Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
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355 FXUS64 KOHX 021635 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 1135 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Friday) Issued at 1121 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024 Dry and relatively quiet day so far across the mid state, with temperatures already in the 80s for many locations. Highs are still expected to get to the mid to upper 80s, with even a reading hitting 90 possible this afternoon thanks to the upper ridge thats currently moving eastward. An approaching shortwave trough from the southwest will bring showers and thunderstorms to the area likely after midnight and through the day Friday. The trough does weaken as it moves over the mid state, and another weak shortwave follows behind for Friday evening/overnight. Despite a weak cold front moving through Friday, severe storm chances are low, which is due to the deep layer shear remaining weak due to the shortwaves also being on the weak side. Instability will still be in place, so cant rule out some heavy downpours and even some isolated gusty winds, but lightning will be the focus for any outdoor events tomorrow and into the weekend. && .LONG TERM... (Friday Night through next Thursday) Issued at 1121 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024 Saturday will see continued chances for showers and storms, especially in the south and east as the weak shortwave trough moves northeastward. A break in the showers and storms looks possible Saturday night into the morning Sunday with mainly isolated chances for rain, but yet another trough and diurnal support brings showers and thunderstorms back into the forecast Sunday afternoon. A stronger upper trough will be just off to our west, but still deep layer shear will remain weak, so the severe storm threat remains low at this time. Temperatures will remain warm next week as southwest flow aloft stays in place, but that also keeps the active pattern going with any disturbance aloft allowing for showers and storms to develop. Current forecast has rain chances in each day next week, mainly during the afternoon and evening when diurnal support is best. Rainfall amounts tonight through Thursday next week look to be around 1 to 2 inches for most of the area, but obviously any stronger convection would bring the potential for locally higher amounts of rain. Models are not on board with any severe risk next week either as of current runs this morning, so it looks to be mainly afternoon showers and storms bringing some needed rainfall, but stay tuned. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 635 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024 As high pressure continues to slide off to the east, we can expect one more day of VFR wx before the next active weather system begins to affect Middle Tennessee. Look for mainly light showers to begin developing from west to east after 06Z tonight, with ceilings eventually dropping below 1 kft except along the Cumberland Plateau, which likely won`t see any restrictions until after 12Z tomorrow. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 88 67 79 65 / 0 60 80 80 Clarksville 87 65 77 63 / 0 80 80 40 Crossville 83 62 76 61 / 0 30 80 90 Columbia 87 65 79 64 / 0 60 80 80 Cookeville 84 65 76 63 / 0 40 90 90 Jamestown 85 62 77 61 / 0 30 90 90 Lawrenceburg 85 65 77 63 / 0 70 80 80 Murfreesboro 88 66 79 64 / 0 50 80 80 Waverly 86 65 78 63 / 0 70 80 70 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Barnwell LONG TERM....Barnwell AVIATION.....Rose