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000
FXUS61 KOKX 190544
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
144 AM EDT WED JUN 19 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT HAS PASSED SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING
OFF THE DELMARVA COAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN BEHIND
THE FRONT AND REMAINS IN CONTROL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A
WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON SATURDAY...STALLING OVER OR NEAR THE
AREA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
COLD FRONT IS JUST OFFSHORE AND WILL CONTINUE TO HEAD SOUTH
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. LOW CHANCE POPS WITH MOSTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS. LOWS FROM THE LOWER TO MID 50S ACROSS THE
INTERIOR TO LOWER 60S CLOSER TO THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ON WEDNESDAY AS MUCH DRIER AIR MOVES FILTERS
INTO THE REGION. EXPECTING DEW POINTS TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 40S AND
LOWER 50S WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL IN THE MIDDLE
AND UPPER 70S. MAY SEE SEA BREEZES DEVELOP AT THE COAST IN THE
AFTERNOON.

TRANQUIL CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL BE
OBSERVED SO FORECASTING LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S ACROSS
THE INTERIOR AND MIDDLE 50S ACROSS LONG ISLAND. FOR NEW YORK
CITY...LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 60S.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT ATLANTIC OCEAN BEACHES
ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GLOBAL MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL UPPER PATTERN
DURING THE LONG TERM SIGNIFYING A MEAN TROUGH GRADUALLY GIVING
WAY TO RISING HEIGHTS.

AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NE AND MID ATLANTIC ON THU
WILL MOVE OFFSHORE AND REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC INTO SAT WITH A RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING. MODELS ARE
HINTING AT ISOLD CONVECTION FRI AFTERNOON/EARLY EVE...BUT AM HAVING A
HARD TIME FINDING A TRIGGER AND SOUNDINGS ARE INDICATING A MID
LEVEL CAP SO HAVE REMOVED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE N ON SAT...ALTHOUGH EC HAS A MORE DEFINED
SHORTWAVE ALOFT AND IS THEREFORE MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN THE
GFS. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO STALL NEAR OR OVER THE LOCAL AREA
SAT NIGHT INTO TUE. THE POTENTIAL FOR MCS/MCCS EXIST IF THE THE
OPERATIONAL EC SOLN IS REALIZED AS WE WILL BE ON THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE NORTHERN JET.

AS FOR TEMPS...A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED WITH HEIGHTS BUILDING
RESULTING IN MORE SUMMER LIKE WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH TONIGHT.

MVFR/IFR START GIVING WAY TO VFR BY 9-10Z. LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
THIS END TIME KGON/KHPN WHERE LOWER CEILINGS SOMETIMES HANG AROUND
LONGER THAN EXPECTED.

NNE-NE WINDS AROUND 10 KT BECOME NNE-N AROUND 10 KT BY THE MORNING
PUSH. KEWR COULD SEE GUSTS TO 15-20 KT AROUND MIDDAY...WITH
ISOLATED GUSTS POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE AROUND MIDDAY. SEABREEZE
EXPECTED MID-LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
KBDR/KGON/KJFK/KISP/KLGA/KEWR. WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT
ALL TERMINALS THIS EVENING.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY MORNING...VFR.
.FRIDAY AFTERNOON-SATURDAY NIGHT. MAINLY VFR...EXCEPT MVFR OR
LOWER POSSIBLE IN ISOLD-SCT SHRA/TSRA MAINLY TO THE N/W OF CITY
TERMINALS EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING.
.SUNDAY...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 25 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
THE EASTERN OCEAN WATERS OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE FIRST HALF OF
WEDNESDAY MORNING. WEAKER GUSTS ANTICIPATED THEREAFTER.

WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
SEAS WILL REMAIN UNDER SCA CRITERIA. WINDS AND SEAS ARE THEN
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT FOR THE REMAINDER OF
NIGHT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DS/24
NEAR TERM...JC/DW/DS
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...24
AVIATION...MALOIT
MARINE...DW/DS/24
HYDROLOGY...DS/24