Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 280931 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 431 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT...BEFORE MOVING OFF THE COAST SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THEN ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM IMPACTS THE AREA FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS ON TAP FOR TODAY AND THROUGH TONIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA. THERE COULD BE SOME MID- HIGH CLOUDS FILTERING IN DURING THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...MAX TEMPERATURES TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW TO MID 20S...WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE INTERIOR VALLEYS AND THE PINE BARRENS OF LONG ISLAND AND MID TO UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE CITY AND IMMEDIATE SURROUNDING AREAS. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO MOVE OFF THE COAST ON SUNDAY. CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH SNOW DEVELOPING FROM WEST TO EAST. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SPEED UP THE PROGRESSION OF THIS SYSTEM...WITH THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST TO BEGIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY EVENING AND WRAPPING UP BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. PRECIPITATION SHOULD START OUT AS SNOW...WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN...MAINLY ACROSS LI AND NY METRO AFTER MIDNIGHT. RIGHT NOW...LOOKING FOR 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOWFALL ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND CT...WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES AND A LIGHT ICE ACCRETION TO THE SOUTH. CONDITIONS DRY OUT MONDAY MORNING WITH A GUSTY NW FLOW AND ANOTHER SHOT OF UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM TO BRING OVERRUNNING PCPN TO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS TIME AROUND WARMER HEIGHTS ALOFT AND SW FLOW WILL RESULT IN A QUICK TRANSITION OVER TO RAIN FROM SOUTH THE NORTH. WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCES OF PCPN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE SYSTEM. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF A TRANSITION BACK TO WINTRY PCPN WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH PCPN LINGERING INTO THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY...WITH COLDER AND DRY CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES DROPPING WELL BELOW NORMAL...ESPECIALLY THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. && .AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... HI PRES OVER THE AREA THRU TNGT. VFR THRU THE TAF PERIOD. DECREASING NW FLOW TODAY...BACKING TO THE WNW IN THE AFTN. WINDS NEARLY CALM TNGT. .OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... .LATE TONIGHT-SUN MRNG...VFR. .SUN AFTN-EARLY MON MRNG...MVFR OR LOWER IN -SN CHANGING TO A WINTRY MIX COAST AND -SN INLAND SUN NIGHT. SE SFC WND G15-20KT POSSIBLE SUN AFTN. .MON-TUE MRNG...VFR. NW WINDS G15-25KT MON AFTN/EVE. .TUE AFTN-WED...IFR POSSIBLE IN -SN CHANGING TO A WINTRY MIX TUE NGT. RA LATE TUE NGT/WED MRNG. BECOMING VFR LATE WED. LLWS POSSIBLE TUE NGT-WED. && .MARINE... ASIDE FROM LINGERING SWELL AROUND 4.5FT ON THE OCEAN EARLY THIS MRNG...HI PRES WILL KEEP COND BLW SCA LVLS TIL MON...WHEN A FRONTAL SYS WILL BRING INCREASING WINDS AND WAVES ACROSS ALL OF THE WATERS. THE WINDS AND SEAS WILL SUBSIDE ON TUE...THEN RAMP UP AGAIN TUE NGT AND WED TO SCA LVLS AS ANOTHER FRONTAL COMPLEX APPROACHES. THE FRONT MAY STALL INVOF THE WATERS THU...KEEPING SCA COND LOCKED IN. && .HYDROLOGY... THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW EVENT LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING. THIS EVENT WILL HAVE NO IMMEDIATE IMPACT ON THE HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA. ICE WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ON LOCAL AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS AS TEMPERATURES REMAIN WELL BELOW AVERAGE. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$

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