000
FXUS64 KOHX 151500
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1000 AM CDT WED MAY 15 2013

.DISCUSSION...
STRONG BERMUDA RIDGE DOWN ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN US KEEPING WARM
TEMPS AND SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. UPPER LOW DOWN IN
TEXAS WILL BEGIN SPREADING CIRRUS THIS WAY BECOMING SCATTERED
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND BROKEN THIS EVENING. BELIEVE WE HAVE A
GOOD FORECAST ON-GOING SO NO CHANGES PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

BOYD

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 421 AM CDT WED MAY 15 2013/

UPDATE...FOR 12Z TAFS.

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE NEXT 24HRS AS THE MID-SOUTH REMAINS
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SFC HIGH/UPPER RIDGES. WINDS WILL AGAIN
GUST IN THE 15-25MPH RANGE LATE THIS MORNING/AFTERNOON...BUT
WEAKEN TO BELOW 10MPH AFTER SUNSET.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 AM CDT WED MAY 15 2013/

DISCUSSION...EARLY THIS MORNING SKIES WERE CLEAR OVER MID TN WITH
MILD TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BACK TO THE GULF COAST WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST. THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE BRINGING
ANOTHER SUNNY AND WARM DAY. I THINK THE LATEST GUIDANCE MAX TEMPS
ARE A LITTLE TOO LOW. HIGHS SHOULD BE THE SAME OR A COUPLE OF
DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY.

AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SEND SOME INCREASING MOISTURE
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...BUT NOT EXPECTING RAIN TO DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL BE MILD AGAIN...MOSTLY IN THE 60S.

FOR THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...INCREASED MOISTURE ALONG WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW CROSSING THE REGION WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MODEL POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASING...BUT
STILL KEEPING OUR POPS IN THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE WITH THE MAIN
FOCUS FOR ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED WELL TO THE NORTH OF
MID TN. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO MILD WITH LOWS MOSTLY LOWER
60S AND HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 80S.

INTO THE WEEKEND...WARM WX WILL CONTINUE. MODELS...ESPECIALLY
GFS...SUGGEST POSSIBLE MCS DEVELOPMENT FRIDAY NIGHT OVER MO/IA
WITH THE CONVECTION COMING DOWN INTO MID TN SATURDAY MORNING. NOT
SURE THIS WILL HAPPEN...SO STICKING WITH 20-30 POPS FOR NOW RATHER
THAN THE LIKELY POPS INDICATED BY GUIDANCE. EVEN IF SATURDAY
MORNING BRINGS SOME RAIN...THE REST OF THE WEEKEND SHOULD BRING ONLY
ISOLATED ACTIVITY WITH THE UPPER RIDGE EXPECTED TO BUILD UP AGAIN.

THE WARM PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY WITH SMALL CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. POPS WILL INCREASE TOWARD MIDWEEK AS A TROUGH
APPROACHES.

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE STRONG IN THE WARM AND INCREASINGLY
UNSTABLE AIR OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...BUT SEVERE WX IS NOT
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      87  62  82  61 /   0   0  30  20
CLARKSVILLE    86  62  81  59 /   0  05  30  20
CROSSVILLE     83  56  77  56 /   0  05  20  20
COLUMBIA       87  61  83  61 /   0   0  30  20
LAWRENCEBURG   87  60  83  61 /   0   0  30  20
WAVERLY        86  62  82  60 /   0  05  30  20

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

01