Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 290800 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 400 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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A WEAK LOW MOVES FARTHER OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH ANOTHER WEAK LOW APPROACHING FROM THE WEST THROUGH TONIGHT. FOR SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY RETURNS AS IT BUILDS IN FROM CENTRAL CANADA. COOL AND UNSETTLED SUN AND MON AS A STATIONARY FRONT SETS UP S OF THE REGION. WEAK HIGH PRES BUILDS IN ON TUE...FOLLOWED BY A POTENTIAL FRONTAL SYS FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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ANOTHER LEFT FRONT QUAD OF A JET STREAK APPROACHES FROM THE WEST TODAY ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE ALOFT. AT THE SURFACE...WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE INTO THE ATLANTIC WITH ANOTHER WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THERE WILL BE ABUNDANT CLOUDS AND WITH THE PRESSURE PATTERN...EASTERLY FLOW WILL BE SET IN PLACE THROUGH THE DAY. ANOTHER COOL DAY IS EXPECTED. USED THE MET GUIDANCE AS THAT GUIDANCE PERFORMED PRETTY WELL YESTERDAY COMPARED TO OBSERVED TEMPERATURES. RAIN CHANCES ARE LOW TO BEGIN THE DAY BUT INCREASE TOWARDS THE END OF THE DAY AS THAT LEFT FRONT QUAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET MOVES CLOSER...ALLOWING FOR BETTER LIFT.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
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FOR TONIGHT...HIGHEST CHANCES OF RAIN ARE THIS EVENING WITH THE LEFT FRONT QUAD OF THE UPPER JET RIGHT ACROSS THE REGION. THIS SHIFTS SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT WITH A LIKEWISE DECREASE OF POPS FOR RAIN AS THE LOW SHIFTS FARTHER OUT TO SEA AT THE SURFACE. ABUNDANT CLOUDS AND ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUE SO USED A RELATIVELY WARMER BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR LOWS...1/3 NAM12 SFC TEMPERATURES AND 2/3 MAV GUIDANCE. FOR SATURDAY...A BRIEF REVISIT OF HIGH PRESSURE WITH RIDGING ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR RELATIVELY WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY. THE SOURCE REGION OF THE HIGH IS IN CENTRAL CANADA. HIGHEST TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ACROSS THE INTERIOR WITH A SE FLOW IN PLACE IN THE AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL KEEP COASTAL LOCATIONS RELATIVELY COOLER WITH MORE MARINE INFLUENCE.
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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00Z MODEL SUITE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST PERIODS OF RAINY WX SUN AND MON. QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT SETS UP S OF THE REGION SAT NGT THRU THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. DEEP TROF ACROSS THE WRN CONUS SHOULD TAP THE SUBTROPICAL PACIFIC AND FUNNEL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. MOISTURE STREAM INTO MEXICO ALREADY APPARENT ON WATER VAPOR. RESIDUAL CONVECTION PROGGED TO SUPPLY EMBEDDED SHRTWV ENERGY...WITH RAIN CHCS THEREFORE BREAKING OUT LATE SAT NGT AND PARTICULARLY ON SUN. LOW PRES DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT THEN LIKELY IMPACTS THE AREA DURING THE SUN NGT-MON TIME PERIOD. THERE REMAINS CONSIDERABLE SPREAD AMONGST THE GFS AND ECMWF WRT THE EXACT LATITUDE OF THE LOW PRES SYS...AND AS A RESULT THE AMT OF RAIN WHICH CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE CWA. TOO MANY MOVING PARTS TO ADEQUATELY PINPOINT TIMING ON SUN...SO HAVE KEPT POPS AT LIKELY. WRT THE LOW...SYS IS TOO FAR OUT TO RAISE POPS ABV HIGH CHC ATTM. IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW...CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT ON TUE. THIS COULD SPARK A FEW SHWRS OR SPRINKLES...AS LAPSE RATES PER THE GFS AROUND 9C/KM UP TO H85. H5 LOW DROPS TO JAMES BAY TUE NGT...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF IN AGREEMENT ON THIS...AND EVENTUALLY CARVES OUT A BROAD UPR TROF ACROSS THE NERN CONUS WED AND THU. THIS SUPPORTS CHCS FOR AT LEAST SHWRS...WITH THE SUGGESTION OF A POTENTIAL SPINUP OFFSHORE WHICH WOULD BRING A CHC FOR MORE ORGANIZED RAINFALL IN THE WED-THU PERIOD.
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&& .AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... THE REGION WILL BE BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND A STATIONARY FRONT TO THE SOUTH THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. VFR. PATCHY LIGHT RAIN WILL DISSIPATE BY DAYBREAK. LIGHT RAIN LIKELY REDEVELOPS LATE THIS AFTN INTO EVE FROM W TO E. E WINDS AROUND 10 KT INTO THIS EVENING. .OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... .FRI NIGHT...VFR. .SAT...VFR. .SUN THROUGH MON...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN RAIN. .TUE...VFR. && .MARINE...
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OCEAN SEAS HAVE TRENDED LOWER THAN FORECAST SO FAR. THEREFORE ADJUSTED THIS FORECAST TO BRING IN HIGHER OCEAN SEAS LATER THIS MORNING CONSISTENT WITH THE SWAN MODEL. ESSENTIALLY THE WINDOW FOR THE OCEAN SCA SEAS HAS BEEN SHIFTED LATER WITH AN EXTENSION MORE IN TIME ON THE BACK END FOR TONIGHT. SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS GOES FROM 10AM THIS MORNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT. IT COULD LINGER LONGER BASED ON THE SWAN MODEL BUT DID NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE FOR TOO LONG OF AN EXTENSION IN TIME. OVERALL THIS WILL BE A MARGINAL EVENT AS OTHER WATERS AND ALL WINDS WILL BE WELL BELOW SCA CRITERIA TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. WINDS AND SEAS BLW SCA LVLS SAT NGT...THEN NELY WINDS INCREASE ON SUN WITH SCA COND POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ON THE OCEAN. LINGERING SEAS AROUND 5 FT ON THE OCEAN MON...THEN WINDS AND SEAS BLW SCA LVLS TUE. POTENTIAL FOR 5 FT SEAS ON THE OCEAN AGAIN WED.
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&& .HYDROLOGY...
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TOTAL RAINFALL THROUGH TONIGHT IS EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH. AROUND AN INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE LATE SAT NGT THRU SUN. ADDITIONAL RAIN IS POSSIBLE ON MON...DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK...SPEED AND INTENSITY OF PASSING LOW PRES.
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&& .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ350-353-355.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...JMC/JM NEAR TERM...JM SHORT TERM...JM LONG TERM...JMC AVIATION...JC MARINE...JMC/JM HYDROLOGY...JMC/JM

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