098
FXUS63 KOAX 122329
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
629 PM CDT Sun May 12 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Storms are likely for portions of the area this afternoon
  through Monday, and again on Wednesday-Thursday. Nothing
  looks particularly severe at this time.

- Seasonal daytime temperatures are expected through much of
  next week, though temperatures approach 80 next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 233 PM CDT Sun May 12 2024

A cu field is going up across the area this afternoon which will
lead to shower and thunderstorm development as an upper-level
trough approaches from the west. The surface low will pass to
the south, leading to greater chances for showers and storms
across the southern half of our area. Showers and storms will
continue overnight tonight into Monday morning finally moving
off to the east by Monday afternoon. We`ll see winds increase
out of the northeast on the back side of this system during the
evening with temperatures dropping down into the mid 40s Monday
night.

We`ll get a short break on Tuesday as a transitory ridge moves
across our area bringing clear skies and warming temperatures
back up into the mid-to-upper 70s. Beyond Tuesday the active
pattern looks to continue as the train of troughs continue
moving through the Central US. Nothing looks particularly
severe, but there will be additional chances for showers and
storms Wednesday through Thursday and again Saturday into
Sunday. Temperatures stay fairly seasonal, though they do
approach 80 towards next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 629 PM CDT Sun May 12 2024

A disturbance moving through south-central NE has contributed to
widely scattered showers and thunderstorms across portions of
eastern NE and southwest IA as of 6 PM. And, latest model data
suggests that the showers and storms could become more numerous
across the area this evening into tonight as that disturbance
continues northeast. As such, the terminal forecasts will
indicate prevailing -SHRA with TEMPO groups for -TSRA for the
next three hours when the atmosphere will be most supportive.
Variably gusty winds are possible in the vicinity of the storms,
especially at KOMA.

Scattered showers are expected to linger through the overnight
hours and Monday morning with MVFR ceilings developing at KOMA,
and IFR conditions at KLNK. Winds are expected to become gusty
from the northeast Monday afternoon with rain chances
decreasing.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...McCoy
AVIATION...Mead