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FXUS64 KOHX 122359
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
659 PM CDT WED JUN 12 2013

.UPDATE...FOR 00Z AVIATION FORECAST

&&

.AVIATION...
KEPT VFR CONDITIONS AT TEMINALS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...HOWEVER
THERE IS A SHORT WAVE DROPPING DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE
TONIGHT THAT WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 10Z IN NORTHWEST MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND
INTO THE NASHVILLE AREA AROUND 12Z AND ON THE PLATEAU ABOUT 14Z.
THE BETTER CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WOULD BE ACROSS NORTHEAST MIDDLE
TENNESSEE AND UPPER CUMBERLAND. A COOL FRONT WILL SWEEP DOWN
THROUGH THE MID STATE DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY ACCOMPANIED BY A
WIND SHIFT AND GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS.

BOYD
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 336 PM CDT WED JUN 12 2013/

DISCUSSION...
FORECAST REASONING WILL LEAN TOWARD A CONSENSUS MODEL SOLUTION
COMPROMISE FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED.

FORECAST QUANDARIES...SHWR/TSTM CHANCES LATE TONIGHT INTO THU...ANY
CHANCES FOR SVR TSTMS LATE TONIGHT INTO THU ERN HALF...OVERALL WX
PATTERN NEXT WEEK...TEMPS.

WITH THE NW UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE MID STATE THRU
SAT...MCS DEVELOPMENTS THAT GENERATE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AS IT IS
STARTING TO LOOK LIKE IS HAPPENING AS THESE AFTERNOON HRS PROGRESS TODAY
WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF DROPPING SEWD AND POTENTIALLY INFLUENCES OUR WX
HERE ACROSS THE MID STATE LATE TONIGHT AND INTO THU....ESPECIALLY ACROSS
ERN PORTIONS OF THE MID STATE. THIS DEVELOPMENT...SEWD MOVEMENT...AND
CONVECTION STRENGTH WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED AS IT MOVES CLOSER
TO OUR AREA FOR FUTURE ADJUSTMENTS TO OUR SUITE OF FORECAST PRODUCTS FOR
THIS EVENING...BUT DO EXPECT ANY MCS ACTIVITY TO BE GENERALLY WEAKER AS IT
MOVES INTO THESE PORTIONS OF THE MID STATE DURING THIS TIME PERIOD THAN
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL BEING DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH NOT THE
BEST EXPECTED OVERALL SUPPORTIVE LOW LEVEL JET DYNAMICS IN PLACE ACROSS OUR
NECK OF THE WOODS TO KEEP ORGANIZED SVR TSTMS POTENTIAL HIGH...BUT THERE WILL
BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE SHOULD BE PRESENT TO SUPPORT A CHANCE OF
SHWRS/TSTMS BY THE MORNING HRS ON THU ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE MID STATE...
WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE WRN PORTIONS. CONVECTION DEVELOPMENT WILL BE AIDED BY A
TYPICAL SUMMERTIME WEAK SFC FRONTAL PASSAGE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES ON THU ALSO.
SPC`S DAY TWO CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CONTINUES TO KEEP LOCATIONS JUST W OF AND
ACROSS THE PLATEAU IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SVR TSTMS...WITH SOME OF THESE TSTMS
HAVING THE POTENTIAL OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. THOUGH NO
ORGANIZED FLOODING POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED...WOULD NOT WITH THE AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE
MOISTURE IN PLACE BE SURPRISED FOR SOME LOCATIONS TO EXPERIENCE BRIEF HEAVY
DOWNPOURS RESULTING IN SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH ANY CONVECTION
THAT DOES DEVELOP. BELIEVE THAT A CHANCE OF SHWRS/TSTMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE PLATEAU REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON HRS ON THU...WITH DRIER AIR WORKING IN
BEHIND THE SFC FRONTAL PASSAGE TO ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS NW PORTIONS OF THE
MID STATE WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHWRS/TSTMS ACROSS THE REST OF THE MID STATE
ON THU AFTERNOON. WITH SFC RIDGING DYNAMICS IN PLACE ACROSS THE MID STATE THU
NIGHT THRU FRI NIGHT AND A DRY UPPER LEVEL NWLY FLOW PATTERN EXPECTED...DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THRU FRI NIGHT. AS FOR TEMPS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...
WILL GO GENERALLY CLOSE TO GFS MOS VALUES ON LOWS FOR TONIGHT...RAISED
OVERNIGHT LOWS BY A FEW DEGREES PLATEAU WITH EXPECTED ADDITIONAL CLOUD
COVERAGE...AND WILL GO CLOSE TO GFS VALUES THRU FRI NIGHT. AS FOR AFTERNOON
HIGH TEMP VALUES...THU SHOULD NOT BE AS WARM AS THIS AFTERNOON VALUES...WITH
TEMPS CLOSER TO SEASONABLE NORMAL VALUES ON THU AND EVEN SLIGHTLY COOLER VALUES
ON FRI AS SFC RIDGING INFLUENCES BUILD INTO THE MID STATE.

AS FOR SAT THRU THE MID PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...AS MENTIONED ALSO IN THIS
MORNING`S AFD AND MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO ILLUSTRATE...POTENTIAL MCS
DEVELOPMENTS SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY TO OUR NE AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DYNAMICS
CONTINUE TO HOLD...WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING PATTERN FINALLY BREAKING DOWN
DURING THE LATE SUN-MON TIME FRAME...WITH FLOW BECOMING MORE ZONAL IN NATURE
UNTIL SFC/ALOFT RIDGING INFLUENCES AGAIN BUILD BACK ACROSS THE MID STATE AREA
BY MIDWEEK. ANOTHER SFC FRONTAL PASSAGE IS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY ON TUE ALSO.
SEEMS LIKE MORE CONSENSUS HAS ALSO BEEN REACHED BETWEEN THE LATEST EURO/GFS/DGEX
SOLUTIONS ON THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD THAN
PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS HAVE SUGGESTED. THUS...EXPECT ONLY TO MAKE SOME MINOR TWEEKS
HERE AND THERE TO CURRENT FORECAST GRIDDED VALUES WHICH GENERALLY SHOW ISO/SCT
MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHWRS/TSTMS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. AS FOR
TEMPS...AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S...MID 80S PLATEAU WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS SPANNING THE 60S...I.E. TEMPS CLOSE
TO OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONABLE NORMS.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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