Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 211019 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 619 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TOD DAY AND TONIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM EASTERN CANADA. THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY...AND REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... FCST UPDATED TO REMOVE FOG THIS MRNG. OTHERWISE...SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL SLOWLY MOVE TOWARD THE REGION WHILE AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA. BRIEF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED WITH SOME OF THESE SHOWERS. BULK OF THE ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN OVER NE NJ...LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND INTO NYC. THESE AREAS MAY ALSO SEE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM AS MUCAP ACROSS THESE LOCATIONS WILL BE HIGHEST...A FEW HUNDRED TO JUST OVER 1000 J/KG. WITH A LACK OF A SIGNIFICANT LIFTING MECHANISM...NOT LOOKING FOR ANYTHING STRONG OR SEVERE. CLOUD COVER WILL HELP TO KEEP TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THE MOST PART. GENERALLY HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/... THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS CONTINUES TONIGHT AS THE CLOSED UPPER LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH MOVES INTO NEW ENGLAND AND A SHORTWAVE MOVES AROUND ITS BASE. WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS DECREASES...AND THUS JUST PLAIN SHOWERS ARE IN THE FORECAST. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OFF THE OCEAN EARLY TONIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR A MOIST AIRMASS. DEWPOINTS WILL RISE INTO THE MIDDLE 60S. WINDS SHIFT MORE TO THE NORTHEAST LATE TONIGHT...AND DEWPOINTS WILL COME BACK DOWN TO THE LOWER 60S BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY. THIS NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL THEN MEAN AN EVEN COOLER DAY ON FRIDAY AS COMPARED TO THURSDAY...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S. SOME UPPER 70S FOR THE NYC METRO REGION. HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTHEAST WILL NOSE INTO THE AREA FRIDAY...ALLOWING THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS TO END FROM EAST TO WEST ON FRIDAY. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... SOLID MODEL CONSENSUS THRU TUE. HIPRES BUILDS INTO THE AREA THEN STRENGTHENS AS THE UPR RIDGE TRANSLATES EWD. ON WED...THE ECMWF BRINGS A CDFNT CLOSE...BUT THE GFS KEEPS THE FEATURE OFF THE LOCAL MAP. HAVE SIDED WITH THE SLOWER GFS SOLN AS THIS FITS A FAST MODEL BIAS AT THIS TIME RANGE. A MARITIME POLAR AIRMASS IS LOCKED IN FRI NGT INTO THE FIRST PART OF SAT. VIRTUALLY NO LIFT IN THE MOIST LAYER...SO HAVE ONLY FCST SPRINKLES. THE CLOUDS BEGIN TO CLR IN THE AFTN FROM NE TO SW AS STRONG SUBSIDENCE KICKS IN. DRY WITH LGT WINDS SUN-WED COURTESY OF THE HIGH. SOME CIRRUS AT TIMES. TEMPS BLW NORMAL SAT...THEN A GRADUAL WARMING TREND TAKES PLACE SUN-TUE AS HEIGHTS INCREASE. && .AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF POSSIBLE IFR CONDITIONS IN FOG AT KGON...GENERALLY EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. THERE WILL BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS...AND ANY SHOWER COULD REDUCE CEILINGS OR VSBYS TO MVFR BRIEFLY. BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS NYC METRO AND NORTH AND WEST. POSSIBLE HIGHER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH. BEST CHANCE NYC METRO AND NORTH AND WEST. LIGHT WINDS BECOME SOUTHEAST OR SOUTH 5 TO 10 KTS DURING THE DAYTIME. NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT... DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE) KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST LATER THIS MORNING. KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: A LIGHT EAST TO NORTHEAST WIND IS EXPECTED TO BECOME SOUTHEAST BEFORE NOON. TIMING COULD BE OFF AN HOUR OR TWO. KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: LIGHT WINDS BECOME SOUTHEAST LATE THIS MORNING...JUST TO THE RIGHT OF 130 MAGNETIC. THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD. KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. .OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRI THROUGH MON... .TONIGHT...VFR...ALTHOUGH MVFR CEILINGS/VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE IN SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS. .FRI-MON...VFR. && .MARINE... THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES TOWARD THE AREA. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUND AND HARBOR. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA...BUT MAY APPROACH SCA CRITERIA BRIEFLY IN ANY THUNDERSTORM. THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...WITH CHANCES DIMINISHING THROUGHOUT THE DAY FRIDAY. WINDS AND WAVES CONTINUE TO REMAIN BELOW SCA FOR TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. WINDS WILL APPROACH SCA LVLS FRI NGT...THEN DIMINISH DURING THE DAY ON SAT. SEAS ON THE OCEAN WILL BUILD TO AROUND 4 FT LATE FRI NGT...THEN LINGER THRU MOST OF SAT BEFORE SUBSIDING. A SCA MAY BE NEEDED ESPECIALLY ON THE OCEAN FRI NGT AND SAT. OTHERWISE...WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE BLW SCA LVLS SUN-AT LEAST TUE. && .HYDROLOGY... A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND INTERIOR NE NJ AND INTO NYC. ANY STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...BUT BASIN AVERAGED TOTALS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN LIGHT...AS ANY THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ISOLATED. TRACE AMOUNTS OF PCPN ARE POSSIBLE FRI NGT INTO SAT. IT WILL THEN REMAIN DRY THRU THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMC/JP NEAR TERM...JMC/JP SHORT TERM...JP LONG TERM...JMC AVIATION...PW MARINE...JMC/JP HYDROLOGY...JMC/JP

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