Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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081 FXUS61 KOKX 112129 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 429 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES CONTINUES TO LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST BUILDS ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES BY MORNING. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FRIDAY NIGHT...AND PASS THROUGH TOWARD DAYBREAK SATURDAY. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST...SETTLING RIGHT ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION MONDAY...WITH A DEVELOPING LOW WELL WEST OF THE REGION THAT WILL BE APPROACHING. THE LOW MOVES ACROSS TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE STARTING TO BUILD THEREAFTER.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
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INSTABILITY CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FLURRY OR SNOW SHOWER WILL PASS TO THE E BY EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS LIFTS TO THE NE AND LAPSE RATES DECREASE WITH DEVELOPING SUBSIDENCE. AS A RESULT...SKIES WILL CLEAR EARLY WITH GUSTY W/NW WINDS SLOW TO DIMINISH. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST BUILDS EAST AND INTO THE AREA BY DAYBREAK. VERY COLD TEMPERATURES TONIGHT COMBINED WITH THE GUSTY WINDS WILL PRODUCE WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. SOME READINGS MAY EVEN BE NEAR OR BELOW ZERO. USED A MET/MAV MOS BLEND FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS...RANGING FROM SINGLE DIGITS INLAND...TO THE LOWER AND MID TEENS AT THE COAST. THIS IS BELOW NORMAL BY 10 TO 15 DEGREES.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
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ANOTHER COLD DAY IS ON TAP FOR FRI WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S. WINDS WILL BE SUBSTANTIALLY LIGHTER AS HIGH PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF THE AREA IN THE MORNING. AN AMPLIFIED UPPER FLOW WITH RIDGING ACROSS WESTERN NORTH AMERICA THEN ALLOWS THE POLAR VORTEX TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS HUDSON BAY AND INTO SE CANADA FRI INTO FRI NIGHT. THIS WILL SEND AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES FRI MORNING INTO THE LOWER LAKES BY FRI EVENING...WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TOWARD DAYBREAK SAT. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FRI AFT AND THEN LOWER AS LARGE SCALE HEIGHT FALLS MOVE INTO THE AREA IN THE EVENING. THERE LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND LIFT FOR SCT SNOW SHOWERS. MODELS ALSO HAVE BEEN SHOWING A HIGHER PROBABILITY ACROSS EASTERN LI/SE CT AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A WEAK INVERTED TROF SETS UP TO THE NW OF A COASTAL LOW PASSING WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. AT THIS TIME...NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN A DUSTING...BUT PERHAPS A LIGHT ACCUMULATION ACROSS EASTERN AREAS IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR MEASURABLE SNOW AT THIS TIME. TEMPS FRI NIGHT WILL ACTUALLY BE NEARLY STEADY IN THE UPPER TEENS TO THE LOWER 20S...BEFORE DROPPING OFF SHARPLY BEHIND THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT SAT MORNING. READINGS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TEENS BY MORNING ACROSS THE INTERIOR...TO THE MID AND UPPER TEENS AT THE COAST.
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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LOOKING AT THE LARGE SCALE WITH THE UPPER LEVEL JET STREAM...THIS IS WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION FOR THIS WEEKEND INTO MONDAY. THE JET SPLITS FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. A JET STREAK MAXIMIZES IN SPEED WEST OF THE REGION TUESDAY...ASSOCIATED WITH A NEGATIVE TILTING SHARPENING TROUGH. THE JET AGAIN PUSHES SOUTH OF THE REGION FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH A RIDGE TO THE WEST APPROACHING FOR NEXT THURSDAY. A DEEP MID LEVEL LOW AT 500MB PUSHES SOUTH INTO NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY AND MOVES EAST TOWARDS NOVA SCOTIA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. MORE OF A SPLIT FLOW AT 500MB AFTER THAT WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE TREND FOR GEOPOTENTIAL TENDENCY AT THIS LEVEL WILL BE POSITIVE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. A SHARPENING TROUGH APPROACHES MONDAY NIGHT AND MOVES ACROSS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. A GENERAL NEGATIVE TREND RESUMES THEREAFTER IN THE HEIGHT TENDENCY WITH ANOTHER LARGE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING IN FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT TIMEFRAME. EXTREMELY COLD WEEKEND WITH HIGHS STAYING BELOW 20 DEGREES OR BELOW. WIND CHILLS RANGE -15 TO -30 SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY...COLDEST ACROSS THE INTERIOR WHERE WIND CHILL WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED. OVERALL...WIND CHILLS STAY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO BELOW ZERO FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. SOME REBOUND IN TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK ESPECIALLY TUESDAY WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50. PRECIPITATION...SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY MAINLY SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND IN RESPONSE TO INVERTED TROUGH. THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA STILL WELL WEST OF THE REGION. THE HIGH MOVES CLOSER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. GUSTY WINDS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A DECREASE IN WINDS SUNDAY AS HIGH CENTER APPROACHES. THE HIGH CENTER MOVES OVERHEAD SUNDAY NIGHT AND OFFSHORE MONDAY. ANOTHER LOW APPROACHES FROM THE WEST MONDAY NIGHT AND MOVES ACROSS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. INITIALLY WINTER PRECIP WILL TRANSITION TO ALL RAIN TUESDAY WHICH COULD BE POTENTIALLY HEAVY AT TIMES. AFTER THE LOW...COLD AIR ADVECTION RESUMES BUT NO EXTREME COLD IS EXPECTED. THE TEMPERATURES WILL TREND TO CLOSE TO NORMAL. THERE WILL BE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS. DRIER TREND TO WEATHER LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO NEXT THURSDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING FROM THE WEST.
