Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 251704 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 104 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A BERMUDA HIGH REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE HIGH THEN MOVES FARTHER OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC AND WEAKENS LATE WEEK. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THURSDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES ACROSS THE AREA NEXT WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... FORECAST ON TRACK FOR THE AFTERNOON. GENERALLY SUNNY WITH OCNL MID AND HIGH CIRRUS FROM TIME TO TIME. HIGHS WILL TOP OFF IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S ALONG AND WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER AND IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S MOST ELSEWHERE. AREAS ALONG THE COAST WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN THAT DUE TO THE ONSHORE FLOW. THERE IS A MDT RISK FOR RIPS ON THE OCEANFRONT TODAY. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... DRY TNGT WITH SW FLOW CONTINUING. DESPITE THE INCREASE IN LLVL MOISTURE AT THE COASTS...THE WIND SHOULD BE A LIMITING FACTOR FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT. THE SREF HAS LOW PROBS FOR EVEN VSBY BLW 3SM...SO AS A RESULT HAVE NOT INCLUDED ANY FOG IN THE FCST ATTM. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM INTO THE REGION THRU THE PERIOD. THE GFS SUGGESTS SOME CONVECTIVE INITIATION TUE AFTN ACROSS THE WRN THIRD OF THE CWA. HIGHER INSTABILITY WITH SOME INCREASED LLVL MOISTURE...HOWEVER THE SEA BREEZE FLOW SHOULD ARC NWD THRU MOST OF THE AREA STABILIZING THE AREA BY LATE AFTN. THE NAM APPEARS TO HAVE A GOOD DEPICTION OF THIS SHARP CAPE GRADIENT. IN ADDITION...THERE MAY BE A LACK OF A TRIGGER WITH GENERAL WEAK SUBSIDENCE. MAINTAINED THE LOW TSTM CHCS IN THE FCST FOR THE WRN AND INTERIOR AREAS...BUT IF FUTURE MESOSCALE MODEL DATA FOLLOWS THE NAM...POPS ACROSS ALL AREAS E OF THE HUDSON COULD BE TRIMMED OFF. EXPECTING THE INCREASED MOISTURE AFTER THE PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW TO LIMIT TEMPS A BIT MORE AT THE CT AND LI COASTS...SO USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE WHICH SEEMED TO DEPICT THIS. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... SUMMERTIME PATTERN IN PLACE THIS TIME FRAME. UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EAST COAST WILL GIVE WAY TO WEAK TROUGH/SHORTWAVE AS IT TRAVERSES EASTWARD WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. IN TIME...RIDGE WILL REESTABLISH ITSELF LATE IN THE WEEK AS JET RETREATS NORTHWARD. THE JET EVENTUALLY SAGS SOUTH NEXT WEEKEND AS NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH TRACKS ACROSS CANADA...RESULTING IN LOWERING HEIGHTS AND MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. AT THE SURFACE...BERMUDA HIGH REMAINS IN PLACE WITH PERSISTENT SW FLOW ACROSS THE EAST COAST. A WEAK TROUGH APPROACHES THURSDAY...WITH ANOTHER TROUGH/COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO APPROACH LATE SATURDAY OR NEXT SUNDAY. TIMING DIFFERENCES ARE NOTED...WITH OPERATIONAL GFS MUCH QUICKER TRACKING THE FRONT EAST WHEN COMPARED TO OPERATIONAL RUN OF THE ECMWF AND GGEM. OPERATIONAL GFS QUICKER THAN MANY OF IT/S ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AS WELL. LATEST WPC FORECASTS PROG THE FRONT CLOSER TO ECMWF SOLUTION. TEMPS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY WILL REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL PER WPC NUMBERS AND LATEST MEX NUMBERS. TEMPS SETTLE BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL SUNDAY DUE TO CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. AS FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS/TSTMS WED WITH HIGHEST POPS NW OF NYC. POSSIBLE HIGHER COVERAGE OF CONVECTION WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS THE SFC TROUGH/WEAKENING UPPER SHORTWAVE APPROACHES. MAINLY DRY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...EXCEPT POSSIBLE SHOWER/TSTM NW OF NYC. BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS WITH THE FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT AND/OR SUNDAY. WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND RISING DEW POINTS DUE TO THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW...THERE WILL BE THE INCREASING LIKELIHOOD OF STRATUS AND FOG DEVELOPING AT NIGHT INTO EARLY MORNING MID TO LATE IN THE WEEK. MAY BE