000
FXUS64 KOHX 161140
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
640 AM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

.UPDATE...FOR 12Z AVIATION FORECAST

&&

.AVIATION...
BERMUDA HIGH WILL BEGIN RETREATING DURING THE DAY AS AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES THIS WAY. THE DISTURBANCE COUPLED WITH
AFTERNOON HEATING WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MID
STATE THIS AFTERNOON BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS ON MONDAY. OUTSIDE OF
THUNDERSTORMS AM EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD.


BOYD
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013/

DISCUSSION...

ONE STEP OUTSIDE THIS MORNING AND YOU WILL INSTANTLY REALIZE THAT
MOISTURE IS ON THE RETURN.  DEW POINTS ARE RUNNING 4 TO 6 DEGREES
HIGHER AT ISSUANCE TONIGHT THAN LAST NIGHT.  THIS INCREASE IN
MOISTURE WILL BE THE TREND OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAY AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF TO OUR EAST...PUTTING MIDDLE TENNESSEE IN A
SOLID RETURN FLOW.  THAT BEING SAID...HAVE BACKED OFF FORECAST DEW
POINTS FOR THIS AFTERNOON.  WAS RUNNING UP NEAR 70 AND THEY WILL
LIKELY BE MORE IN THE 64-67 DEGREE RANGE BY MID AFTERNOON.  EITHER
WAY...THIS INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...COUPLED WITH THE UPPER
RIDGE BEGINNING TO BREAK DOWN THIS MORNING WILL SPELL AN INCREASE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.  NOT EXPECTING
ANYTHING TOO WIDESPREAD...BUT WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS DISPLAYING A
CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE LAYER FROM 600-700MB...ANY AMOUNT OF
ENERGY THAT TRAVERSES THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON COULD SPARK A FEW
STRONG AND EVEN ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS. WITHOUT EXTREMELY MODEST
SHEAR VALUES THOUGH...NO REAL ORGANIZATION IS EXPECTED. STORMS
WILL LIKELY BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND CARRY A DAMAGING WIND
THREAT...AS WELL AS A POSSIBILITY OF HAIL.

UNFORTUNATELY...THIS AFTERNOON IS ONLY THE BEGINNING OF RAIN CHANCES
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  THE WEAK AND DIFFUSE FRONTAL SYSTEM I HAVE
BEEN TALKING ABOUT THE LAST COUPLE OF MORNINGS STILL LOOKS TO AFFECT
THE ENTIRE STATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY.  COVERAGE WILL ONLY INCREASE
EACH PERIOD AS THE FRONT NEARS MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND MULTIPLE
SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH THE REGION.  HAVE CONTINUED THE TREND OF
BUMPING POPS STARTING TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...AND THEN
TAPERING THEM OFF FROM NORTH TO SOUTH STARTING TUESDAY.  NOW...THAT
IS THE OPTIMISM IN ME COMING OUT.  THE LATEST EURO STILL WANTS TO
HANG THE FRONT UP NEAR/JUST SOUTH OF THE STATE.  IF THIS SOLUTION
PERSISTS...THERE MAY BE THE NEED TO ADD IN SOME POPS FOR OUR FAR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

IN REGARDS TO SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...I AM
GOING TO PERSIST IN HOLDING OFF THE MENTION ANYTHING IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.  EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER SHOULD TAMPER
EXCESSIVE CAPE VALUES...AND WITHOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT SHEAR TO SPEAK
OF...SEVERE CONVECTION SHOULD BE HELD AT BAY.  WHAT I WILL ADD
IN...ESPECIALLY FOR MONDAY NIGHT...WILL BE A MODERATE CONCERN OF
HEAVY RAINFALL.  WITH THE QUASI-STATIONARY NATURE OF THIS
FRONT...AND WHAT LOOKS TO BE A FAIRLY ACTIVE PATTERN OVER TOP OF
IT...QPF VALUES HAVE BEEN INCREASED DRAMATICALLY WITH THIS PACKAGE.
ON AVERAGE I THINK BASINS SHOULD SEE 1-3 INCHES MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING.  FOR THE MOST PART...MIDDLE TENNESSEE SHOULD FAIR
WELL WITH THAT AMOUNT OF RAIN...BUT ANYTHING IN EXCESS OF THAT IN
THIS 24-36 HOUR PERIOD COULD SPELL A RISK OF LOCALIZED FLOODING.
PROBABLY NOT ESF WORTHY AT THIS POINT...BUT IT`S SOMETHING I WANT TO
MAKE FOLKS AWARE OF NOW.

BARRING THIS FRONT HANGING UP ANY LONGER THAN WEDNESDAY MORNING...WE
LOOK TO STARTING DRYING OUT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND SHY OF SOME 15 POP
CHANCE OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS AT THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD...IT SHOULD REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.  THE
DOWN SIDE...TEMPERATURES AND RH VALUES ARE GOING TO REMAIN
ELEVATED...RUNNING AOA NORMALS FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.

27/UNGER

AVIATION...06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR. SCT-BKN CIRRUS CONTINUES SPREADING OVER THE MID STATE FROM
CONVECTION TO THE NORTHWEST...WITH CIRRUS ANTICIPATED THROUGHOUT
THE TAF PERIOD. BL WINDS STRENGTHENING TO 10-20 KTS TONIGHT
EXPECTED TO PREVENT FOG FORMATION AT TERMINALS. INCREASING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE ON SUNDAY WILL RESULT IN SCT CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT
DURING THE MORNING/AFTERNOON...WITH SCT DIURNAL -TSRA FORMING BY
LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF VCTS AT
ALL AIRPORTS FROM 16/20-21Z THROUGH 17/02-03Z. LIGHT SOUTH WINDS
TONIGHT WILL VEER TO SOUTHWEST BUT REMAIN 5-10 KTS ON SUNDAY.

SHAMBURGER

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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