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000
FXUS64 KOHX 140159
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
859 PM CDT THU JUN 13 2013

.UPDATE...
LINE OF CONVECTION HAS PUSHED WELL SOUTH OF THE MID STATE WITH
ONLY SCATTERED MID-LEVEL CLOUDS LEFT ALONG THE UPPER CUMBERLAND.
STRONG UPPER RIDGE THIS EVENING EXTENDING UP THROUGH THE PLAINS
FROM TEXAS TO CANADA WITH MID STATE REMAINING IN DRY NORTHWEST
FLOW ON FRIDAY.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE ABOUT 18 DEGREES COOLER THAN LAST NIGHTS
EXCEPT ALONG THE PLATEAU WHERE THEY WILL BE 8 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER.
HIGHS ON FRIDAY IN THE LOW TO MID 80S WITH MID AND UPPER 70S ALONG
THE PLATEAU. DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER
50S AND WHICH IS MUCH MORE CONFORTABLE THAN RECENT DAYS.

.CLIMATE...RECORD FOR THE WARMEST MINIMUM TEMPERATURE FOR THIS
DATE SET THIS MORNING.

THE LOW THIS MORNING IN NASHVILLE WAS A WARM 80 DEGREES BREAKING
THE RECORD FOR THE WARMEST MINIMUM TEMPERATURE FOR THIS DATE LAST
SET IN 2010 AND ALSO BACK IN 1952. THE WARMEST MINIMUM TEMPERATURE
EVER RECORDED IN NASHVILLE IS 85 DEGREES SET ON JULY 14TH 1954.
THIS WAS THE SECOND MORNING IN A ROW WITH RECORDS SET FOR THE
WARMEST MINIMUM TEMPERATURE. RECORDS OF THIS TYPE ARE NOT OFTEN
SET...BUT SO FAR THIS YEAR WE HAVE BROKEN THREE. LAST YEAR FOUR
DAYS OF THE HIGHEST DAILY MINIMUM TEMPRATURE RECORDS WERE
ESTABLISHED. BACK IN 2007 WE BROKE FIVE AND TIED FOUR.

BOYD



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 714 PM CDT THU JUN 13 2013/

UPDATE...FOR 00Z AVIATION FORECASTS

AVIATION...
LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVED SOUTHWARD AND EXITED MIDDLE TN LATE
THIS AFTERNOON SO THIS SET OF TAFS WILL BE DRY. POST FRONTAL
AIRMASS WILL LEAD TO AREAS OF BKN030 TO BKN050 FOR THE FIRST HALF
OF TONIGHT WITH SKIES BECOMING CLEAR THEREAFTER. SLIGHTLY GUSTY
NORTH WINDS AT 00Z WILL WEAKEN SOMEWHAT THIS EVENING...THEN LIGHT
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THE REST OF THE NIGHT AS WELL AS ON
FRIDAY AS SFC RIDGE MOVES SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 304 PM CDT THU JUN 13 2013/

DISCUSSION...
FORECAST REASONING WILL LEAN TOWARD A CONSENSUS MODEL SOLUTION
COMPROMISE FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED.

FORECAST QUANDARIES...WHEN WILL SHWRS/TSTMS END ACROSS THE MID STATE
THIS AFTERNOON...TEMPS

WILL BE MONITORING THE PROGRESSION SEWD OF CURRENT SHWRS/TSTMS ACROSS
SRN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA...BUT DO EXPECT MOST OF THE CONVECTION TO
BE S OF THE MID STATE BY PRESS TIME...AND WILL THUS BE CLRING COUNTIES
ASSOCIATED WITH SVR TSTM WATCH NUMBER 307 APPROPRIATELY N TO S AS PRESS
TIME APPROACHES. EXPECT DIFFUSE WEAK SFC FRONT TO BE S OF THE MID STATE
BY THE EVENING HRS...WITH RIDGING INFLUENCES SFC/ALOFT PROVIDING FOR
DRY CONDITIONS THRU SUN MORNING. UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME
MORE ZONAL ALOFT ON SUN AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DYNAMICS MOVE
EWD/WEAKEN...AND THIS WILL RESULT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHWRS/TSTMS
ACROSS THE MID STATE BY SUN AFTERNOON. EXPECTING A MORE TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME PATTERN TO BECOME ESTABLISHED THRU THE FIRST PART OF NEXT
WEEK UNTIL ANOTHER SFC FRONTAL PASSAGE IS EXPECTED DURING THE TUE
AFTERNOON THRU WED MORNING TIME FRAME...AND THIS WILL USHER IN AGAIN
DRIER AIR TO THE MID STATE. AS FOR TEMPS...WILL GO CLOSE TO A
EURO/GFS/NAM COMPROMISE ON LOWS/HIGHS THRU THE ENTIRE FORECAST
PERIOD WHERE APPROPRIATE WITH A LEAN TOWARD THE EURO SOLUTION
SPECIFICALLY ON SAT WITH THE DRIER AIR WORKING INTO THE MID STATE.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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