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&& .AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION INTO TONIGHT. VFR. CHC -SHSN UNTIL 22Z WITH BRIEF VSBY REDUCTION TO 3-5SM. WNW WINDS...PREVAILING SOUTH OF 310 MAGNETIC...WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 KT FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. WINDS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THIS EVENING. ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT... DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE) KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS:OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 33-35KT POSSIBLE BEFORE 00Z. KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 33-35KT POSSIBLE BEFORE 00Z. KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 33-35KT POSSIBLE BEFORE 00Z. KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL GUSTS 30-33KT POSSIBLE BEFORE 00Z. KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL GUSTS AROUND 35KT POSSIBLE BEFORE 00Z. KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 31-34KT POSSIBLE BEFORE 00Z. .OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... .FRIDAY...VFR. .SATURDAY...MOSTLY VFR. CHC SUB-VFR POSSIBLE IN BRIEF -SHSN. NW GUSTS AROUND 35KT. .SUNDAY...VFR. .MONDAY...VFR DAYTIME...CHC SUB-VFR WITH SNOW AND RAIN/SNOW MIX AT NIGHT. .TUESDAY...SUB-VFR AND RAIN. CHC MIXED PCPN EARLY. SE-S GUSTS TO 30KT POSSIBLE. CHC LLWS.
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&& .MARINE...
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GALES CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT ON ALL WATERS BUT MAY NEED TO BE DROPPED DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS FRI AS HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FRI INTO FRI NIGHT AS SW WINDS DEVELOP AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING ARCTIC COLD FRONT. FRONTAL PASSAGE IS FORECAST AROUND DAYBREAK SAT WITH NW GALES DEVELOPING SOON THEREAFTER. ROUGH CONDITIONS FOR ALL WATERS THIS WEEKEND. GALES LIKELY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. GALES PREVAIL INTO EARLY SUNDAY BEFORE DECREASING TO 20-30 KT DURING THE DAY. FREEZING SPRAY EXPECTED AS WELL THIS WEEKEND FOR MOST OF THE WATERS. WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WILL LEAD TO BELOW SCA CONDITIONS. CONDITIONS TREND BACK UP THOUGH AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE NEXT TUESDAY WITH SCA BECOMING PROBABLE ONCE AGAIN.
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&& .HYDROLOGY...
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LIQUID EQUIVALENT OF LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH IS FORECAST FRI NIGHT IN THE FORM OF SNOW SHOWERS. LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE COAST HAS POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LIQUID EQUIVALENT QPF AT LEAST 1 TO 2 INCHES. PART OF THIS WILL FALL AS SNOW INITIALLY...BUT THEN RUNOFF VIA MELTING SNOW AND HEAVY RAIN TUE INTO TUE NIGHT COULD CAUSE AT LEAST URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING PROBLEMS. IT IS TOO EARLY TO SAY IF MAIN STEM RIVERS WOULD BE AFFECTED.
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&& .CLIMATE...
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WITH THE EXTREMELY COLD AIR MASS FORECAST SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...RECORD MINIMUMS AND RECORD LOW MAXIMUMS MAY BE REACHED. HERE ARE THE RECORDS AND FORECASTS... STATION......RECORD/FCST MINIMUM...RECORD LOW MAXIMUM/FCST HIGH FOR 2/14 FOR 2/14 NYC...........2 (1916) / 3.............17 (1979) / 16 LGA...........1 (1979) / 5.............15 (1979) / 16 JFK...........4 (1979) / 4.............17 (1979) / 17 ISP...........7 (2015) / 0.............26 (1987) / 14 EWR...........0 (1979) / 2.............15 (1979) / 16 BDR...........3 (2015*) / 0.............18 (1979) / 15 *IN 1979 AS WELL
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&& .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR CTZ005>012. NY...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR NYZ067>070. NJ...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR NJZ002-103. MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-340-345- 350-353-355.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...JM/DW NEAR TERM...DW SHORT TERM...DW LONG TERM...JM AVIATION...JC MARINE...JM/DW HYDROLOGY...JM/DW CLIMATE...JM

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