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000
FXUS64 KOHX 170021
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
721 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

.UPDATE...

00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...

RADAR INDICATES SCATTERED -TSRA CONTINUE OVER SOUTHERN MIDDLE
TENNESSEE WITH A FEW -SHRA OVER NORTHERN AREAS. WILL CONTINUE
MENTION OF VCTS FOR THE EVENING HOURS FOR ALL AIRPORTS...BUT LACK
OF -TSRA OVER NORTHERN ZONES NO LONGER WARRANT TEMPO GROUPS AND MAY
PROMPT REMOVAL OF VCTS FROM TAFS AS WELL. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED
TO DISSIPATE ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. WIDESPREAD CIRRUS
AND MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY PREVENT ANY SIGNIFICANT FOG
FORMATION BUT SOME MVFR VIS RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT CKV/CSV
AROUND SUNRISE. SCT CUMULUS TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN MONDAY MORNING
WITH CONVECTION REDEVELOPING DURING THE DAY...WITH MORE VCTS BY
AFTERNOON IF NOT SOONER.

SHAMBURGER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 630 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013/

MESOSCALE UPDATE...
CURRENTLY...SCATTERED CONVECTION SOUTH...MINIMAL ACTIVITY NORTH
BUT BETTER COVERAGE NORTHWARD INTO KY. SEMI ACTIVE PATTERN WITHIN
THE WESTERLIES ALOFT AS MINI DISTURBANCES ARE MOVING EASTWARD
WITHIN THE FLOW. LATEST LAPS DATA SHOWING APPRECIABLE SURFACE BASE
CAPES WITH MAXIMUMS LOCATED ACROSS LEWIS COUNTY...AND ALSO OUR
FAR NW AND THE NORTHERN PLATEAU. THUS...THROUGH THIS EVENING
STRONG STORMS WILL BE AN ONGOING POSSIBILITY. NOT SEEING MUCH
OVERNIGHT DIVERGENCE SO NOT LOOKING FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO
DEVELOP ALTHOUGH MRH LEVELS DO INCREASE SLIGHTLY THROUGH 12Z
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013/

DISCUSSION...
GENERAL TREND FOR THE WEEK AHEAD WILL FEATURE A BUILDING H5 RIDGE
TO OUR WEST WITH OCCASIONAL WEAK SHORT WAVES IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. BEST CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY.
AFTER A WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON TUESDAY...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO
INCREASE TO 85 TO 90 AREA WIDE MID/LATE WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
EDGES CLOSER TO MIDDLE TN.

THIS AFTERNOON/S TEMPS WERE NEAR SATURDAY/S BUT DEW POINTS WERE UP
5 TO 10 DEGREES DUE TO SOUTH FLOW ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND DEPARTED
SFC HIGH PRESSURE. INSTABILITY IS GREATER TODAY BUT STORMS HAVE
BEEN SLOW TO FIRE PARTLY DUE TO EXTENSIVE MID/HIGH CLOUDS
STREAMING IN FROM THE WEST. STILL THINK SOME STORMS WILL DEVELOP
OVER MIDDLE TN NEXT COUPLE HOURS...AND ADDITIONAL STORMS SHOULD
MOVE IN FROM THE WEST WITH THE APPROACHING WEAK SHORT WAVE.

ABOVE AVERAGE CHANCE OF STORMS MONDAY/TUESDAY AS ANOTHER WEAK
SHORT WAVE MOVES INTO THE REGION. BEST CHANCE SHOULD BE LATE
MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY AS WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA AND A WEAK
COLD FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH. NOT A STRONG PUSH BEHIND THIS
FRONT BUT EXPECT/HOPE IT TO MOVE JUST SOUTH OF MIDDLE TN TUESDAY
NIGHT.

NOT MUCH PRECIP EXPECTED WED/THURS AS MOISTURE SHOULD DECREASE
BEHIND THE FRONT. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AGAIN
BY FRIDAY AS SFC HIGH SLIDES TO THE EAST. POTENTIAL FOR STORMS
FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND SHOULD BE LIMITED BY INCREASINGLY
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$