Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 160824 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 424 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION TODAY AND DRIFTS NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS MULTIPLE LOW PRESSURE AREAS RIDE A STALLED FRONT TO THE EAST. THE HIGH FINALLY PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK WITH LOW PRESSURE RETURNING FOR MID WEEK.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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A FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT EARLY THIS MORNING AS COLD AIR MOVES IN BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT AND TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW FREEZING. RECORD LOWS ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING. SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW. THE LAST OF THE WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION WAS MOVING OUT OF NEW LONDON COUNTY AND THE TWIN FORKS AT 08Z. RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION THROUGH TODAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE DIMINISHING THROUGH THIS MORNING AND INTO EARLY AFTERNOON AS COLD ADVECTION WEAKENS AND WINDS ALOFT DIMINISH...WITH MIXING TO AROUND 900 MB. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S. NORMAL HIGHS ARE AROUND 60.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
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RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS SURFACE HIGH REMAINS TO THE NORTHEAST AND RIDGES DOWN ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS. THE COLD AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN APPROACH OF FALL BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE AREA. NO RECORDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BROKEN TONIGHT UNLESS TEMPERATURES FALL LOWER THAN FORECAST AS SKIES WILL BE CLEAR AND WINDS WILL INITIALLY BE LIGHT IN THE EVENING. THEN WITH THE HIGH BUILDING TO THE NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTHEAST BRINGING IN COOLER NORTHERN ATLANTIC AIR LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THURSDAYS HIGHS WILL ONLY BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES HIGHER THAN TODAYS HIGHS.
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&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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INITIALLY DRY WEATHER THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH PUSHES NORTH AND EAST WHILE THE AREA REMAINS UNDER BROAD RIDGING. GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT ALONG A STALLED FRONT OFFSHORE THAT COULD BRING LIGHT PCPN INTO THE AREA BY FRIDAY MORNING...THEN SLOWLY SPREADING TO THE NORTH FRI NIGHT INTO SAT. 00Z GFS A BIT MORE PRONOUNCED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW AND THE RESULTING PCPN WITH THE SUGGESTION OF INTERACTION BETWEEN A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH/CLOSED LOW. ALL OTHER MODELS KEEP A DISTINCT SEPARATION BETWEEN THE TWO SO WENT AHEAD AND MAINTAINED THE SLIGHT CHC/CHC POPS FOR NOW WITH UNCERTAINTY ON JUST HOW WIDESPREAD THE PCPN OCCURS. AN APPROACHING FRONT SAT COULD TRIGGER SCT RAIN SHOWERS AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH. THINGS THEN DRY OUT FOR SAT NIGHT-SUNDAY WITH ZONAL FLOW SETTING UP ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH INTO THE NORTHEAST. SOME MODEL DISCREPANCIES IN THE HANDLING OF THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEXT WEEK. 00Z GFS LINGERS THE HIGH OVER THE NORTHEAST THEN BRINGS A WEAK FRONT IN FROM THE WEST WHILE ECMWF AND CMC BOTH DEVELOP A DECENT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF COASTAL FLORIDA AND TRACK TO THE NORTH ALONG A STALLED FRONT. FLOW ALOFT SUGGESTS MORE OF A GFS SOLUTION IN THIS CASE...SO SIDED MORE TO A GFS/WPC BLEND...BRINGING POPS IN MONDAY NIGHT AND KEEPING THEM IN PLACE THROUGH TUESDAY WITH THE FRONT REMAINING IN THE VICINITY AND MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES RIDING THE FLOW ALOFT. COOLER WEATHER IN STORE FOR THE TRI STATE AREA THURS NIGHT/FRI AS THE POSITIONING OF THE HIGH KEEPS A COOLER EASTERLY/NORTHEASTERLY FLOW DESPITE WAA ALOFT. HOWEVER...AS WINDS SHIFT FOR THE WEEKEND...EXPECT TEMPS TO WARM BACK TO NEAR NORMAL. OVERALL...TEMPS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WARM ENOUGH WITH TIMING OF PCPN TO KEEP PCPN IN THE FORM OF RAIN. THURS NIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST NIGHT IN THE EXTENDED...THOUGH CURRENTLY NOT EXPECTING FROST/FREEZE ISSUES IN AREAS CURRENTLY IN THE GROWING SEASON.
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WIND GUSTS HAVE DIMINISHED BELOW GALE FORCE ON ALL THE WATERS AND WILL REMAIN BELOW GALE AS WINDS ALOFT SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. SMALL CRAFT GUSTS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON. THEN SEAS ON THE OCEAN REMAIN AT SMALL CRAFT LEVELS TONIGHT INTO AT LEAST THURSDAY WITH AN EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING AND INCREASING. BRIEF PERIOD OF 25 KT GUSTS ON THE OCEAN WATERS THURS NIGHT...WITH WINDS DIMINISHING HEADING INTO FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS. WINDS REMAIN SUB-SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED ON THE OCEAN DURING THE PERIOD...FINALLY SUBSIDING BY LATE SAT. SEAS THEN EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 5 FT INTO NEXT WEEK.
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&& .HYDROLOGY...
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DRY TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THEN NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION THAT WOULD HAVE HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS IS CURRENTLY FORECASTED THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE NEXT WEEK. NOTE...MINOR FLOODING CONTINUES ALONG THE CONNECTICUT RIVER. ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL WILL LIKELY CAUSE WATER LEVELS TO CONTINUE TO RISE THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE FLOOD LEVELS TO BE REACHED. MONITOR THE LATEST FLOOD WARNINGS FROM NWS TAUNTON MA. NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FROM THURSDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
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&& .CLIMATE...
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RECORD LOWS FOR THIS MORNING APRIL 16: EWR - 26 IN 1943 FORECAST LOW - 29 BDR - 29 IN 1981 FORECAST LOW - 29 NYC - 29 IN 1928 FORECAST LOW - 29 LGA - 31 IN 1943 FORECAST LOW - 29 JFK - 33 IN 1962 FORECAST LOW - 30 ISP - 32 IN 2008 FORECAST LOW - 30
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&& .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR CTZ009>012. NY...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ069>075- 078>081-176>179. NJ...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NJZ004-006- 103>108. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ330- 335-338-340-345. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353- 355.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...SEARS/MET NEAR TERM...MET SHORT TERM...MET LONG TERM...MAS AVIATION...MPS MARINE...SEARS/MET HYDROLOGY...SEARS/MET CLIMATE...

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