Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 170814 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 414 AM EDT Sun Mar 17 2024 .SYNOPSIS...
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A cold front moves across the region today as the associated low tracks through southern Canada. The low moves slowly eastward through Monday and may bring another weak cold front across the area Monday. Weak high pressure moves in for Tuesday. Low pressure brings a cold front through the area on Wednesday. High pressure then briefly moves in for Thursday with another frontal system possible for Friday and into the weekend.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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A pre frontal trough was moving through central upstate New York and central Pennsylvania while a cold front was moving into western New York and western Pennsylvania. A few showers were accompanying the trough. And both the trough and cold front moves through the area this morning into this afternoon. With near zonal flow much of the energy with the upper trough will pass to the north, with the higher probabilities for precipitation across the interior. The latest CAMs handle the timing and areal extent of the precipitation and were used. Once initial cold front passes through another cold front, or surface trough will be slowly approaching as the associated surface lows tracks slowly eastward through southern Canada. And with cyclonic flow remaining a few instability showers will be possible across the lower Hudson Valley and into portions of northeastern New Jersey this afternoon and possibly into the early evening. Again, the CAMs have been showing this and have maintained slight chance probabilities. However, with little moisture and drying lower levels, little precipitation may reach the ground. Temperatures will remain above normal today, and leaned toward the MOS guidance, although the NBM was partially used.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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Dry weather is expected tonight through Tuesday. Another weak cold front, or surface trough does move through the region Monday, however, there is very little moisture and there will be a drying westerly flow. There may be a few sprinkles inland. Otherwise more seasonable temperatures will be across the region tonight through Tuesday.
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&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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A large upper level trough over the Northeast remains in place midweek with cooler temperatures for the area. Embedded energy in the trough approaches from the northwest on Wednesday brining with it an associated surface low pressure system. This low passes to our north, dragging a cold front through the area during the day on Wednesday. This may bring some showers to the northern half of the CWA, though a lack of moisture will prevent there being widespread precipitation. The cold front moves through by Wednesday night with high pressure attempting to build in from the west. As the low to the east pulls away and the high pressure approaching from the west, a tightening pressure gradient will allow for increasingly breezy northwest winds to advect cooler air into the area for Thursday. Heights rise a bit as the mid-level flow become more zonal and high pressure moves over the area. Models then differ as to the handling of the potential next system where the GFS and CMC both produce a fairly strong coastal low for late Friday and Saturday. The ECMWF has a stronger high pressure over the area for longer and keeps the area fairly dry and quiet through the weekend. For now, kept the chance of showers in the extended forecast to indicate the uncertainty in the eventual development of this system. Temperatures for the extended period will be largely at or below average. Temperatures in the upper 40s to near 50s on Wednesday will drop into the low to middle 40s for Thursday through Saturday.
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&& .AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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A cold front approaches from the northwest overnight and moves across the region today. The cold front will then continue to move east and farther away from the region tonight. Mainly VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. Scattered rain showers and potential MVFR conditions are possible early this morning, mainly in the 10-14Z timeframe. General SW flow 5-10 kt flow picks up overnight to near 10-15 kt with gusts near 20 kt by early morning. Then, winds will become more westerly behind the cold front after 14-16Z with winds further increasing to 15-20 kt in the afternoon. Gusts are expected near 20 kt for early morning, and then 25 to 30 kt for late morning into afternoon. ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... Start and end time of gusts could be 1-3 hours off from forecast. OUTLOOK FOR 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... Sunday Late Night: VFR. Monday: VFR. W winds 10-15G20kt, becoming WNW in the evening Tuesday: VFR. WNW winds 15G20-25kt. Wednesday: Mainly VFR. Slight chance of rain inland, possibly mixed with snow. W winds 10-15G20kt. Thursday: VFR. WNW winds 10-15G20-25kt. Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
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&& .MARINE...
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No changes were made to the SCAs that are in effect on the ocean waters today into this evening. After the end of the advisories winds and seas will remain below small craft levels through Monday night. Then with a stronger pressure gradient force developing Tuesday, as high pressure builds to the west, wind gusts may reach SCA levels across all the forecast waters, and ocean seas may be marginally 5 feet. Near Small Craft conditions possible on the ocean Wednesday night but gradual subsiding in the wind and waves should allow for sub-SCA conditions on all waters by Wednesday morning. A tightening pressure gradient by Wednesday afternoon and evening will allow for widespread small craft conditions on all waters by Wednesday evening. SCA conditions likely persist through the day on Thursday before gradually subsiding Thursday night.
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&& .FIRE WEATHER...
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Only a few hundredths of an inch of wetting rain is expected today, and no significant wetting rain has occurred since March 9/10. And dry conditions are expected through Thursday. Minimum relative humidity this afternoon will be around 35 percent with a southwest to west wind of 15 to 20 mph, gusting to around 25 mph. Drier conditions are expected Monday with the minimum relative humidity 25 to 30 percent, with a west wind 10 to 15 mph, and gusts 15 to 20 mph. Tuesday and Thursday minimum relative humidity will again range from 25 to 30 percent, with Wednesday`s 35 to 45 percent. Gusty westerly winds are expected during the day Tuesday through Thursday. The highest winds and gusts are expected Thursday with winds 15 to 20 mph and gusts 25 to 30 mph.
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&& .HYDROLOGY...
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No hydrologic impacts are expected today through the end of the week.
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&& .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for ANZ345. Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for ANZ350- 353. Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ355. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MET/MW NEAR TERM...MET SHORT TERM...MET LONG TERM...MW AVIATION...MW MARINE...MET/MW FIRE WEATHER...MET HYDROLOGY...MET/MW

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