Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
FXUS61 KOKX 171403
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
903 AM EST Fri Feb 17 2017
High pressure approaches from the west today and moves across
the area tonight. Low pressure will then track through southern
Ontario and Quebec this weekend, with a couple of frontal
passages Saturday night and late Sunday. High pressure will
builds in for early to mid next week.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Forecast on track this morning with no significant changes made
to the forecast. Otherwise, sunny and dry conditions are
expected today as weakening high pressure approaches. High
temperatures today will climb into the upper 30s to near 40.
This will be right around or a degree or two below normal for
this time of year. A MAV/MET/ECS blend was in good agreement and
used for temperatures today.
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
A warm front approaches tonight and moves across the area
Saturday morning. High and mid level clouds increase through the
night. Cloud cover Saturday morning associated with the frontal
passage should give way to afternoon sunshine, allowing temps
for NE NJ/NYC metro to reach the upper 50s, but holding in the
upper 40s and lower 50s for the coast. Conditions, even with the
frontal passage, are expected to remain dry.
Tonight`s lows fall into the 20s and 30s. Temperatures should be
a few degrees above normal tonight, and well above normal on
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Near zonal flow will give way to brief NE troughing early next
week, before transitioning to sharp ridging toward mid week. In
terms of sensible weather this is translating into what looks
like a rather quiet and mild period of weather.
A northern stream shortwave and associated low pressure system
will track across Southern Ontario/Quebec this weekend, with a
weak cold front passing through the region Saturday Night. There
wont be much change in the airmass behind this front, and we
should see another day of above normal temperatures on Sunday.
Meanwhile, a cutoff low from the SW will shear NE across the
CONUS, but should remain separate from northern stream flow and
keep precip south of the region.
Models coming into agreement with another northern stream
shortwave amplifying and digging through the NE US Sunday
night into Monday. This should have a secondary cold front come
through the region late Sunday, with a brief shot of CAA and a
return to more seasonable temps Monday and Tuesday. Once again
this frontal passage appears to be dry.
Thereafter, good model agreement on deep layered ridging
building back into the region midweek. No signals for organized
precip, with once again a moderation in temps to above
seasonable norms in return flow.
.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --High pressure ridge shifts in today.
VFR. NW winds diminishing this afternoon. Gusts occurring mostly
13/14z thru 19/20z. Winds prevailing south of 310 magnetic.
...NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support...
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
KJFK TAF Comments: No unscheduled AMD expected.
KLGA TAF Comments: No unscheduled AMD expected.
KEWR TAF Comments: No unscheduled AMD expected.
The afternoon KEWR haze potential forecast is GREEN, which
implies slant range visibility P6SM outside of cloud.
KTEB TAF Comments: No unscheduled AMD expected.
KHPN TAF Comments: No unscheduled AMD.
KISP TAF Comments: No unscheduled AMD expected.
.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
VFR. NW winds G15-25KT possible Sunday-Monday.
-- End Changed Discussion --
SCA continues on all waters except NY Harbor, the Western Sound, and
the South Shore Bays. There could still be a couple of gusts to 25
KT for the pre-dawn hours, but not enough to warrant the
continuation of the advisory here. SCA otherwise remains unchanged
with the Eastern Sound and Bays going through noon, and the ocean
waters through the afternoon. There could still however be gusts to
25 KT lingering into the afternoon in the vicinity of the Race.
Sub-SCA condition then prevail tonight through tomorrow with a high
pressure ridge and weak pressure gradient shifting through. Winds
then pick up again Saturday night into Sunday with the approach and
passage of a cold front, but probably with winds and seas remaining
below advisory criteria. A stronger cold front then follows on
Sunday night, with marginal SCA conds possible primarily on the
ocean waters late at night into Monday. Diminishing winds and seas
follow Monday night and Tuesday with another high pressure ridge
shifting into the region.
No hydrologic impacts are anticipated through the next 7 days as
any snow melt will be gradual.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for ANZ350-
Small Craft Advisory until noon EST today for ANZ330-340.