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000
FXUS64 KOHX 172343 AAA
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
643 PM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013

.UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE SUITE OF FORECAST PRODUCTS TO REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS
AND CONSENSUS SHORT RANGE MODEL TRENDS OF SHOWING THAT THE MAIN SWATH OF
SHWRS MOVING INTO ERN PORTIONS OF THE MID STATE...AND THIS TREND SHOULD
CONTINUE THRU THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT. ALSO...LOOKS LIKE ANY TSTM ACTIVITY
SHOULD BE LIMITED TO LOCATIONS GENERALLY JUST WEST OF AND ACROSS THE PLATEAU
REGION THRU TONIGHT TOO. IN AREAS WHERE SHWRS AND ISO TSTMS ARE NOT OCCURRING...
BELIEVE PATCHY FOG WILL DEVELOP BY THE MID EVENING HRS AND PERSIST OVERNIGHT...
AND HAVE THUS MENTIONED. SKY CONDITION TRENDS AND CURRENT FORECASTED LOWS
GENERALLY IN LINE AND DID NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES.
&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 PM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013/

SHORT TERM...AT MID AFTERNOON NUMEROUS SHOWERS WERE OCCURRING
OVER MOST OF THE MID STATE, ALONG WITH A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
AS UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TRAVERSES THE AREA OVERNIGHT, EXPECT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME INCREASINGLY CONFINED TO
EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE MID STATE. LOWEST POPS WILL BE
OVER OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS WITH US OVER THE WEEKEND, ALTHOUGH MID
LEVELS INCREASINGLY DRY OUT (ESPECIALLY OVER OUR WESTERN AREAS).
ALONG WITH WARM AFTERNOON TEMPS IN THE 80S, EXPECT THIS TYPE OF
VERTICAL MOISTURE AND TEMP PROFILE TO LEAD TO A RATHER UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE OVER THE WEEKEND, ESPECIALLY DURING THE WARMEST AFTERNOON
HOURS. THUS, BELIEVE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH
DAY (ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN AREAS). WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED TO SEE A
FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY LOOK LIKE RATHER HOT DAYS, AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE AREA AND MOVES EASTWARD. BELIEVE GFS MAV IS
PROBABLY A BIT TOO AGGRESSIVE ON MAX TEMPS AND HAVE TRIMMED A FEW
DEGS OFF MAV PROJECTIONS EACH DAY. ON THE OTHER HAND, MODELS SEEM
TO HAVE A PRETTY GOOD HANDLE ON LOWS OVER THE UPCOMING DAYS, WITH
LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S.

LONG TERM...THERE ARE SOME DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN THE MODELS AS
WE HEAD INTO THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF THE WEEK, ESPECIALLY
REGARDING TIMING OF OUR NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM AND THE SPEED WITH
WHICH TROUGHING IS ABLE TO DEVELOP OVER THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE
VALLEYS. HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A MODEL BLEND, WITH FRONTAL SYSTEM
(MAINLY A MID-TO-UPPER LEVEL FEATURE) MOVING OVER OUR AREA LATE
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS A RESULT, BACKED OFF A BIT ON
THE POPS FOR ABOUT THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF OUR FA DURING THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS ON WED, AND OPTED FOR A RATHER WARM DAY OVER THOSE
AREAS (PER GFS). HAVE ALSO KEEP SURFACE FLOW S-SWLY THROUGH
FRIDAY, AND DELAYING DIGGING OF OHIO RIVER VALLEY TROUGH UNTIL
NEXT WEEKEND.
&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$
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