAG.HTM

CALIFORNIA RURAL WATER ASSOCIATION:
AN ADVOCATE FOR RURAL AND SMALL WATER SYSTEMS, AND PROVIDES
TECHNICAL ASSISTANCE FOR OPERATIONS, MAINTENANCE, AND MANAGEMENT,
INCLUDING PLANNING SUPPORT AND EMERGENCIES RELATED TO A DECREASE
IN WATER SUPPLY.
WWW.CADROUGHTPREP.NET
WWW.CALRURALWATER.ORG/P/REQUEST-ASSISTANCE/

CALIFORNIA DEPARTMENT OF PUBLIC HEALTH:
FUNDING PROGRAMS INCLUDE PROP 84 (EMERGENCY GRANT FUNDING SECTION
75021, HTTP://WWW.CDPH.CA.GOV/SERVICES/FUNDING/PAGES/PROP84.ASPX),
DRINKING WATER STATE REVOLVING FUND (DWSRF,
HTTP://WWW.CDPH.CA.GOV/SERVICES/FUNDING/PAGES/SRF.ASPX).
CONTACT: DWPFUNDS@CDPH.CA.GOV.

USDA-NRCS ASISTENCIA EN CONSERVACION PARA LOS AGRICULTORES Y
GANADEROS EN CALIFORNIA: NRCS TIENE OFICINAS UBICADAS EN 55 DE LOS
CONDADOS DE CALIFORNIA. TODAS LAS OFICINAS ESTAN TOMANDO
APLICACIONES PARA LA ASISTENCIA DEBIDO A LA SEQUIA. UBICA TU
OFICINA EN LA PAGINA WEB:
HTTP://OFFICES.SC.EGOV.USDA.GOV/LOCATOR/APP?STATE=CA


SHORT TERM FORECAST...

LINGERING SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING AROUND THE GREATER
MONTEREY BAY AREA, ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH
THE DAY IN THE NORTH BAY. WE EXPECT DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS TO
RETURN BY FRIDAY AND CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY. THE NEXT FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE SERVICE AREA ON SUNDAY OR MONDAY, BUT LITTLE
RAIN IS EXPECTED AND WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED TO AREAS NORTH OF THE
GOLDEN GATE. A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO RETURN BY NEXT
MONDAY AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH MIDWEEK, RELEGATING US TO A DRY
BUT SEASONABLY MILD WEATHER PATTERN.

EXTENDED OUTLOOKS...

THE EXTENDED RAINFALL OUTLOOKS FOR THE AREA SHOW BELOW NORMAL
PRECIPITATION PROBABILITY FOR MID-MARCH, SUGGESTING THAT HOPES FOR
REGIONAL DROUGHT-BUSTING PRECIPITATION MAY REST ON APRIL SHOWERS
RATHER THAN THE REMAINDER OF A "MIRACLE MARCH".

KEY POINTS TO REMEMBER...

* LARGER RESERVOIR AND GROUNDWATER SUPPLY SOURCES ARE STILL
  STRAINED REGIONALLY AND STATE-WIDE, DESPITE THE GENEROUS
  RAINFALL FROM LAST WEEK.

* COASTAL MOUNTAIN RANGES WERE THE BIG WINNERS OVER THE PAST
  WEEK, ESPECIALLY IN THE SANTA CRUZ AND SANTA LUCIA MOUNTAINS.

* MINOR ADDITIONS TO RECENT RAINFALL TOTALS WILL PERSIST OVER THE
  NEXT FEW DAYS, BUT A DRY PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO RETURN BY NEXT
  WEEK.

* LONG-TERM DEFICITS, ESPECIALLY REGIONALLY AND STATE-WIDE, ARE
  FAR FROM BEING RECAPTURED.

* HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IN MID-MARCH.

* HISTORICAL LONG-TERM DEFICITS CONTINUE - IN SOME CASES LASTING
  YEARS.

HELPFUL LINKS...

6-10 DAY RAINFALL OUTLOOK: HTTP://1.USA.GOV/1ESGORJ
8-14 DAY RAINFALL OUTLOOK: HTTP://1.USA.GOV/1IDYY58
LATEST CA DROUGHT MONITOR: HTTP://BIT.LY/1CFJHZQ
CALIFORNIA DROUGHT RESOURCES: HTTP://WWW.WRH.NOAA.GOV/WRH/DROUGHTCA.PHP
CALIFORNIA WATER CONSERVATION: HTTP://WWW.SAVEOURH2O.ORG/

NEXT ISSUANCE DATE...

THE NEXT DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED IN RESPONSE
TO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN CONDITIONS AND/OR CHANGES IN DROUGHT
LEVELS.

&&

RELATED WEBSITES...

NORTH AMERICAN DROUGHT MONITOR:
HTTP://WWW.NCDC.NOAA.GOV/TEMP-AND-PRECIP/DROUGHT/NADM/INDEX.HTML
U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR:
    HTTP://DROUGHTMONITOR.UNL.EDU/
U.S. DROUGHT PORTAL:
HTTP://WWW.DROUGHT.GOV/DROUGHT/
NATIONAL DROUGHT MITIGATION CENTER:
HTTP://DROUGHT.UNL.EDU/
CALIFORNIA DROUGHT PAGE:
HTTP://WATERSUPPLYCONDITIONS.WATER.CA.GOV/
ASSOCIATION OF CALIFORNIA WATER AGENCIES:
HTTP://WWW.ACWA.COM/
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO/MONTEREY:
HTTP://WWW.WRH.NOAA.GOV/MTR/
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER:
HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/DROUGHT/
CALIFORNIA DATA EXCHANGE CENTER:
HTTP://CDEC.WATER.CA.GOV/
CALIFORNIA NEVADA RIVER FORECAST CENTER:
HTTP://WWW.CNRFC.NOAA.GOV/



ACKNOWLEDGMENTS...

CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER
DROUGHT MONITOR
UNITED STATES GEOLOGICAL SURVEY
CALIFORNIA DEPARTMENT OF WATER RESOURCES
CALIFORNIA STATE CLIMATOLOGIST
CAL FIRE
ASSOCIATION OF CALIFORNIA WATER AGENCIES
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE S.F./MONTEREY BAY AREAS
CALIFORNIA NEVADA RIVER FORECAST CENTER
U.S. BUREAU OF RECLAMATION



QUESTIONS AND COMMENTS...

PLEASE REFER ALL QUESTIONS TO W-MTR.WEBMASTER@NOAA.GOV

$$

STRUDLEY

WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO






USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.