000
FXUS64 KOHX 200442
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1142 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

.UPDATE...

&&

AVIATION...
06Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES WILL GIVE WAY TO SOME AREAS
OF FOG OVERNIGHT...TEMPO MVFR AT BNA AND CKV...BUT PROBABLY DOWN
TO LIFR AT CSV WHERE HEAVY RAIN FELL YESTERDAY. ALL SITES WILL
IMPROVE TO VFR BY 15Z. A STRONG RIDGE ALOFT MONDAY WILL MEAN FEW
IF ANY TSRA...JUST WARM WITH SCT CUMULUS CLOUDS AND S WINDS AROUND
10KT.

13


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 711 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013/

UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE SUITE OF FORECAST PRODUCTS TO REMOVE THE THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON GROUPING AND...PER DRIER AIR MOVING NOW ACROSS THE MID STATE
W TO E...ANY SHWRS OR TSTMS THAT MIGHT FORM THRU THE EARLY EVENING HRS
WOULD BE ISO AT VERY BEST...AND THUS HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF SHWRS/TSTMS
ACROSS THE ENTIRE MID STATE FOR THIS EVENING. IN AREAS THAT EXPERIENCED
THE RAINFALL TODAY...ESPECIALLY LOCATIONS ALONG THE I-24 CORRIDOR AND THE
PLATEAU...BELIEVE BY MID EVENING THAT PATCHY FOG COULD BEGIN TO DEVELOP...
WITH THESE LOCATIONS EXPERIENCING AREAS OF FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT THRU THE
MID MORNING HRS ON MON. WOULD ALSO NOT BE SURPRISED IF SOME OF THIS IS
LOCALLY DENSE. WILL BE UPDATING THE HWO PRODUCT SHORTLY TO REMOVE TODAY
WORDING...BUT WILL MENTION POSSIBILITY OF LOCALLY DENSE FOG HERE TOO. DO
EXPECT MOST LOCATIONS TO BE PTCLDY BY DAYBREAK. CURRENT TEMPS GENERALLY IN
LINE WITH FORECASTED LOWS AND WILL THUS NO CHANGES WERE MADE.



PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 455 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013/

UPDATE...
UPDATED SUITE OF FORECAST PRODUCTS TO REFLECT CURRENT SHWRS/TSTMS WITH
HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL JUST E OF I-24 THRU LATE AFTERNOON HRS.

PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 155 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013/

DISCUSSION...CONVECTION EAST OF I-65 REALLY STARTING TO BACK-
BUILD THE LAST FEW VOLUME SCANS, AND MAY BEGIN TO AFFECT THE
NASHVILLE METRO AREA IF THE CURRENT TREND CONTINUES MUCH LONGER.
THE 18Z LAPS SOUNDING FOR BNA SHOWS CONTINUED DESTABILIZATION,
WITH A LIFTED INDEX OF -11.6 AND CAPE OF 4012 J/KG. HOWEVER, THE
WARMEST TEMPERATURES ARE BEING OBSERVED IN AREAS FARTHER WEST
WHERE PARTIAL CLEARING HAS ALLOWED FOR DIRECT SUN. BUT DRIER AIR
PENETRATING FROM THE WEST HAS ALSO GREATLY REDUCED THE CHANCE FOR
CONVECTION IN THESE AREAS. LOOK FOR THE DRIER AIR TO CONTINUE
WORKING ITS WAY EASTWARD SO THAT ALL OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE SHOULD BE
RAIN-FREE LATER TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES TOMORROW AND TUESDAY WILL
APPROACH 90 DEGREES IN SOME AREAS, JUST IN TIME FOR THE NEXT
ACTIVE WEATHER SYSTEM TO BRING MORE PRECIPITATION AND SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURE. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
BRINGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH MIDDLE TENNESSEE ON WEDNESDAY, WITH
A SECOND E-W ORIENTED FRONT DROPPING INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE
THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY MORNING. SPC IS KEEPING ITS SEVERE
WEATHER RISK AREAS WEST OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE THROUGH DAY 3, WITH
NOTHING SHOWING UP IN THEIR EXTENDED OUTLOOK, EITHER.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$