MORE OF A STRATUS DECK ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND POSSIBLY COASTAL CONNECTICUT WITH THE FLOW MORE SOUTHWESTERLY THAN SOUTH. && .AVIATION /17Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... HIGH PRES REMAINS EAST OF THE AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. S-SW WINDS INCREASE INTO THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS INCREASING TO 20-30KT BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON. WINDS DIMINISH THIS EVENING. NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT... DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE) KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND DIRECTION COULD PREVAIL 170-190 TRUE BEFORE 16Z. FREQUENT GUSTS COULD BE ONLY 27-29KT THIS AFTN/EVE. WINDS AT 750-1000 FT AGL COULD BE NEAR 40KT FROM APPROX 22Z-04Z. KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE SHIFT TO S COULD BE OFF BY AN HOUR. A GUST OR TWO COULD REACH 30KT FROM 20-23Z...BUT NOT PROBABLE. KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: FREQUENT GUSTS MIGHT NOT BEGIN UNTIL 16-17Z. FREQUENT GUSTS MIGHT BE ONLY 20-23KT THIS AFTN/EVE. CHANCE THAT WINDS SHIFT 180-200 TRUE NEAR 01-02Z WITH SEA BREEZE. THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD. KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: FREQUENT GUSTS MIGHT NOT BEGIN UNTIL AROUND 17Z. FREQUENT GUSTS MIGHT BE ONLY 17-20KT THIS AFTN/EVE. CHANCE THAT GUSTS ARE ONLY OCCASIONAL. CHANCE THAT WINDS SHIFT 170-190 TRUE NEAR 20-21Z WITH SEA BREEZE. KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND SHIFT TO S WITH SEA BREEZE TIMING COULD BE OFF BY AN HOUR. FREQUENT GUSTS MIGHT BE ONLY 16-19KT. KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS MIGHT BE ONLY OCCASIONAL THIS AFTN/EVE. A GUST OR TWO UP TO 30 KT POSSIBLE FROM APPROX 21-00Z. WINDS AT 750-1000 FT AGL COULD BE NEAR 40KT FROM APPROX 22Z-04Z. .OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... .TUESDAY-FRIDAY...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN STRATUS AND/OR FOG LATE AT NIGHT/MORNING...OTHERWISE VFR. LOW CHANCE SHRA/TSTM EACH AFTERNOON...BUT MOSTLY NW OF CITY TERMINALS TUE AND WED. COASTAL SEA BREEZES LIKELY EACH AFTERNOON...WITH S-SW WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE. && .MARINE... SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES...WITH SCA CONDS ON THE OCEAN...SOUTH SHORE BAYS...AND NY HARBOR FOR WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT. WINDS MAY FALL BLW 25KT SOONER PARTICULARLY THE BAYS AND WRN OCEAN. SEAS REMAIN CLOSE TO 5 FT ON TUE...SO THE SCA WAS EXTENDED THRU THE DAY ON THE OCEAN. THERE IS A CHC THAT A SCA MAY BE NEEDED ON THE S SHORE BAYS...ESPECIALLY FOR SHINNECOCK...AS THE SLY FLOW RAMPS UP AGAIN LATE IN THE AFTN. A PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH WIND SPEEDS GENERALLY UNDER SMALL CRAFT LEVELS...ALTHOUGH WINDS MAY BE CLOSE TUE NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. NEARSHORE WIND GUSTS DURING THE AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY COULD APPROACH SMALL CRAFT LEVELS AS WELL. ROUGH SEAS CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY DUE TO PERSISTENTLY GUSTY SW FLOW. AS HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS OVER THE WATERS AND A WEAK FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...AND SEAS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE TO BELOW 5 FT THURSDAY. SUB SMALL CRAFT SEAS REMAIN INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS ACROSS THE WATERS. FOG WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY BY MID WEEK AND INTO LATE WEEK...ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT AND INTO THE EARLY MORNING. && .FIRE WEATHER... MIXED DOWN DEWPOINTS FROM H85 THEN BLENDED IN SOME NAMDNG TO ACCOUNT FOR CSTL INFLUENCE FOR TODAY. THIS YIELDS MIN RH GENERALLY IN THE 30S. SOME UPR 20S POSSIBLE NERN NJ AND UP THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH. KBDI IS BLW CRITERIA HOWEVER SO NO RED FLAG PRODUCTS. && .HYDROLOGY... WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAIN IS NOT EXPECTED THRU SUNDAY. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ338. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ345. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMC/PW NEAR TERM...MPS SHORT TERM...JMC LONG TERM...PW AVIATION...JC MARINE...MPS FIRE WEATHER... HYDROLOGY...JMC/PW

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