Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KOKX 190011 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 811 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK TROUGH PUSHES NORTH OF THE REGION LATE TONIGHT WITH ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDING DOWN FROM SOUTHERN CANADA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE AREA FROM TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS DOWN FROM SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA INTO THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
FORECAST ON TRACK...WITH OVERALL A SPLIT FLOW ACROSS THE COUNTRY WITH NORTHERN BRANCH OF UPPER LEVEL JET STAYING NORTH OF THE REGION. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS. THE AXIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES NEAR BY SATURDAY MORNING. AN OVERALL WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO LIGHT WINDS AND THEY WILL BECOME MORE NORTHERLY TOWARDS DAYBREAK SATURDAY. THE CLOUDS WILL LIMIT THE LOWER POTENTIAL OF TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. THINK ENOUGH RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL OCCUR ACROSS PARTS OF THE INTERIOR FOR AREAS OF FROST WHERE WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER BUT WILL BE VERY LOCALIZED AND RESTRICTED TO BEST COOLING SPOTS FARTHER SOUTH. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WERE A BLEND OF 3/4 MET AND 1/4 MAV...WHICH IS PREFERRING THE COLDER SIDE OF GUIDANCE. VALUES OVERALL WILL BE AT LEAST A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/... FOR SATURDAY...RIDGING TREND IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL BEHIND THE TROUGH WILL PROMOTE SUBSIDENCE AND KEEP A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING INTO QUEBEC WITH WINDS BEING OUT OF THE NORTH. THE SETUP IS THERE FOR A MUCH WARMER DAY ACROSS THE REGION. THE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP MARINE INFLUENCE TO A MINIMUM AND DOWNSLOPE WILL LEAD TO WARMER TEMPERATURES EVEN AT THE COAST. MAX TEMPERATURES WERE A BLEND OF 1/2 MAV AND 1/2 GMOS AND INCREASED BY TWO...PREFERRING THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE. FORECAST MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE AROUND 5-6 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL THEN BUILD INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS...A QUASI-ZONAL FLOW WILL RESULT WITH A CUTOFF LOW MOVING OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST. WHILE THE SUBSIDENCE WILL STILL BE STRONG SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE RIDGE AXIS MOVING ACROSS...AN INCREASING NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL PROMOTE LOWER DEWPOINTS. WHILE THE LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE SIMILAR TO THOSE OF THE PREVIOUS NIGHT...THE RH LEVELS WILL BE LOWER...LIMITING FROST POTENTIAL. SUNDAY WITH THIS RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING AND MORE ONSHORE COMPONENT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST...TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER AT THE COAST. THERE WILL BE MORE MARINE INFLUENCE. HIGHS WERE A BLEND OF ECE AND GMOS AND WILL BE PRETTY CLOSE TO NORMAL VALUES. STILL KEEPING CLOUDS LOWER WITH HIGH PRESSURE NOT TOO FAR AWAY...THEREBY ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. ON SUNDAY NIGHT...GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL AID IN LOW TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S. MONDAY`S HIGH TEMPERATURE WILL MAINLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S...WHICH IS NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. A SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT...WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TRACKING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. 12Z GFS KEEPS THE COLD FRONT TO OUR WEST ON TUESDAY THEREFORE KEPT CONDITIONS DRY DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY EVENING/NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND REMAINS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL ON TUESDAY...NEAR NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND ABOVE NORMAL ON FRIDAY. && .AVIATION /23Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST WHILE WEAKENING TONIGHT. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY THE INFLUENCE OF ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDING ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA. VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT BECOMING GUSTY ON SAT IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. LOW CONFIDENCE AS TO WHETHER OR NOT STRATUS DEVELOPS...BUT IF IT DOES OCCUR...WOULD EXPECT EASTERN TERMINALS TO HAVE THE HIGHEST CHC DUE TO THE LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO SEE ON IR SAT NOW THAT THE SUN HAS SET WITH THE VEIL OF HIGH CLOUDS OHD. NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT... DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE) KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: FROPA TIMING BETWEEN 08Z AND 12Z. TIMING OF GUSTS DIMINISHING MAY BE +/- 1-2 HOURS. KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: FROPA TIMING BETWEEN 08Z AND 12Z. TIMING OF GUSTS DIMINISHING MAY BE +/- 1-2 HOURS. KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: FROPA TIMING BETWEEN 08Z AND 12Z. TIMING OF GUSTS DIMINISHING MAY BE +/- 1-2 HOURS. KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: FROPA TIMING BETWEEN 08Z AND 12Z. GUSTS MAY DIMINISH A FEW HOURS EARLIER THAN FORECAST. KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: FROPA TIMING BETWEEN 08Z AND 12Z. GUSTS MAY DIMINISH A FEW HOURS EARLIER THAN FORECAST. KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS RETURNING TONIGHT. FROPA TIMING BETWEEN 09Z AND 13Z. GUSTS MAY DIMINISH A A FEW HOURS EARLIER THAN FORECAST. .OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... .SAT NIGHT-TUE AFTN...VFR. .TUE LATE AFTERNOON-WEDNESDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE WITH SHOWERS...COLD FROPA.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10Z SATURDAY AS LINGERING EASTERLY SWELL KEEPS HIGHER SEAS WITHIN THE FORECAST COASTAL OCEAN ZONES. ELSEWHERE...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE GAINING CONTROL. ONCE THE SEAS ON THE OCEAN SUBSIDE EARLY SATURDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED THERE AS WELL THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL BE MARGINAL DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...WITH GUSTS UP TO MOSTLY 20 KT. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR ANOTHER POTENTIAL SCA EVENT FOR OCEAN SEAS ON SUNDAY WITH THE MORE EASTERLY FLOW. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. SEAS ACROSS OCEAN WATERS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO SCA CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BACK TO BELOW SCA CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY AND REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .FIRE WEATHER...
-- Changed Discussion --
A DRY DAY SATURDAY WITH GUSTY N-NW FLOW WILL LEAD TO LOWER DEWPOINTS AND THEREFORE LOWER RH VALUES. MIN RH VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 18 AND 30 PERCENT MOSTLY. WIND GUSTS WILL BE UP TO 20-25 MPH AT TIMES THROUGH THE DAY. THIS WILL ENHANCE FIRE SPREAD POTENTIAL.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .HYDROLOGY... NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A RAINFALL EVENT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. AT THIS TIME...THERE IS TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO SPECIFY EXACT AMOUNTS OR ANY POTENTIAL IMPACTS - IF ANY. NOTE...MINOR FLOODING CONTINUES ALONG THE CONNECTICUT RIVER. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST FLOOD WARNINGS FROM NWS TAUNTON MA. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FIG/JM NEAR TERM...JM SHORT TERM...JM LONG TERM...FIG AVIATION... MARINE...FIG/JM FIRE WEATHER... HYDROLOGY...FIG/JM

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.