000
FXUS64 KOHX 131951
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
251 PM CDT MON MAY 13 2013

.DISCUSSION...

AFTER A RECORD BREAKING COLD START...A BEAUTIFUL AND MILD DAY HAS
BEEN BESTOWED UPON MIDDLE TENNESSEE WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S
TO NEAR 70...LOW HUMIDITY WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 30S...AND ALMOST
COMPLETELY CLEAR SKIES EXCEPT FOR A BIT OF CUMULUS HERE AND THERE.
ALTHOUGH ONE IN THE WEATHER BUSINESS SHOULD NEVER SAY NEVER...THE
UNUSUALLY COLD SPRING APPEARS TO FINALLY BE AT AN END AS THE UPPER
PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS SHIFTS TO A MORE TYPICAL SPRING SETUP
WITH TROUGHING IN THE WEST AND RIDGING IN THE EAST. THIS WILL LEAD
TO A SIGNIFICANT WARMUP FOR THE MID STATE WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THE REST OF THE WEEK AND A GRADUAL INCREASE
IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE GULF. ONE MORE BELOW NORMAL NIGHT
IS ANTICIPATED TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S...BUT THESE
TEMPS WILL BE SOME 10 TO 15 DEGREES WARMER THAN SEEN THIS MORNING
DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING OFF TO THE EAST AND WESTERLY 850MB
FLOW INCREASING TO AROUND 25 KNOTS. MODELS ALSO SUGGEST SOME CLOUD
COVER CURRENTLY OVER IOWA/WISCONSIN WILL MOVE THROUGH
OVERNIGHT...WHICH COULD KEEP TEMPS UP A TAD.

CONTINUED STRENGTHENING OF WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL LEAD TO GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS AND A SUBSEQUENT BIG WARMUP ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM MID 70S ON THE PLATEAU TO LOW TO MID 80S
ELSEWHERE...SOME 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THIS WARMTH WILL
CONTINUE THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
70S TO MID 80S AND LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S. CLOUD COVER
WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS A WEAK UPPER LOW
MOVES ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND A COLD FRONT SINKS SOUTHWARD
TO NEAR THE OHIO RIVER...AND WITH PWATS RISING OVER 1 INCH SOME
LOW POPS APPEAR WARRANTED ON THURSDAY WITH BEST RAIN CHANCES NEAR
THE KY BORDER. A CONTINUED LOW CHANCE FOR MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SEEN THE REST OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS PWATS HOVER IN THE 1.25-1.5 INCH RANGE AND
REGION REMAINS IN WEAK ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. BETTER RAIN CHANCES MAY
WORK INTO THE MID STATE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A DEEP NEGATIVELY
TILTED TROUGH SHIFTS FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE EASTERN CONUS.
HOWEVER...12Z ECMWF IS MUCH SLOWER WITH THIS TROUGH THAN THE 12Z
GFS WHICH LEADS TO LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THE LONG RANGE. FOR NOW
HAVE GONE GENERALLY WITH A PERSISTENCE FORECAST FOR THE BEGINNING
OF NEXT WEEK WITH CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND LOW POPS EACH
DAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      48  84  60  85 /   0   0   0   0
CLARKSVILLE    48  83  59  84 /   0   0   0   0
CROSSVILLE     40  76  56  79 /   0   0   0   0
COLUMBIA       49  84  59  85 /   0   0   0   0
LAWRENCEBURG   48  84  58  85 /   0   0   0   0
WAVERLY        49  84  59  83 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHAMBURGER