Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 221138 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 638 AM EST MON DEC 22 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SLOWLY DEPARTS TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH. THAT LOW WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES NORTH THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM AFFECTS THE AREA WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY CHRISTMAS DAY WITH A COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN LATE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEAK TROUGH MOVES THROUGH DRY SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER LOW APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH SUNDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW A SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES SLOWLY SHIFTING WEST AND PRODUCING LIGHT PCPN. MOISTURE IS SHALLOW...SO WHERE IT IS WARM ENOUGH...PATCHY DRIZZLE. AND WHERE TEMPS ARE CLOSE TO OR BELOW FREEZING...FLURRIES EXPECTED AS IT APPEARS TO BE JUST COLD ENOUGH FOR ICE NUCLEI TO BE PRESENT. SOME CONCERN HOWEVER THAT SOME OF THE INLAND SPOTS (INTERIOR SW CT AND ADJACENT PARTS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY) MIGHT NOT HAVE ICE NUCLEI...BEING FARTHER AWAY FROM THE FLOW OFF THE OCEAN AND SOUND. THIS COULD RESULT IN AREAS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE THIS MORNING INSTEAD OF FLURRIES. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS. HAVE ADDED DRIZZLE/FLURRIES TO THE FCST FOR THIS MORNING. COVERAGE PROBABLY DIMINISHES AS THE MORNING WEARS ON. OTHERWISE...LOW PRES WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC AREA TODAY AND WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTH LATE AS THE HIGH CONTINUES TO DEPART. WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL PUSH INTO SW ZONES LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. SOME RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE INTO NYC AND PARTS OF NE NJ BY THE EVENING COMMUTE. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS COASTAL ZONES TO THE UPPER 30S ACROSS THE INTERIOR.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH INTO THE REGION THIS EVENING AHEAD OF THE LOW. WITH COLD AIR ACROSS THE INTERIOR SLOW TO DEPART...CAN EXPECT A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN...MAINLY FOR ORANGE COUNTY...TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND TO LAST THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT. WILL GO AHEAD AND HOIST A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR ORANGE COUNTY FROM 6 PM MONDAY THROUGH 4 AM TUESDAY. BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...ENOUGH WARM AIR SHOULD SURGE NORTHWARD TO CHANGE PRECIP TO PLAIN RAIN...BUT NOT BEFORE A LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATION DEVELOPS. THE EVENING COMMUTE MAY BECOME HAZARDOUS DUE TO THE ICE. OTHERWISE...TEMPS WILL BE WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT PLAIN RAIN FOR THE REST OF THE CWA. LOW PRES THEN WEAKENS AS IT TRACKS NORTH ALONG THE COAST...AND THAT LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE DAY TUESDAY BEFORE DEPARTING TUESDAY NIGHT. THINK THERE WILL BE A BRIEF LULL IN THE PRECIP TUESDAY MORNING IN BETWEEN THE FIRST WAVE OF PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT AND THE SECOND WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW. LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER 30S ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND WILL SLOWLY RISE DURING THE OVERNIGHT. ELSEWHERE...CAN EXPECT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. WITH WAA BEHIND THE WARM FRONT...HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID AND UPPER 40S FOR MOST AREAS...AND INTO THE LOW 50S FOR COASTAL AREAS. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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SOME LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAKENED LOW APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH BRINGS THE LIKELIHOOD OF LIGHT RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT. FOR CHRISTMAS EVE AND CHRISTMAS DAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION...SENDING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CWA LATE NIGHT WEDS INTO THURSDAY MORNING. RAIN WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WITH A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET...THE RAIN COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES WEDS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BY DAYBREAK ON CHRISTMAS...RAIN WILL BE LIKELY ONLY FOR A FEW HOURS ACROSS EASTERN LI AND SE CT. FARTHER WEST...ONLY A CHANCE OF A SHOWER EARLY ON...SO MOST OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY. AS FOR WINDS DURING THIS PERIOD...LOOKS LIKE WE WILL FALL SHORT OF WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA DURING WEDS/WEDS NIGHT IN SPITE OF THE STRONG LOW LEVEL JET THAT WILL PASSING OVER THE EASTERN ZONES. THESE STRONGER WINDS WILL HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME MIXING DOWN THROUGH A STRONG LOW LEVEL INVERSION. THERE IS HOWEVER A CHANCE OF A FEW GUSTS GETTING UP TO NEAR ADVISORY CRITERIA ON THURSDAY IF GFS VERIFIES. ECMWF IS WEAKER WITH WINDS HOWEVER. BEST GUESS RIGHT NOW IS THAT WE FALL JUST BELOW CRITERIA...BUT GUSTS TO CRITERIA ARE STILL NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. TEMPERATURES BOTH DAYS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL...IN THE 50S BOTH DAYS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ON FRIDAY WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND TEMPERATURES STILL ABOVE NORMALS. FOR SATURDAY...A WEAKENING COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND EITHER WASHES OUT OR PASSES THROUGH AS TROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. NOT MUCH MOISTURE WITH THIS FEATURE...SO KEPT A DRY FORECAST FOR BOTH PERIODS. MODELS ARE IN DISAGREEMENT ABOUT WHAT HAPPENS ON SUNDAY. FOR A COUPLE OF RUNS NOW...ECMWF HAS LOW PRESSURE PASSING THROUGH OR NEARBY...WITH THE GFS FAVORING A NORTHERN STREAM LOW PRESSURE CENTER PASSING WELL TO THE NORTH...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH HERE. WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS FOR NOW. WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION TYPE SIMPLE FOR NOW WITH JUST RAIN...SNOW...OR A MIX OF THE TWO.
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&& .AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RIDGE DOWN FROM SOUTHEASTERN CANADA... AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LINGERS NEAR THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH LATE TONIGHT. MAINLY MVFR THROUGH THE DAY...WITH LOCALIZED VARIABILITY TO IFR OR VFR. EXCEPTION IS KGON WHICH SHOULD REMAIN PREDOMINATELY VFR THROUGH THE DAY. PATCHY LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE/SNOW POSSIBLE THIS MORNING...MAINLY TO THE EAST OF A KSWF-KISP LINE. CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE AT ANY GIVEN POINT IS TOO LOW TO REFLECT IN TAFS AT THIS TIME. SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN IS THEN POSSIBLE AT ALL TERMINALS FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. APPEARS IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP AT ALL TERMINALS OVERNIGHT WITH SLIGHTLY STEADIER LIGHT RAINFALL EXPECTED. N-NE WINDS UNDER 10 KT...GRADUALLY VEER TO THE E-ENE THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS BACK TO THE NE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT...WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO AROUND 10KT AT COASTAL TERMINALS. NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT... DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE) KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: VARYING CEILINGS POSSIBLE. TIMING IN CHANGES IN WIND DIRECTION COULD BE OFF +/- 1-3 HOURS. SPOTTY -RA/DZ POSSIBLE THROUGH 16Z. KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: VARYING CEILINGS POSSIBLE. TIMING IN CHANGES IN WIND DIRECTION COULD BE OFF +/- 1-3 HOURS. SPOTTY -RA/DZ POSSIBLE THROUGH 16Z. KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: VARYING CEILINGS POSSIBLE. TIMING IN CHANGES IN WIND DIRECTION COULD BE OFF +/- 1-3 HOURS. SPOTTY -RA/DZ POSSIBLE THROUGH 16Z. THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS YELLOW...WHICH IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 4-6SM OUTSIDE OF CLOUD. KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: VARYING CEILINGS POSSIBLE. TIMING IN CHANGES IN WIND DIRECTION COULD BE OFF +/- 1-3 HOURS. SPOTTY -RA/DZ/SN POSSIBLE THROUGH 16Z. KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: VARYING CEILINGS POSSIBLE. TIMING IN CHANGES IN WIND DIRECTION COULD BE OFF +/- 1-3 HOURS. SPOTTY -RA/SN/DZ POSSIBLE THROUGH 16Z. KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: VARYING CEILINGS POSSIBLE. TIMING IN CHANGES IN WIND DIRECTION COULD BE OFF +/- 1-3 HOURS. SPOTTY -RA/DZ POSSIBLE THROUGH 16Z. .OUTLOOK FOR 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... .LATE TONIGHT...IFR LIKELY. .TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...IFR LIKELY. E WINDS G15-20 KT PROBABLE... BECOMING SE. .WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH IMPACT EVENT BECOMING LIKELY. IFR WITH +RA. S/SE WINDS 15-20G20-25KT POSSIBLE. LLWS PROBABLE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN TERMINALS. WINDS SHIFT TO THE SW LATE AT NIGHT. .THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...IMPROVING TO VFR IN THE MORNING FROM W TO E. WSW-NW WINDS G30-35+KT LIKELY. .FRIDAY...VFR. WNW WINDS G20-25KT POSSIBLE.
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&& .MARINE... NE WINDS 10-15 KT ACROSS THE WATERS TODAY AS HIGH PRES NORTH OF THE WATERS SLOWLY DEPARTS AND A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH DEVELOPING LOW PRES OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC LIFTS TO THE NORTH. THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS OVER EASTERN OCEAN WATERS LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...AND WILL HOIST A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ANZ350 DUE TO WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KT AND SEAS BUILDING TO 4-6 FT. SCA MAY HAVE TO BE EXPANDED TO ALL OCEAN WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT. ALL OTHER WATERS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE MIDWEST WEDNESDAY WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW...AND GUSTS WILL INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS ACROSS ALL THE WATERS BY LATE WEDNESDAY. THEN WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE WIND GUSTS ON THE OCEAN INCREASE TO GALE FORCE. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PASSES THROUGH THE WATERS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. SOUTHERLY WIND SHIFTS TO THE WEST TO NORTHWEST AND BECOMES VERY GUSTY IN THE COLDER AIR. GALE FORCE GUSTS WILL PROBABLY FOR ALL WATERS DURING THURSDAY BEFORE SUBSIDING BELOW GALE FORCE THURSDAY NIGHT...AND POSSIBLY BELOW SMALL CRAFT BY THE END OF FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. SEAS ON THE OCEAN WILL HOWEVER REMAIN AT CRITERIA LEVELS THROUGH FRIDAY. && .HYDROLOGY... RAINFALL FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING COULD TOTAL 1 1/2 TO 2 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. MUCH OF THE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MINOR URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING IS POSSIBLE. DRY WEATHER RETURNS THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NYZ067. NJ...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ350. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MPS/JC NEAR TERM...JC/MPS SHORT TERM...MPS LONG TERM...JC AVIATION...MALOIT MARINE...MPS/JC HYDROLOGY...MPS/JC

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