000
FXUS64 KOHX 162330
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
630 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
CURRENTLY...SCATTERED CONVECTION SOUTH...MINIMAL ACTIVITY NORTH
BUT BETTER COVERAGE NORTHWARD INTO KY. SEMI ACTIVE PATTERN WITHIN
THE WESTERLIES ALOFT AS MINI DISTURBANCES ARE MOVING EASTWARD
WITHIN THE FLOW. LATEST LAPS DATA SHOWING APPRECIABLE SURFACE BASE
CAPES WITH MAXIMUMS LOCATED ACROSS LEWIS COUNTY...AND ALSO OUR
FAR NW AND THE NORTHERN PLATEAU. THUS...THROUGH THIS EVENING
STRONG STORMS WILL BE AN ONGOING POSSIBILITY. NOT SEEING MUCH
OVERNIGHT DIVERGENCE SO NOT LOOKING FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO
DEVELOP ALTHOUGH MRH LEVELS DO INCREASE SLIGHTLY THROUGH 12Z
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013/

DISCUSSION...
GENERAL TREND FOR THE WEEK AHEAD WILL FEATURE A BUILDING H5 RIDGE
TO OUR WEST WITH OCCASIONAL WEAK SHORT WAVES IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. BEST CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY.
AFTER A WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON TUESDAY...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO
INCREASE TO 85 TO 90 AREA WIDE MID/LATE WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
EDGES CLOSER TO MIDDLE TN.

THIS AFTERNOON/S TEMPS WERE NEAR SATURDAY/S BUT DEW POINTS WERE UP
5 TO 10 DEGREES DUE TO SOUTH FLOW ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND DEPARTED
SFC HIGH PRESSURE. INSTABILITY IS GREATER TODAY BUT STORMS HAVE
BEEN SLOW TO FIRE PARTLY DUE TO EXTENSIVE MID/HIGH CLOUDS
STREAMING IN FROM THE WEST. STILL THINK SOME STORMS WILL DEVELOP
OVER MIDDLE TN NEXT COUPLE HOURS...AND ADDITIONAL STORMS SHOULD
MOVE IN FROM THE WEST WITH THE APPROACHING WEAK SHORT WAVE.

ABOVE AVERAGE CHANCE OF STORMS MONDAY/TUESDAY AS ANOTHER WEAK
SHORT WAVE MOVES INTO THE REGION. BEST CHANCE SHOULD BE LATE
MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY AS WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA AND A WEAK
COLD FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH. NOT A STRONG PUSH BEHIND THIS
FRONT BUT EXPECT/HOPE IT TO MOVE JUST SOUTH OF MIDDLE TN TUESDAY
NIGHT.

NOT MUCH PRECIP EXPECTED WED/THURS AS MOISTURE SHOULD DECREASE
BEHIND THE FRONT. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AGAIN
BY FRIDAY AS SFC HIGH SLIDES TO THE EAST. POTENTIAL FOR STORMS
FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND SHOULD BE LIMITED BY INCREASINGLY
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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