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000
FXUS64 KOHX 181146
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
646 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

.UPDATE...FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

STILL SOME LIGHT RAIN AROUND MIDDLE TENNESSEE AT ISSUANCE ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THIS MORNING`S MCV THAT PUSHED THROUGH THE STATE. IFR
TO MVFR CIGS AND VIS WILL PERSIST THROUGH 14-15Z AT ALL SITES
BEFORE FLIGHT CATEGORIES BEGIN TO IMPROVE BEHIND THIS SYSTEM.
TYPICAL TRAILING STRATUS DECK IS LACKING...SO SKIES CAN BE
EXPECTED TO GO SKC AT ALL SITES BY 18Z. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF
THE NORTH. WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERING...CLEAR SKIES AND
SATURATED GROUNDS...OVERNIGHT FOG DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE AT ALL
TERMINALS TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH SOME IFR POSSIBLE AT KCSV AS EARLY
AS 05Z/19 JUN.

27/UNGER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 525 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013/

UPDATE...

HAVE GONE AHEAD AND CANCELED THE FFA WHICH WAS IN EFFECT FOR OUR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES. WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN HAS ENDED AND LATEST
SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS JUST SCT ACTIVITY FOR THE REST OF
THE DAY.  REST OF FORECAST IS UNCHANGED.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 327 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013/

DISCUSSION...

FAIRLY WELL DEFINED UPPER SYS MOVING ACRS WESTERN PORTION OF THE
CWFA THIS MORNING WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN. WARM RAIN PROCESS ONGOING
WITH IMPRESSIVE RAINFALL RATES IN SOME OF THE HEAVIER BANDS -
RANGING AROUND 0.5 IN/HR AT MANY SPOTS TO A MAX OF 1.3 INCH IN ONE
HOUR EARLIER AT MCEWEN. FORTUNATELY HVY RAINS HAVE NOT PERSISTED
OVER ANY ONE SPOT KEEPING OUR FLOOD RISK LOW. WILL HOLD ONTO THE
FFA FOR NOW FOR THE AREAS WHICH SAW THE HEAVIEST RAINS YDAY BUT
WILL CONSIDER CANCELING BASED ON TRENDS THRU SHIFT CHANGE.
OTHERWISE POPS ARE TRICKY TODAY AS CVRG WILL LIKELY DIMINISH
QUICKLY FROM NW TO SE AS UPPER LOW SHEARS EAST BUT SOME
REDEVELOPMENT STILL PSBL. WILL HANDLE WITH AN ERLY CATEGORICAL
PERIOD TAPERING FROM THE NW AS THE DAY GOES ON. MAV TEMPS LOOK
RSNBL AS WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO WARM UP AS PRECIP CVRG DECREASES AND
SOME SUNSHINE DVLPS.

EXPECT LINGERING PCPN OVER OUR SE TO END TNGT THEN WITH A VERY
MOIST ATMOS/LIGHT WINDS XPCT TO SEE SOME PATCHY FOG. AGAIN THE MAV
TEMPERATURES LOOK RSNBL.

NO SIGNIFICANT CHGS MADE TO THE EXTENDED AS WE ENTER WHAT LOOKS
LIKE A PRETTY TYPICAL SUMMERTIME REGIME. ATMOSPHERE LOOKS TO
MOISTEN ENUF BY THE END OF THE WEEK FOR SOME DIURNAL CONVECTION
AND THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEKEND. LEANED TWRD THE WARMER
MEX TEMPS VS THE COOLER HPC VALUES.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

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