698
FXUS64 KOHX 230732
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
232 AM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 232 AM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024

As of 2 am CDT...skies across Middle Tennessee are mostly clear to
partly cloudy as a band of high clouds moves through. Temperatures
at this hour are primarily in the 40s though a few readings have
dipped into the upper 30s towards the Cumberland Plateau. Winds are
light across the region. At the surface, high pressure extended from
the Gulf Coast, across the Southeastern US, and up the East Coast. A
cold front was located from Wisconsin to Iowa and Nebraska, and it
is this front that will slide southeast and bring us a chance for
precipitation Tuesday night into early Wednesday. Aloft, zonal flow
was located overhead while a shortwave trough was observed over the
northern Plains, moving southeast and forcing the front towards
Middle Tennessee.

For today, the main story will be warmer temperatures, dry
conditions, and gusty winds. Afternoon highs should climb into the
70s areawide. Moisture return is expected later today, as in more
like this evening as moisture along the incoming cold front moves in
from the northwest. This afternoon however, dewpoints should stay in
the 30s and low 40s, which will lead to minimum relative humidity
readings in the mid 20s to mid 30s. Combined with winds gusting to
25, maybe 30 mph, there will be elevated fire weather conditions
across Middle Tennessee.

As the front approaches tonight, a broken band of precipitation
should form and move into the area. While there could be a few
rumbles of thunder with MUCAPE of 100-200 j/kg possible at most,
more than likely all that will be observed is showers. No severe
weather should be anticipated due to the lack of instability. In
addition, the main forcing from the upper level disturbance will be
moving across the Great Lakes, resulting in limited lift and thus
the likelihood of scattered/a broken band of showers occuring versus
a more widespread precipitation event along this front. Winds will
weaken prior to the front arrival, and then remain weak yet shift to
the north once the front has passed. With cloud cover in the region,
low temperatures will remain much warmer than recent nights, only
dropping into the low to mid 50s.

For Wednesday, the only main change compared to Tuesday`s predicted
weather will be a noticeable drop in wind speeds. Temperatures
should be about the same despite the passage of a weak cold front.
Some forecast guidance indicates a few showers into the day, mainly
along the Cumberland Plateau. However, with most of the forcing
having passed through the region already, am not certain we will
observe much in the way of precipitation lingering after the
front.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday Night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 232 AM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024

In the long-term, the pattern looks to be a little more active with
a few chances for precipitation. In addition, temperatures look to
be quite warm with 80s possible/likely across large portions of the
area beginning as soon as Friday.

The first chance for precipitation will come with the arrival of a
warm front Thursday night into Friday night. The warm front should
spread across the region from southwest to northeast. Lift increases
with the front, as well as the left front quadrant of a split jet
overhead. CAPE overall is not too impressive, with the mean values
around to less than 500 j/kg for most guidance. These values are
good enough for storms, but not severe weather potential so for now,
expecting general thunder.

Heading into the weekend, a ridge of high pressure should build over
the southeastern US, with a deepening trough of low pressure to the
west over the Great Plains. The ridge of high pressure should shield
Middle Tennessee from most precipitation/convective activity this
weekend, keeping it more across Kentucky, Illinois, Indiana,
Missouri, and Arkansas. That being said, can`t rule out potential
for a few showers or storms but with this forecast run, that`s
looking less likely. The time to watch for thunderstorms will be
Sunday night into Monday night. This is when a front will finally be
able to approach from the west, and a larger band of precipitation
should be anticipated. With several days of warm weather prior to
this front, you would think the projected CAPE readings would be a
little higher but that`s just not the case once again. Current LREF
probabilities indicate CAPE averaging a max of 500 j/kg Monday
afternoon, which isn`t terribly impressive. Therefore, once again,
it currently seems like we`re looking at thunderstorms but the
threat for severe weather currently looks low unless things change
with the instability forecast. Wind shear parameters do increase
with this system, but the best shear seems to remain west/northwest
of Middle Tennessee.

Outside of the potential rounds of thunderstorms, no hazardous
weather should be anticipated during this long-term period. Enjoy
the Spring warmth.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1230 AM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024

VFR conditions anticipated over the next 24 hours. Primary
aviation concern will be some gusty winds that develop Tuesday
morning, persisting throughout the day across Middle Tennessee and
impacting all TAF sites. For Tuesday evening, a cold front will
approach the region and bring a chance for some precipitation.
However, for now, only mentioned precip at KCKV as most of the
precip should hold off until after 06z. One other thing to
note...a low level jet ahead of the front may produce some LLWS at
KCSV and KSRB late tomorrow evening. Didn`t have the confidence to
put that in the TAF at this time, but something to watch.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      76  57  75  49 /   0  50  10   0
Clarksville    74  54  72  46 /  10  50  10   0
Crossville     70  51  68  44 /   0  40  30   0
Columbia       74  55  75  47 /   0  30  10  10
Cookeville     70  52  70  45 /   0  60  20   0
Jamestown      71  51  68  43 /   0  60  20   0
Lawrenceburg   74  54  74  48 /   0  30  10  10
Murfreesboro   75  54  75  46 /   0  40  20   0
Waverly        74  54  73  49 /   0  40  10  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Husted
LONG TERM....Husted
AVIATION.....Husted