Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KOKX 281755 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 155 PM EDT SUN AUG 28 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure along the New England coast gradually works offshore today, while a cold front approaches from the Great Lakes tonight. The front will work slowly across the area on Monday. High pressure follows for Tuesday. Another cold front moves through late Wednesday into Wednesday night with high pressure for the end of the week.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A high amplitude ridge across the East Coast, centered over the Mid Atlantic states, will gradually flatten as a shortwave trough tracks across the upper Great Lakes. The latter of which will send a cold front toward the area tonight. Sunny, dry and warm through the rest of the afternoon. Temps will remain steady in the lower 80s along the south coasts, and rising a bit more to the upper 80s for NYC/NJ metro and north and west of NYC. There is a moderate risk for rip current development into this evening via 2-ft/10-second SE swells, minimal SE-S wind waves. There is a low potential for the risk to become high late this afternoon if 2 ft 15+ second SE swells begin to work into the water from distant Hurricane Gaston. Buoy 44017 S of Montauk is beginning to pick up on these swells, but they are still lower energy than the prevailing swell.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Upper ridge over the mid Atlantic region continues to get suppressed south as shortwave tracks across eastern Canada, just north of the Great Lakes. Associated cold front approaches the Lower Hudson Valley by daybreak Monday, then slowly drops SE across the area. The front is likely to clear the area by early evening. Marginal instability and weak shear along and ahead of the front point to isolated coverage of any showers or thunderstorms that develop. Highs Monday will be a bit warmer due to steeper lapse rates and warm advection ahead of the front. Many locations will top out in the upper 80s with areas in and around NYC getting into the lower 90s. High pressure builds in from the NW Monday night and settles across the area Tuesday with temperatures close to seasonable levels. It will be somewhat humid with dew points in the lower 60s, but not oppressively so. Winds become onshore by afternoon as the high moves offshore. There is the potential for a high risk for rip current development Monday as long period SE swells from distant tropical cyclone Gaston build to 3 to 4 ft. If this occurs, breaking surf in the 3 to 5 ft range could be expected as well. These conditions will likely continue into Tuesday. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... A cold front approaches on Wednesday and passes during the late day/nighttime period. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are forecast during the period with the best overall chance appearing to be during Wednesday night. There is a chance that the cold front is still close enough, coupled with synoptic lift from a jet streak aloft, for a chance of morning showers on Thursday. For now, will go with slight chc pops east of the city Thursday morning. Drying conditions otherwise through Saturday as high pressure builds in behind the front. High temperatures Thursday through Saturday will be fairly close to normal, and dewpoints all 3 days will allow for relatively comfortable conditions. The threat for rough surf and high risk for rip current development could continue mid to late week if SE swells from Gaston continue to affect the waters. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
VFR with high pressure in control. A weak cold front approaches tonight and slowly crosses on Monday. S/SE winds should continue to strengthen to 10 to 15 kt through the late aft/early eve...strongest at metro/coastal terminals with occasional gusts into the teens. Winds diminish and veer to the SW this evening...and then to the w late tonight. Wind expected to waver around 310 magnetic in the morning...but could veer just to the right in the afternoon. .Outlook for 18Z Monday through Friday... .Monday Afternoon...Mainly VFR. Winds may average just to the right of 310 magnetic...with gusts to 15 to 20 kt possible. Low prob of an isolated afternoon shower or tstm. .Tuesday-Wednesday Aft...VFR. .Wednesday Eve-Thursday Morning...Showers or thunderstorms possible with mvfr conds. .Thursday Aft-Friday...VFR.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .MARINE... Ocean seas will continue to slowly build in response to long period swells generated by distant Hurricane Gaston. Hazardous swells of 5 feet or more could arrive as early as Monday night, and potentially linger through the rest of the forecast period. Otherwise, winds should remain below SCA criteria, although they will increase on Wed ahead of an approaching weak cold front. && .HYDROLOGY... No significant widespread precipitation is expected. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DW NEAR TERM...Goodman/DW SHORT TERM...DW LONG TERM...JC/DW AVIATION...NV MARINE...Goodman/DW HYDROLOGY...DW

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.