Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 171807 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 207 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THIS AFTERNOON...AND PASS THROUGH BY EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH ON SATURDAY AND PASS THROUGH LATE IN THE DAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND ONTARIO...AND PASS EAST SUNDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG AN APPROACHING FRONT WILL THEN MAKE ITS WAY FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND IMPACT THE AREA FROM MON INTO TUE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN ON WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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PARTIAL CLEARING AFTER THIS MORNING`S RAIN IS LEADING TO WEAK DESTABILIZATION WEST OF THE CITY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S WITH SHOWERS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH. INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY AFTER 3 PM. SOME SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS VIA EVAPORATIVE COOLING OF PRECIPITATION IN A RELATIVELY DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/... WEAK PSEUDO COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS EVENING...BRINGING ANY LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY TO AN END. SKIES SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT...WITH A WIDE RANGE IN LOW TEMPS EXPECTED...RANGING FROM THE 40S IN MOST PLACES...TO THE 50S INVOF NYC...AND POSSIBLY NOT FALLING BELOW 60 AT KLGA. SAT LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE YEAR THUS FAR...WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...DEEP MIXING WITH H8 TEMPS +8 TO +10C...AND DOWNSLOPE WESTERLY FLOW...LEADING TO HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S EVEN ALONG THE COAST...AND NEAR 80 WEST OF NYC. A POTENT NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE DIVING ACROSS UPSTATE NY AND NEW ENGLAND IN THE AFTERNOON WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT THROUGH DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A BAND OF HIGH-BASED STRATOCU AND A NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN WIND...WITH GUSTS 25-35 MPH. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... LITTLE CHANGE IN THE LONG TERM. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA SATURDAY...THEN MOVES OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT. EXPECT DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS. ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY...LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG AN APPROACHING FRONT WILL THEN MAKE ITS WAY FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND IMPACT THE AREA. THE MAIN THREAT WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE THE RAINFALL...WITH THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE UP TO TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL AS IT INTERACTS WITH A TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME STREAMING NORTHWARD UP THE COAST. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THUNDER IN THE FORECAST LATE MONDAY EVENING. RAIN TAPERS OFF TUESDAY EVENING AS THE LOW MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY RETURNS LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. && .AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES TODAY AND PASSES THROUGH THIS EVENING. GENERALLY MVFR THROUGH THE MID AFTERNOON. VFR AFTER 20Z. HOWEVER...SCATTERED -SHRA WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AFTER 18Z...BUT HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FOR TEMPO -SHRA IS 21Z- 02Z. A RETURN TO MVFR CONDITIONS IS POSSIBLE IN ANY -SHRA. A TSTM IS ALSO POSSIBLE...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION IN TAFS. WINDS SHIFT TO THE NW TONIGHT WITH VFR CONDITIONS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...THEN BACK TO THE W OR SW SAT MORNING. WINDS WILL GUST 20-25 KT ON SAT...WITH HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE. SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE ON SAT. BEST CHANCES FOR SEA BREEZES ARE WITH KJFK...KISP...AND KBDR. NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT... DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE) KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR CONDITIONS MAY LAST A COUPLE OF HOURS LONGER THAN IS FORECAST. KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR CONDITIONS MAY LAST A COUPLE OF HOURS LONGER THAN IS FORECAST. KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR CONDITIONS MAY LAST A COUPLE OF HOURS LONGER THAN IS FORECAST. THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD. KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR CONDITIONS MAY LAST A COUPLE OF HOURS LONGER THAN IS FORECAST. KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR CONDITIONS MAY LAST A COUPLE OF HOURS LONGER THAN IS FORECAST. KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: IFR CONDITIONS MAY LAST A COUPLE OF HOURS LONGER THAN IS FORECAST. .OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... .FRI NGT...VFR. .SAT...VFR. SFC WND NW 10-15KT INCREASING WITH GUSTS TO G25KT LATE AFTN. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 30 KT POSSIBLE. .SUN...VFR. SFC WND LIGHT NE BECOMING SE 10KT IN THE AFTN. .MON...MVFR BECOMING IFR. INCREASING ESE SFC WND. G30-35KT IN AFTN. .TUE...MVFR BECOMING VFR. G20-25KT. .WED...VFR BECOMING SUB VFR BY THE AFTN.
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&& .MARINE... S-SW FLOW INCREASING TO JUST OVER 15 KT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT MAY BUILD OCEAN SEAS CLOSE TO 5 FT ON THE ERN OCEAN WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. SITUATION NOT QUITE CERTAIN ENOUGH TO WARRANT ISSUANCE OF AN SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS. NEAR SHORE SCA CONDS MAY BE POSSIBLE ON ALL WATERS SAT AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. OCEAN SEAS WILL BUILD TO SCA CONDITIONS ON MON AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES...WITH WINDS INCREASING OUT OF THE SE-S WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT. SEAS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH TUE. && .FIRE WEATHER...
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DRY WEATHER...MINIMUM RH 20-25 PERCENT...AND WINDS GUSTING TO 25-35 MPH WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED POTENTIAL FOR FIRE GROWTH/SPREAD SAT AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. SEVERAL WIND SHIFTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY...CREATING AN ADDITIONAL HAZARD WITH ANY ONGOING FIRES. INITIALLY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WEST- SOUTHWEST THEN SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...BEFORE RAPIDLY TURNING NORTHWEST AGAIN AROUND 6-7 PM WITH THE APPROACH/PASSAGE OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT. GUSTS MAY BRIEFLY STRENGTHEN AFTER THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED TODAY AFTER FEEDBACK FROM FIRE WEATHER OFFICIALS REPORTING DRY FUEL CONDITIONS.
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&& .HYDROLOGY... RAINFALL OF 2-3 TENTHS OF AN INCH EXPECTED THROUGH LATE DAY TODAY. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL WITH AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE AROUND 1.5 INCHES...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO 2 INCHES POSSIBLE. FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB SITE. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MMD/BC/GOODMAN NEAR TERM...MMD/BC/GOODMAN SHORT TERM...GOODMAN LONG TERM...BC AVIATION...JP MARINE...BC/GOODMAN FIRE WEATHER...MMD HYDROLOGY...BC/GOODMAN

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