000
FXUS64 KOHX 150041
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
741 PM CDT FRI JUN 14 2013

.UPDATE...
MINOR UPDATE TONIGHT AS SOME HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDINESS HAS
DRIFTED SOUTHEAST...COMPLIMENTS OF THE ONGOING MCS ACROSS IO AND
NRN MO. NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED...AS OVERALL...ITS A CALM AND
QUIET EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 626 PM CDT FRI JUN 14 2013/

UPDATE...

00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

AVIATION...

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CIRRUS SPREADING ACROSS THE MID STATE FROM
CONVECTION ACROSS IA/MO/IL...AND EXPECTING SCT-BKN CIRRUS
THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. VERY DRY ATMOSPHERE WILL LIMIT FOG
FORMATION OVERNIGHT...BUT SOME PATCHY MVFR FOG IS POSSIBLE AROUND
SUNRISE SATURDAY MORNING. LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS THIS EVENING WILL
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT...THEN VEER TO SOUTH TO
SOUTHWESTERLY ON SATURDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFF TO
THE EAST OF OUR AREA.

SHAMBURGER

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 PM CDT FRI JUN 14 2013/

DISCUSSION...A NICE JUNE DAY WAS UNDERWAY WITH SUNNY
SKIES...TOLERABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS AND TEMPERATURES FROM THE UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S. MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT
UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. LOWS WILL BE SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT...MAINLY
UPPER 50S.

THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...TEMPS AND HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE ON THE
RISE AS THE SURFACE HIGH GRADUALLY MOVES EASTWARD AND A WEAK FRONT
DROPS TO THE OH VALLEY BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THE DRY WX WILL CONTINUE
MUCH OF THE WEEKEND...BUT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A
SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT WILL BRING A GREATER CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY..AND ESPECIALLY INTO MONDAY EVENING WHEN A
FEW STRONGER STORMS WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

WE WILL KEEP AT LEAST SMALL POPS GOING THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE
FRONT DRAGS SLOWLY THROUGH THE AREA. MODELS DIFFER A BIT ON THE
MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT AND HOW QUICKLY DRIER AIR MOVES IN...BUT THE
POP TREND WILL BE DOWNWARD AFTER MONDAY EVENING WITH A DRY
FORECAST BY WEDNESDAY.

LATE WEEK...TEMPS WILL REMAIN SEASONABLY WARM. NW FLOW ALOFT MAY
BRING SOME DISTURBANCES WITH AT LEAST OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS.

13

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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