Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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FXUS61 KOKX 170814
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
414 AM EDT Sun Mar 17 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front moves across the region today as the associated
low tracks through southern Canada. The low moves slowly
eastward through Monday and may bring another weak cold front
across the area Monday. Weak high pressure moves in for
Tuesday. Low pressure brings a cold front through the area on
Wednesday. High pressure then briefly moves in for Thursday with
another frontal system possible for Friday and into the
weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A pre frontal trough was moving through central upstate New York
and central Pennsylvania while a cold front was moving into
western New York and western Pennsylvania. A few showers were
accompanying the trough. And both the trough and cold front
moves through the area this morning into this afternoon. With
near zonal flow much of the energy with the upper trough will
pass to the north, with the higher probabilities for
precipitation across the interior. The latest CAMs handle the
timing and areal extent of the precipitation and were used.

Once initial cold front passes through another cold front, or
surface trough will be slowly approaching as the associated
surface lows tracks slowly eastward through southern Canada. And
with cyclonic flow remaining a few instability showers will be
possible across the lower Hudson Valley and into portions of
northeastern New Jersey this afternoon and possibly into the
early evening. Again, the CAMs have been showing this and have
maintained slight chance probabilities. However, with little
moisture and drying lower levels, little precipitation may
reach the ground.

Temperatures will remain above normal today, and leaned toward
the MOS guidance, although the NBM was partially used.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Dry weather is expected tonight through Tuesday. Another weak
cold front, or surface trough does move through the region
Monday, however, there is very little moisture and there will be
a drying westerly flow. There may be a few sprinkles inland.
Otherwise more seasonable temperatures will be across the region
tonight through Tuesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A large upper level trough over the Northeast remains in place
midweek with cooler temperatures for the area. Embedded energy
in the trough approaches from the northwest on Wednesday brining
with it an associated surface low pressure system. This low
passes to our north, dragging a cold front through the area
during the day on Wednesday. This may bring some showers to the
northern half of the CWA, though a lack of moisture will prevent
there being widespread precipitation.

The cold front moves through by Wednesday night with high
pressure attempting to build in from the west. As the low to the
east pulls away and the high pressure approaching from the
west, a tightening pressure gradient will allow for increasingly
breezy northwest winds to advect cooler air into the area for
Thursday.

Heights rise a bit as the mid-level flow become more zonal and
high pressure moves over the area. Models then differ as to the
handling of the potential next system where the GFS and CMC both
produce a fairly strong coastal low for late Friday and
Saturday. The ECMWF has a stronger high pressure over the area
for longer and keeps the area fairly dry and quiet through the
weekend. For now, kept the chance of showers in the extended
forecast to indicate the uncertainty in the eventual development
of this system.

Temperatures for the extended period will be largely at or
below average. Temperatures in the upper 40s to near 50s on
Wednesday will drop into the low to middle 40s for Thursday
through Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A cold front approaches from the northwest overnight and moves
across the region today. The cold front will then continue to
move east and farther away from the region tonight.

Mainly VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period.
Scattered rain showers and potential MVFR conditions are possible
early this morning, mainly in the 10-14Z timeframe.

General SW flow 5-10 kt flow picks up overnight to near 10-15
kt with gusts near 20 kt by early morning. Then, winds will
become more westerly behind the cold front after 14-16Z with
winds further increasing to 15-20 kt in the afternoon. Gusts are
expected near 20 kt for early morning, and then 25 to 30 kt for
late morning into afternoon.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Start and end time of gusts could be 1-3 hours off from forecast.

OUTLOOK FOR 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

Sunday Late Night: VFR.

Monday: VFR. W winds 10-15G20kt, becoming WNW in the evening

Tuesday: VFR. WNW winds 15G20-25kt.

Wednesday: Mainly VFR. Slight chance of rain inland, possibly mixed
with snow. W winds 10-15G20kt.

Thursday: VFR. WNW winds 10-15G20-25kt.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
No changes were made to the SCAs that are in effect on the
ocean waters today into this evening. After the end of the
advisories winds and seas will remain below small craft levels
through Monday night. Then with a stronger pressure gradient
force developing Tuesday, as high pressure builds to the west,
wind gusts may reach SCA levels across all the forecast waters,
and ocean seas may be marginally 5 feet.

Near Small Craft conditions possible on the ocean Wednesday
night but gradual subsiding in the wind and waves should allow
for sub-SCA conditions on all waters by Wednesday morning. A
tightening pressure gradient by Wednesday afternoon and evening
will allow for widespread small craft conditions on all waters
by Wednesday evening. SCA conditions likely persist through the
day on Thursday before gradually subsiding Thursday night.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Only a few hundredths of an inch of wetting rain is expected
today, and no significant wetting rain has occurred since March
9/10. And dry conditions are expected through Thursday.

Minimum relative humidity this afternoon will be around 35 percent
with a southwest to west wind of 15 to 20 mph, gusting to around
25 mph. Drier conditions are expected Monday with the minimum
relative humidity 25 to 30 percent, with a west wind 10 to 15
mph, and gusts 15 to 20 mph.

Tuesday and Thursday minimum relative humidity will again range
from 25 to 30 percent, with Wednesday`s 35 to 45 percent. Gusty
westerly winds are expected during the day Tuesday through
Thursday. The highest winds and gusts are expected Thursday with
winds 15 to 20 mph and gusts 25 to 30 mph.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts are expected today through the end of the
week.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for ANZ345.
     Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for ANZ350-
     353.
     Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MET/MW
NEAR TERM...MET
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...MW
MARINE...MET/MW
FIRE WEATHER...MET
HYDROLOGY...MET/MW


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