Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 270744 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 344 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGIONS WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. A WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT FOR THE MOST PART THE AREA WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LARGE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH TODAY WITH JUST AN INCREASE IN STRATO CU THIS AFTN. AT THE SFC...A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRES OVER THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD TOWARDS THE AREA. HIGHS WILL BE SEASONABLE RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. A SEABREEZE IS POSSIBLE AT THE COAST ALTHOUGH THE RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RIP CURRENTS IS CURRENTLY FORECASTED AS LOW...IT MAY BECOME MODERATE IN THE AFTERNOON IF WINDS BACK MORE THAN 230 DEGREES AND ARE SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN FORECAST. DAY SHIFT WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS AND MAY HAVE TO UPDATE THE FORECAST. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/... THE H5 FLOW FLATTENS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD AT THE SFC. STRONG SUBSIDENCE WILL KEEP SKIES VIRTUALLY CLOUD FREE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH PERHAPS JUST SOME SCT HIGH CLOUDS AND MAYBE A FEW CU. DRY WEATHER CONTINUES TEMPS REMAINING NEAR NORMAL. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDS TONIGHT WILL ALLOW LOWS TO DROP INTO THE 50S IN RURAL LOCATIONS AND LOW TO MID 60S ELSEWHERE. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO TODAY. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A UNSEASONABLY WARM...DRY PERIOD WILL BE ON TAP AS THE SUB TROP RIDGE EXPANDS WESTWARD ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD THIS WEEKEND... EVENTUALLY LINKING UP WITH A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER THE MID SECTION OF THE COUNTRY EARLY NEXT WEEK. 500 MB HEIGHTS WILL LIKELY GET UP 590 DM. THIS IS ON THE ORDER OF 1 TO 2 SD ABOVE NORMAL. TEMPERATURES DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S AT THE COAST...AND NEAR 90 INLAND. LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S INLAND AND UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ALONG THE COAST. HUMIDITY WILL BE ON THE INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. && .AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE NORTHEAST. VFR. SCT-BKN 5-6KFT CU THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT NW WINDS BACK TO THE W/WSW AND MAY BECOME GUSTY IN THE AFTERNOON. SW FLOW LIKELY AT KGON IN AFTERNOON. SOUTH SEABREEZE NOT EXPECTED FOR COASTAL TERMINALS...BUT SW/SSW SEABREEZE POSSIBLE AT KJFK IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH LESSER POTENTIAL AT KBDR/KISP. ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT... DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE) KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: NW WINDS BACK TO THE W-SW...BETWEEN 16 AND 18Z. LOW PROB OF SW/SSW SEABREEZE BETWEEN 18Z AND 22Z. KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: NW WINDS BACK TO THE W-NW...AROUND 300-320 MAGNETIC...BETWEEN 16 AND 18Z. EXPECTATION IS WINDS TO AVERAGE JUST TO THE NORTH OF 31O MAGNETIC. KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NW WINDS BACK TO THE W-NW...AROUND 290-310 MAGNETIC...BETWEEN 16 AND 18Z. THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD. KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NW WINDS BACK TO THE W-NW...AROUND 290-310 MAGNETIC...BETWEEN 16 AND 18Z. KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CHANCE OF SW/SSW SEABREEZE BETWEEN 18Z AND 23Z. .OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY... .THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...VFR. AFTERNOON SEABREEZES LIKELY AT COASTAL TERMINALS. LOW PROB OF ISOLATED AFT/EVE SHRA/TSRA SUN AND MON FOR WESTERN TERMINALS. && .MARINE... SUB-SCA CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY REMAINS IN CONTROL ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. && .HYDROLOGY... NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$

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