Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 182110 CCA AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 508 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...THEN MOVES OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN UNTIL ANOTHER FRONT PASSES TUESDAY NIGHT. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... A WEAK COLD FRONT WAS MOVING INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND INTO THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AT MID AFTERNOON AS A SHORT WAVE MOVES EAST OF THE GREAT LAKES. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE EVENING. THERE IS LITTLE MOISTURE AND LIFT WITH THE FRONT AND WAS MARKED BY A LINE OF CUMULUS...AND NO PRECIPITATION. SO WILL BRING THE FRONT THROUGH DRY. HEIGHTS RISE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AS A RIDGE BUILDS TOWARD THE AREA...AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES..INTO QUEBEC. WITH A FEW CLOUDS AROUND AND A NORTHERLY FLOW TONIGHT CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE IDEAL FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING. GUIDANCE WAS SIMILAR FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS AND A BLEND WAS USED. THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENT DEVELOPMENT AT THE ATLANTIC BEACHES THROUGH THIS EVENING. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/... UPPER RIDGE AXIS BUILDS TOWARD THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY MORNING AND OFF THE COAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE FLOW THEN BECOME NEARLY ZONAL UNTIL LATE SATURDAY AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE BEGINS TO MOVE OUT OF THE UPPER MIDWEST. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON THEN CONTINUES TO TRACK OFF SHORE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. A NORTHEAST FLOW OFF THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN...BELOW NORMAL DURING FRIDAY. LEANED TOWARD THE COOLER NAM GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS. MIXING FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE LIMITED TO AROUND 900 MB AS STRONG SUBSIDENCE REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION. THERE MAY BE SOME CLOUDINESS FRIDAY AS SOME MOISTURE DOES GET TRAPPED UNDER A SURFACE INVERSION. WEAK WARM ADVECTION BEGINS TO SET UP LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUES INTO SATURDAY...AND TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE. FOR FRIDAY...THERE WILL BE A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT ATLANTIC OCEAN FACING BEACHES. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... THE CWA WILL BE BETWEEN LOW PRES OVER THE OCEAN AND AN APPROACHING CDFNT SAT NGT INTO SUN. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE AREA DRY. WARM ALOFT BUT SLY FLOW AT THE SFC SHOULD LIMIT MOST PLACES TO THE 70S TO NEAR 80. WITHOUT THIS ONSHORE COMPONENT...FULL MIXING WOULD PRODUCE LOW-MID 80S. THE TIMING OF THE FRONT WILL BE KEY TO PCPN CHCS. THE NAM INDICATES A SLOWER FROPA...WHICH IS GENERALLY A PREFERRED PLAY IN THE EXTENDED. ALL MODELS INDICATE THE PCPN SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS EWD WITH THE FRONT OVERNIGHT. HAVE HEDGED TOWARDS A SLOWER ONSET SUN...BUT MAINTAINED CHCS THRU THE NGT EXPECTING THE SHWRS TO HOLD TOGETHER AT LEAST WITH SCT COVERAGE. HI PRES THEN BUILDS IN WITH FAIR WX MON INTO TUE. THE NEXT CDFNT LATE TUE/TUE NGT. MOISTURE IS LIMITED SO KEPT A DRY FCST. THERE COULD BE A FEW SPRINKLES OUT OF HIGH BASES AROUND 5K FT. MAINLY CLR FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH HIPRES BUILDING IN. THE 1030S HIGH BUILDS OVER THE REGION WED NGT...SO MANUALLY DROPPED TEMPS AS GUIDANCE MAY BE TOO INFLUENCED BY CLIMO. TEMPS OTHERWISE A BLEND OF THE GMOS25/MEX/MEN THRU THE EXTENDED. && .AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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HIGH PRESSURE/VFR THROUGH TAF PERIOD WITH A DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS EVENING. NW FLOW COULD OCCASIONALLY VARY TO SW WITH PARTIAL SEA BREEZE INFLUENCE BUT NW FLOW WILL BE PRIMARILY DOMINANT. WINDS SPEEDS MOSTLY LESS THAN 10 KT. WINDS SHIFT TO N/NE BEHIND COLD FRONT LATE THIS EVENING. GUSTS UP TO 20 KT POSSIBLE AFTER 06Z...ESPECIALLY NYC TERMINALS. NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT... DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE) KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND DIRECTION WILL OCCASIONALLY VARY SIGNIFICANTLY INTO EARLY THIS EVENING BETWEEN NW AND SSW. KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND DIRECTION COULD VARY 30-50 DEGREES FROM FORECAST INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND DIRECTION COULD VARY 30-40 DEGREES FROM FORECAST INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND DIRECTION COULD VARY 30-40 DEGREES LEFT OF FORECAST WIND THIS EVENING. KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND DIRECTION COULD VARY 30-40 DEGREES LEFT OF FORECAST WIND THIS EVENING. KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND DIRECTION COULD VARY 30-40 DEGREES FROM FORECAST INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. .OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... .FRIDAY-SUNDAY...VFR. .SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...CHANCE OF MVFR OR BELOW WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS. .MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...VFR.
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&& .MARINE... A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THIS EVENING AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH. AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTHEAST. SOME GUSTS ON THE OCEAN WATERS WILL BE NEAR SMALL CRAFT LEVELS LATE TONIGHT AND POSSIBLY INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. IN ADDITION SEAS ON THE OCEAN EAST OF FIRE ISLAND INLET MAY BUILD TO AROUND 5 FT BY FRIDAY MORNING. AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST DURING FRIDAY AFTERNOON WIND AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE OCEAN WATERS EAST OF FIRE ISLAND INLET LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS WIND AND SEAS WILL BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. MARGINAL SCA WINDS POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN AND S SHORE BAYS SAT EVE WITH SLY FLOW. SCA WINDS AND SEAS DEVELOP BEHIND A CDFNT SUN NGT INTO MON. THE HARBOR AND WRN SOUND MAY REMAIN JUST BLW CRITERIA. CHC OF SCA WINDS AGAIN BEHIND ANOTHER FRONT TUE NGT INTO WED. && .HYDROLOGY... NO RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. BASIN AVG RAINFALL OF LESS THE 1/4 INCH EXPECTED SUN AFTN AND NGT. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ350- 353. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMC/MET NEAR TERM...MET SHORT TERM...MET LONG TERM...JMC AVIATION...JM/MMD MARINE...JMC/MET HYDROLOGY...JMC/MET

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