National Weather Service Text Product Display

Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN

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FXUS64 KOHX 122318
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
618 PM CDT SUN MAY 12 2013

.AVIATION 00Z DISCUSSION...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN OVERNIGHT...SKC EXPECTED. A FEW HIGH
CLOUDS WILL RETURN AFT 18Z,

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 PM CDT SUN MAY 12 2013/

DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM FOCUS WAS ON THE PROSPECT OF FROST MONDAY MORNING.
THE GUIDANCE TREND HAS BEEN WARMER OVER THE LAST FEW RUNS...EVEN
ON THE GFS WHICH IS THE COLDEST OUTCOME BY A FEW DEGREES. WHILE
THE GFS MAY BE OVERLAYING THE STRENGTH OF THE SFC HIGH COMPARED TO
THE OTHER MODEL DEPICTIONS...AN IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING SCENARIO
WILL SET UP NONETHELESS. THUS...HAVE DECIDED TO TREND JUST
SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE GFS SOLUTION BY BLENDING THE NAM/EURO WITH A
70/15/15 RATIO. ALSO TOOK THIS BLEND AND APPLIED SOME ELEVATION
CONSIDERATIONS FOR THE PLATEAU WHERE THE COLDEST TEMPS WILL LIKELY
BE SEEN. STILL THINK LOW LYING AREAS MAY SEE LOCALLY LOWER AMOUNTS
BUT HAVE DECENT CONFIDENCE IN THE MIN T GRID FOR TOMORROW MORNING.

BEYOND MONDAY MORNING...A RIDGE BUILDING PATTERN WILL BEGIN IN THE
H5 LEVEL. AT THE SAME TIME...BROAD SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WHICH WILL BEGIN A SLOW MOISTURE
ADVECTION PATTERN THAT WILL RISE DEWPOINT VALUES OVER THE WEEK.
MEANWHILE...A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA
WILL TRAVERSE MEXICO AND TEXAS BEFORE ARRIVING IN MIDDLE TN
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THIS DISTURBANCE COUPLED WITH
THE INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN A CHANCE FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDER FRIDAY. THE SLOW MOVING NATURE OF
THE LOW AND THE LINGERING MOISTURE OVER THE WEEKEND WILL RESULT IN
A CHANCE FOR THUNDER EACH AFTERNOON INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

GUIDANCE IS FINALLY BEGINNING TO INDICATE THE METAMORPHOSIS INTO
SPRING WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE WITH LOWS
IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM CDT MONDAY FOR
TNZ005>011-022>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095.

&&

$$

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