Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
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439 FXUS64 KOHX 021140 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 640 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Friday) Issued at 135 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024 It`s a quiet night across Middle Tennessee with a few high clouds passing through. It will be a warm day across the area as southerly low level flow continues. Clouds will begin to thicken this evening ahead of a dampening shortwave ejecting out of the Arklatex region. A few showers will be possible prior to midnight west of I-65 but the better rain chances will be closer to dawn and into Friday morning. There may be a brief reprieve late Friday morning but another wave will be riding the heels of the first. More showers and storms will be around Friday afternoon and persist into Saturday. MUCAPE values Friday afternoon will be around 1500 J/kg but effective bulk shear will be low at 10-15 kts so no organized severe threat is anticipated. && .LONG TERM... (Friday Night through next Thursday) Issued at 135 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024 Showers and storms will continue Friday night and even into Saturday morning. Behind the shortwave the upper flow continues to be quasi-zonal with more weak disturbances. More scattered showers and storms will be possible Saturday afternoon and evening. Sunday morning may be dry but yet another wave will approach the area Sunday afternoon/evening with more scattered showers and storms. The quasi-zonal flow will continue next week with more waves of showers and storms. MUCAPE values each afternoon will be in the 1000-1500 J/kg range but effective bulk shear will stay on the low side generally between 10-20 kts so no organized severe threats are anticipated. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 635 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024 As high pressure continues to slide off to the east, we can expect one more day of VFR wx before the next active weather system begins to affect Middle Tennessee. Look for mainly light showers to begin developing from west to east after 06Z tonight, with ceilings eventually dropping below 1 kft except along the Cumberland Plateau, which likely won`t see any restrictions until after 12Z tomorrow. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 88 66 79 65 / 0 60 80 70 Clarksville 87 65 76 63 / 0 60 80 50 Crossville 83 62 76 61 / 0 30 70 70 Columbia 87 65 79 63 / 0 70 80 70 Cookeville 84 64 76 62 / 0 40 70 80 Jamestown 85 62 77 61 / 0 20 70 80 Lawrenceburg 85 65 78 63 / 0 60 80 70 Murfreesboro 88 65 79 63 / 0 60 70 70 Waverly 88 64 76 62 / 0 70 80 50 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Reagan LONG TERM....Reagan AVIATION.....Rose