Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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410 FXUS61 KOKX 231408 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 1008 AM EDT Wed Aug 23 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front exits to the east this morning, followed by Canadian high pressure building into the region through the weekend. Low pressure may impact the area during the middle of next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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The fcst is on track with no major changes made. There could be an isolated shower this morning ahead of the front over Long Island, also across southern CT ahead of an interesting southward- moving outflow boundary from overnight showers in the Berkshires. Otherwise today should be mainly dry, with skies already mostly sunny from NYC north/west and becoming mostly sunny by afternoon farther east. With abundant sunshine this afternoon, highs should reach up to 5 degrees above average. Highs should range from around 80 to the mid 80s across most of the area. There is a moderate rip current risk at the ocean beaches.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/... A mean trough builds into the eastern 1/3 of the country tonight and Thursday, with the trough axis staying well to the west. At this time no significant shortwaves are progged to be embedded in the resultant SW flow aloft, so it should be dry tonight and Thursday with minimal cloud cover. With a mostly clear to clear sky and winds falling off to generally 5 mph or less outside of urban areas, should see some decent radiational cooling outside of urban areas. Lows should range from near normal in the NYC Metro to up to 5 degrees below normal elsewhere. Lows into the 50s are expected outside of the NYC Metro, western Long Island and the immediate CT coast, where 60s are forecast. Highs on Thursday will be around 5 degrees cooler than today, mainly from the mid 70s to around 80. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... A broad area of Canadian high pressure will build over the Northeast thru the weekend and into the beginning of next week. This will produce fair weather with blw average temps. A blend of the guidance was used which was in good agreement. Cyclonic flow aloft will result in diurnal cu at times, and an isold shwr cannot be ruled out. The exact coverage, placement and timing is too uncertain to include anything in the fcst attm except for nrn Orange county on Fri where there is a clustering of model output. A 15 pop was included there. The models are suggesting the development of low pres off the Mid- Atlantic during the middle of next week. Both the 00Z GFS and ECMWF have something. A consensus of all the models was used for pcpn potential, and pops were limited to the slight chance category due to the time window being a week out with high uncertainty. && .AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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A cold front will move across the region this morning. Conditions have improved to VFR and should remain VFR through the TAF period. Tricky wind forecast this morning as the cold front passes through. City terminals have been gusting into the high teens, but should diminish between 14-15Z. Winds should be north northwest this morning, then turn west northwest this afternoon. Northwest to West flow may be just strong enough to preclude seabreeze development this afternoon. NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support... Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 KJFK TAF Comments: Timing of wind direction change may be off by +/- 1 hour. Low chance of afternoon seabreeze development. The afternoon KJFK haze potential forecast is GREEN...which implies slant range visibility 7SM or greater outside of cloud. KLGA TAF Comments: Timing of wind direction change may be off by +/- 1 hour. The afternoon KLGA haze potential forecast is GREEN...which implies slant range visibility 7SM or greater outside of cloud. KEWR TAF Comments: Timing of wind direction change may be off by +/- 1 hour. The afternoon KEWR haze potential forecast is GREEN...which implies slant range visibility 7SM or greater outside of cloud. KTEB TAF Comments: Timing of wind direction change may be off by +/- 1 hour. KHPN TAF Comments: Timing of wind direction change may be off by +/- 1 hour. KISP TAF Comments: Timing of wind direction change may be off by +/- 1 hour. .OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... .Thursday-Sunday...VFR.
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&& .MARINE...
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Ocean seas are still at 5 ft at the outer buoys, and should subside today as winds have diminished, falling to below SCA levels W of Moriches inlet by 11 am and E of Moriches inlet by 2 pm. Quiet thereafter into Sunday night.
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&& .HYDROLOGY...
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Dry through the weekend.
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&& .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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Astronomical high tides are on the high side. Water levels however should stay below minor coastal flood benchmarks.
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&& .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for ANZ353- 355. Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ350. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMC/Maloit NEAR TERM...Maloit SHORT TERM...Maloit LONG TERM...JMC AVIATION...CB/BC MARINE...JMC/Maloit HYDROLOGY...JMC/Maloit TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

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