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000
FXUS64 KOHX 191155
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
655 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

.UPDATE...

12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...

TSRA ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY BETWEEN BNA/CSV...BUT EXPECTED TO
IMPACT CSV OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. LAMP GUIDANCE INDICATES LITTLE
CHANCE OF TSRA AT BNA/CKV REST OF THE DAY AND WILL NOT MENTION
PRECIP. QUITE A RANGE OF CIGS/VIS AT AIRPORTS CURRENTLY...BUT
EXPECT TO SEE IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR/VFR THIS MORNING AND VFR
EVERYWHERE BY AFTERNOON. CALM TO LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHWESTERLY 5-10 KTS BY AFTERNOON.

55

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013/

DISCUSSION...

WARM AND MUGGY AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH
SCATTERED SHRA AND A FEW TSRA ONGOING. AREA WILL STILL BE
INFLUENCED BY REMNANT SHORT WAVE JUST TO OUR NORTH TODAY AS DEEPER
RIDGING BUILDS IN THE FROM THE WEST. WILL KEEP INHERITED FCST POPS
GOING...20 PCT WEST INCREASING TO LIKELY ON THE PLATEAU. A
STRONG/SEVERE STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT TODAY WITH MODERATE
INSTABILITY IN PLACE. MAV TEMPS LOOK RSNBL.

DEEP RIDGING THEN BUILDS IN FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WORKWEEK.
MONDAY LOOKS DRY FOR MOST OF THE REGION BUT WILL CARRY A 20 POP ON
THE PLATEAU FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION. WILL CONTINUE LOW POPS ON
TUESDAY WITH INCREASING DIURNAL INSTABILITY. SUMMER LIKE
TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 90 BOTH DAYS AWAY FROM THE PLATEAU.

NEW MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THAT WED/WED NGT
WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR RAIN CHANCES WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM. MID LEVEL
WIND FIELDS LOOK A LITTLE BETTER ON THE 00Z RUNS...AROUND 40 KTS
OR SO...AND THERE IS DECENT SPEED SHEAR. DEPENDING ON THE DEGREE
OF INSTABILITY WE REALIZE THERE COULD BE SOME SEVERE WEATHER AND
WILL MENTION THE POTENTIAL IN THE UPDATED HWO.

HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH THROUGH WHAT LOOKS TO
BE A PRETTY NICE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$