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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KOKX 181442
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1042 AM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT SLOWLY PUSHES SOUTH THROUGH THE TRI STATE AREA TODAY
THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. A WARM FRONT MAY PASS THROUGH THE REGION
SUNDAY OR MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH CURRENTLY LIES OVER THE REGION AND THIS
COULD ACT AS A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND TSTMS LATE THIS MORNING. A COLD
FRONT WILL BE ALSO MOVING INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING
AND THERE WILL ADDITIONAL LIFT COURTESY OF A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
AND FROM BEING NEAR THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER LEVEL
JET STREAK.

SPC HIGH RESOLUTION STORM-SCALE ENSEMBLE INDICATES
PROBABILITIES OF GREATER THAN 40 DBZ INCREASING UP TO 80
PERCENT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR DURING THIS TIME.
SLIGHTLY LOWER PROBABILITIES FURTHER EAST BUT STILL GREATER THAN
50 PERCENT. WITH THIS IN MIND...PUSHED UP THE TIMING OF LIKELY
POPS AND ALSO EXTENDED THEM FURTHER EAST BY LATE AFTERNOON.

CAPE VALUES WILL PROBABLY REACH 1000-1500 J/KG...GENERALLY AWAY
FROM THE COAST...BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS INSTABILITY COMBINED
WITH A BULK SHEAR OF 30-40KT...BRINGS A CHANCE FOR A FEW STORMS
TO BECOME STRONG OR SEVERE. HEAVIER SHOWERS/STORMS WILL ALSO NEED
TO WATCHED FOR ANY URBAN OR SMALL STREAM FLOODING WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATERS INCREASING TO 1.4 TO 1.6 INCHES THIS
AFTERNOON.

MAV/NAM MOS BLEND WITH A FEW SLIGHT LOCAL ADJUSTMENTS WAS USED FOR
HIGH TEMPS.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO DRIFT SOUTH...MOVING COMPLETELY OFFSHORE
PROBABLY DURING THE EVENING HOURS. STILL ENOUGH LIFT...CAPE AND
SHEAR FOR STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE TSTMS. RAIN CHANCES THEN
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT WITH THE FRONT OFFSHORE AND HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN BEHIND IT.

LOOKS LIKE THE FRONT SHOULD BE JUST FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE BY DAYBREAK
ON WEDNESDAY TO KEEP SHOWER CHANCES OUT OF THE FORECAST. A TROUGH
AXIS ALOFT AND ACCOMPANYING SHORTWAVE SHIFTS IN DURING THE
AFTERNOON...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE MOISTURE WILL BE DEEP ENOUGH ONLY FOR
SOME CLOUD BUILDUP IN SPOTS. IT SHOULD FEEL LESS MUGGY WITH DEW
POINTS IN THE 50S AND HIGHS MOSTLY 75-80.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH MEAN TROUGHING CONTINUING OVER THE
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
GRADUALLY BUILDING INTO THE REGION AND IN CONTROL THROUGH SATURDAY.
THIS WILL RESULT IN FAIR AND SEASONABLE WARM CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. WEAK PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH COULD SET OFF ISOLATED PULSE SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY FRI AND
SAT AFT/EVE...PARTICULARLY OFF THE NW HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

HEIGHTS APPEAR TO BUILD THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH A
TREND TOWARDS MORE SUMMER LIKE WEATHER. THIS WOULD ALSO BRING
POTENTIAL FOR MCS ACTIVITY AS A WARM FRONT WORKS INTO THE VICINITY
OF THE REGION AND THE AREA LIES ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE
WESTERLIES.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN OVER THE TRI-STATE THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON...THEN PUSH TO THE SOUTH BY EARLY THIS EVENING. A
COASTAL LOW MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE THIS
EVENING...THEN PASSES SE OF LONG ISLAND OVERNIGHT.

VFR. CONTINUING WITH THE TEMPO FOR -TSRA THIS AFTERNOON...SPECIFYING
A 4 HOUR WINDOW WHERE IT APPEARS MOST LIKELY THERE WILL BE
CONVECTION AT THIS TIME. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW
ORGANIZED/WIDESPREAD THUNDER WILL BE...SO START TIME IS SOMEWHAT
UNCERTAIN. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THERE WERE A FEW CELLS THAT
DEVELOPED OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN CONVECTIVE BAND. HAVE THE POTENTIAL
FOR STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS IF THEY FORM...SO HAVE GUSTS UP
TO 40KT IN THE TEMPO.

STORMS SHOULD BE GONE BY AROUND 23-03Z FROM W TO E...THEN RESIDUAL
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD LEAVE MVFR/POSSIBLY IFR CEILINGS/FOG
THIS EVENING. CONFIDENCE IN IFR IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH...EXCEPT AT
KISP AND KGON TO REFLECT IN TAFS AT THIS TIME.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH LATE THIS
MORNING TO AROUND MIDDAY AS SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT TAKES PLACE. THE
EXCEPTION IS KLGA WHICH CURRENTLY HAS A SOUND BREEZE. WIND SHOULD
SWITCH TO SOUTH AROUND 18Z AS THE SEA BREEZE MOVES THROUGH. AT ALL
THE TERMINALS THE WIND WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN JUST
AHEAD OF THE CONVECTION AT ALL EXCEPT KGON/KISP/KJFK...WHERE THE
WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE POST CONVECTION. AFTER MIDNIGHT
WINDS BECOME NNE- NE AT 5-10KT...THEN INCREASE LATE OVERNIGHT TO
AROUND 10KT WITH GUSTS 15-20KT AT ALL BUT KSWF.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CONFIDENCE ON START/END TIME OF ANY -TSRA.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CONFIDENCE IN EXACT END TIME OF NE
WINDS...COULD BE OFF +/- 1-2 HOURS. LOW CONFIDENCE ON START/END TIME
OF ANY -TSRA.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CONFIDENCE ON START/END TIME OF ANY -TSRA.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CONFIDENCE ON START/END TIME OF ANY -TSRA.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CONFIDENCE ON START/END TIME OF ANY -TSRA.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CONFIDENCE ON START/END TIME OF ANY -TSRA.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.WEDNESDAY MORNING...VFR. NE WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE.
.WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON-SATURDAY...VFR.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ON ALL WATERS WITH WINDS AT 10 KT OR LESS
TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS PICK UP ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD FRONT. WINDS ON THE OCEAN COULD
GUST TO JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA...BUT THIS WOULD
BE FOR ONLY A RELATIVELY SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. WINDS SHOULD
SUBSIDE A LITTLE BY THE END OF THE DAY.

MAINLY SUB SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE LATE WEEK INTO
SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. MARGINAL SCA OCEAN SEAS MAY
BE POSSIBLE BY LATE WEEK WITH A PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW...BUT
LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A HALF TO THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF
BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL TODAY INTO TONIGHT. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH CONVECTION. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ANY STRONGER CONVECTION. THIS COULD CAUSE MINOR
FLOODING OF URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS LOW DURING
THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/NV
NEAR TERM...DS
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...NV
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...JC/NV
HYDROLOGY...JC/NV