National Weather Service National Headquarters

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

000
FXUS64 KOHX 202024
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
324 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

DISCUSSION...
AFTERNOON CU DEVELOPMENT IS WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE MID STATE THIS
AFTERNOON AS DEWPOINTS HAVE CONTINUED TO RISE. MID LEVEL CAP IS
RATHER STRONG ACCORDING TO THE 12Z SOUNDING FROM THIS MORNING. THE
HIGHER DEWPOINTS HAVE ACTED TO LOWER CONVECTIVE TEMPS BUT CURRENT
TEMPS ARE STRUGGLING TO RISE GIVEN THE EXTRA CLOUD COVER.

FOR TONIGHT`S FORECAST...WILL INCLUDE A 20 POP BUT ONLY FOR THE
NW. THIS IS IN LINE WITH THE HRRR REFLECTIVITY FCST WHICH SHOWS
LITTLE IF ANY DEVELOPMENT. OVERALL...IT JUST APPEARS THAT THERE IS
TOO MUCH VERTICAL DRYNESS IN PLACE.

A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL BE IN THE FCST AGAIN FOR
TUESDAY. MOISTURE LEVELS SHOULD BE HIGHER AND WE DO SEE MORE 18Z CAP
EROSION WITH THE GFS MODEL. THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL BE AIDED
BY AN APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH WILL IMPACT THE AREA LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY. AT THAT TIME...A SLIGHT RISK OF
SEVERE WEATHER IS IN THE FCST FOR OUR NW COUNTIES. BEST OMEGA
FORCING APPEARS TO BE AROUND 06Z WEDNESDAY ACROSS WESTERN TN.
BUT...THERE COULD BE A FEW STRONGER CELLS OVER THAT SAME AREA
EARLIER ON TUES AFTERNOON. STORM MOTION SHOULD RUN FROM SW TO NE.

SHOWERS AND TSTMS TO PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY. ITS IMPORTANT TO NOTE
HOWEVER THAT OVERALL POPS WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE NOT DRASTICALLY HIGH.
IN FACT...MODELS NOT LEANING TOWARD DEEP MOISTURE WITH A WIDESPREAD
AREA OF RAIN OCCURRING. NEVERTHELESS...POPS IN THE 40-60 PERCENT
RANGE WILL BE INCLUDED FOR TUESDAY NT INTO WEDNESDAY. AFTER A FEW
LINGERING SHOWERS ON THURSDAY ACROSS THE PLATEAU...CLEARING WILL
OCCUR WITH DRIER AIR MOVING IN.

FOR THE NEAR TERM TEMPS...WILL AGAIN UNDERCUT THE HIGH TEMPS FOR
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS FROM THE GUIDANCE APPEARS
REASONABLE.

IN THE EXT FCST...NICE LATE MAY CONDITIONS ARE ON TAP FOLLOWING THE
FROPA WHICH WAS MENTIONED IN THE SHORT TERM TIME FRAME.
THUS...SUNSHINE TO RETURN IN EARNEST FOR FRIDAY AND INTO THE
WEEKEND. THERMAL TROUGHING WILL BE SLOW TO GIVE WAY AND
THUS...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AND LOWER
HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL PREVAIL THU THROUGH SAT. SUNDAY AND MONDAY...UPPER
RIDGING AND HEIGHT RISES WILL BE ON TAP. THIS WILL EQUATE TO HIGH
TEMPS BACK UP INTO THE 80S. BUT...STILL NOT SEEING ANY APPRECIABLE
PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH MONDAY.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      68  89  67  82 /  05  20  50  70
CLARKSVILLE    68  87  65  82 /  10  30  60  50
CROSSVILLE     64  85  65  77 /  10  30  40  70
COLUMBIA       68  89  67  82 /  05  20  40  60
LAWRENCEBURG   66  88  67  82 /  05  20  40  60
WAVERLY        68  87  66  82 /  10  30  60  50

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

21