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000
FXUS64 KOHX 160438 AAC
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1138 PM CDT WED MAY 15 2013

.UPDATE...FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&

.AVIATION...06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
INCREASING MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE MID STATE
THRU 17/06Z AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES/MOVES THRU. ENOUGH DIURNAL
BASED INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT NEAR BNA/CKV FROM 16/18Z-17/02Z ALONG
WITH INCREASING MOISTURE/LIFTING MECHANISMS FROM APPROACHING/MOVING THRU
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING FOR SHWRS/TSTMS NEAR TAF SITES. HOWEVER...ACTUAL
DEVELOPMENT LOCATIONS HARD TO PINPOINT AND WILL THUS MENTION VCTS. WILL
ALSO MENTION VCSH FROM 17/02Z-17/06Z PER SAME REASONING ABOVE PER OVERALL
WEAKEN INSTABILITY DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 806 PM CDT WED MAY 15 2013/

UPDATE...
UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER OK THIS EVENING. LARGE SWATH OF
PARTIAL MID/UPPER CLOUDINESS EXTENDS AS FAR EAST AS TN AND GA. AT
THE SFC...A GENERALLY DRY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PREVAILS WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S.

FOR THE FORECAST...SEE NO REASON TO MAKE ANY ADJUSTMENTS. SKY
CONDITION IN ZONE TEXT RANGES FROM PARTLY CLOUDY TO VARIABLE
CLOUDINESS WITH LIGHT WEST WINDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO 60 DEGREE RANGE STILL LOOKS REASONABLE.

PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 654 PM CDT WED MAY 15 2013/

UPDATE...FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

AVIATION...00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
INCREASING MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE MID STATE
THRU 16/24Z AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES. PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD
CONTINUE BE OF ENOUGH STRENGTH TO SUPPORT GUSTS TO 16KT THRU 16/01Z
BEFORE DIURNAL MIXING DIMINISHES...WITH 5 TO 10 KTS CONTINUING TO
BE POSSIBLE AFTERWARDS AND THRU 16/24Z. ENOUGH DIURNAL BASED INSTABILITY
WILL BE PRESENT NEAR BNA/CKV FROM 16/18Z-16/24Z ALONG WITH INCREASING MOISTURE
AND LIFTING MECHANISMS FROM APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING FOR SHWRS/TSTMS
NEAR THESE LOCATIONS. HOWEVER...ACTUAL DEVELOPMENT LOCATIONS HARD TO PINPOINT
AND WILL THUS MENTION VCTS.

PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 255 PM CDT WED MAY 15 2013/

DISCUSSION...
GOOD STRONG BERMUDA 1024 MBAR HIGH RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
US THIS AFTERNOON. BERMUDA HIGH RETREATS ON THURSDAY AS TEXAS
UPPER LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST TOWARD MISSOURI. AS MOISTURE DEEPENS
EXPECT TO SEE SOME CONVECTION AROUND DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY WITH
THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE MID STATE FAVORED. WITH UPPER LOW
OPENING UP THURSDAY NIGHT AND REMAINING OVER THE OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEYS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL KEEP POPS RUNNING FOR
EACH DAY. STILL THINK FRIDAY MIGHT BE THE BETTER CHANCE FOR
ORGANIZED CONVECTION AS SHORT WAVE SWINGS ACROSS THE AREA.

EUROPEAN SHOWING AN OMEGA BLOCK DEVELOPING ACROSS MUCH OF THE US LATE
NEXT WEEK.

AS FOR TEMPS. AM EXPECTING ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS TO CONTINUE WELL
INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$
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