000
FXUS64 KOHX 231127 AAA
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
627 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

.UPDATE...FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&

.AVIATION...12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
UNCERTAINTIES...ACTUAL SCT/BKN VFR CONDITIONS THRU 24/12Z AND IMPACTS
OF ISO/SCT SHWRS/TSTMS AT TAF SITES. MAIN SWATH OF VFR STRATOCU EXPECTED
W TO E 23/16Z-24/06Z PER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSAGE...BUT LINGERING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PLATEAU COULD PERSIST THRU 24/12Z ALONG WITH MVFR FOG...
LIKE MVFR FOG IS PERSISTING AS 23/12Z APPROACHES. OVERALL BELIEVE THAT
SHWRS/TSTMS WILL BE ISO IN NATURE AND THUS HARD TO PINPOINT LOCATION DEVELOPMENT
AND IMPACTS ON PARTICULAR TAF SITES...BUT BEST POSSIBILITY LOOKS TO BE CSV PER
ORAGRAPHIC INFLUENCES...AND THUS MENTION VCTS CSV 23/17Z-24/00Z.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 229 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013/

DISCUSSION...
WEAK SURFACE COOL FRONT OFF TO OUR NORTHWEST ALONG THE OHIO RIVER
PROGGED TO MOVE DOWN INTO THE MID STATE DURING THE DAY AND INTO
NORTHERN ALABAMA THIS EVENING. WILL HAVE TO KEEP A SMALL POP GOING FOR
THE MID STATE TODAY DUE TO FRONTAL SYSTEM WITH BEST CHANCE OVER
NORTHEAST HALF. FRONT GETS SOUTH OF MY CWA TONIGHT WITH A MODIFIED
CONTINENTAL POLAR AIR MASS SINKING DOWN INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
WILL DRIVE TEMPS DOWN INTO THE UPPER 40S IN THE NORTHWEST TO THE
LOWER 50S ELSEWHERE. TONIGHTS LOWS WILL BE THE COOLEST SINCE
MAY 14TH WHEN WE HAD 47 AT NASHVILLE...39 AT CROSSVILLE AND 49 AT
CLARKSVILLE. LOWS THIS PAST WEEK HAVE BEEN MOSTLY IN THE 60S AT
MANY LOCATIONS IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE. ON FRIDAY LOOK FOR PLEASANT
WEATHER WITH HIGHS AROUND 70 MOST LOCATIONS EXCEPT MID AND UPPER
60S ALONG UPPER CUMBERLAND AND SOME EASTERN AREAS. FRIDAY NIGHT
LOWS WILL BE IN THE 40S AT ALL LOCATIONS.

UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL BE DEVELOPING INTO AN OMEGA BLOCK WITH UPPER
RIDGE RUNNING NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH CENTRAL US AS WE GO THROUGH
THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. TEMPS WARM UP EACH DAY OVER THE WEEKEND
AND INTO NEXT WEEK. UPPER RIDGE GRADUALLY TRANSLATE EASTWARD BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH STRONG BERMUDA RIDGE BUILDING OVER
SOUTHEASTERN US AT THE SURFACE. OTHER THAN A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHEASTERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE ON MEMORIAL DAY I
KEPT THE FORECAST DRY AFTER TODAY THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
CERTAINLY CANT RULE AIR MASS TYPE STUFF DEVELOPING MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK BUT NO TRIGGER OTHER THAN HEATING CAN BE FOUND.

BOYD

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$
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