Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 031138 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 738 AM EDT WED JUN 3 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND TODAY THEN MOVES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST AND HEADS NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FRIDAY AND MOVE THROUGH EARLY ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN LATE ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON SUNDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE AREA FOR THE START OF THE NEW WEEK INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... FORECAST ON TRACK...ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO REFLECT CURRENT OBSERVATIONS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA BUILDS SOUTH INTO NEW ENGLAND TODAY. ALOFT WEAK RIDGING BUILDS WITH MAINLY WEAK ZONAL FLOW. A PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL KEEP MUCH OF THE REGION CLOUDY THROUGH THE DAY. AS A RESULT TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS TODAY. THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT THE OCEAN BEACHES OF SOUTHEASTERN SUFFOLK COUNTY. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/... CONTINUED WEAK ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL UNITED STATES TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY WILL ALLOW FOR A CUTOFF LOW OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES TO MEANDER...DRIFTING SLOWLY TOWARD THE COAST. AT THE SURFACE THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WITH AN EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUING. THE HIGH NOSES SOUTHWARD ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS. MEANWHILE THE WEAK SURFACE LOW OR INVERTED TROUGH MOVES SLOWLY UP THE COAST. WITH THE HIGH NOSING DOWN ALONG THE APPALACHIANS AND UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHERE THE CUTOFF LOW WILL GO...WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY THROUGH THURSDAY. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... THIS PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH A GENERAL ZONAL FLOW ALOFT OVER THE NORTHEAST...WHILE OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S....A CUT OFF LOW WILL MEANDER OVER THAT PART OF THE COUNTRY. THIS WILL HELP TO INDUCE A WEAK SURFACE LOW JUST OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL NOSE INTO OUR AREA...REMINISCENT OF A DAMMING SITUATION IN THE WINTER. THERE IS A GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY IN BOTH OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE MODELS WITH THE TRACK OF THE LOW AS IT TRACKS NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. DID NOTE THAT THE 00Z ECMWF DID COME MORE IN LINE WITH THE 00Z GFS...WITH ONLY THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF THE SYSTEM MAKING ITS WAY INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. AS SUCH....WILL ONLY MAKE MINOR CHANGES IN THE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...DECREASING POPS SOMEWHAT. ONLY LIGHT RAIN IS FORECAST WITH THIS SYSTEM. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE ON FRIDAY...AND PUSH THROUGH EARLY ON SATURDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND IT. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR SATURDAY...WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS EARLY IN THE DAY AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY MOVES OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND PUSHES INTO THE GULF OF MAINE ON SUNDAY. WITH DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE WEST ON MONDAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER COULD AFFECT THE REGION INTO THE MIDWEEK PERIOD. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...FRIDAY WILL BE WARMER THAN THURSDAY...BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MORE SEASONABLE ON SATURDAY...IN THE 70S REGION-WIDE. SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AS COOLER AIR WORKS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES REBOUND BACK TO SEASONABLE LEVELS FOR NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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HI PRES WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE N TODAY. MVFR CIGS HAVE SCT OUT FASTER THAN ANTICIPATED WITH VFR CONDS AT MOST TAF SITES. PATCHES OF THESE LOWER CLOUDS ARE STILL FLOATING AROUND...BUT TREND THROUGH 15Z SHOULD BE A RETURN TO VFR AT ALL TERMINALS WHICH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING. DEPENDING ON HOW THICK HIGH CLOUDS ARE TONIGHT...COULD HAVE SOME PATCHY RADIATION FOG AT KSWF/KHPN AFT 06Z. MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST...ALTHOUGH TIMING OF WINDS SHIFTING TO E THEN SE MAY BE +/- 1-2 HOURS. NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT... DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE) KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: CIGS BLO 2K FT POSSIBLE BETWEEN 12Z-14Z. KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: CIGS BLO 2K FT POSSIBLE BETWEEN 12Z-14Z. KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: CIGS BLO 2K FT POSSIBLE BETWEEN 12Z-14Z. THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD. KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: CIGS BLO 2K FT POSSIBLE BETWEEN 12Z-14Z. KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: CIGS BLO 2K FT POSSIBLE BETWEEN 12Z-14Z. KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: CIGS BLO 2K FT POSSIBLE BETWEEN 12Z-14Z. LOW CHC OF BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR. .OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... .THU-THU NIGHT...VFR POSSIBLY DROPPING TO MVFR LATE THU NIGHT WITH AREAS OF RAIN DEVELOPING AT SRN TERMINALS. HOWEVER...MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL FRI. .FRI-FRI NIGHT...CHANCE OF RAIN WITH MVFR CONDITIONS IN THE MORNING. CHANCE OF TSTMS AFTN INTO EVE. MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE. .SAT...A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE. .SAT NIGHT-SUN...VFR.
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&& .MARINE... HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS NORTH OF THE FORECAST WATERS TODAY INTO THURSDAY. A WEAK LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY THURSDAY TRACKS A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH DURING THURSDAY. WIND REMAINS FROM THE EAST TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...STRENGTHENING THURSDAY WITH THE LOW MOVING INTO THE HIGH. WIND AND SEAS REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT TODAY AND TONIGHT. SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS MAY BUILD TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS DURING THURSDAY WITH THE INCREASED EASTERLY FLOW. WAVES SHOULD SUBSIDE TO BELOW SCA CRITERIA THURSDAY NIGHT. THEREAFTER...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. WAVES BUILD ON A SOUTHERLY FLOW ON MONDAY TO ABOVE 5 FT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. && .HYDROLOGY... DRY THROUGH THURSDAY. NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS THEN POSSIBLE STARTING MONDAY. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JP/MET NEAR TERM...JP/MET SHORT TERM...MET LONG TERM...JP AVIATION...24 MARINE...JP/MET HYDROLOGY...JP/MET

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