Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 290513 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 113 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DIRECTLY OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY. THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND THEN MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS ON WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... SKIES HAVE CLEARED AND GUSTS HAVE SUBSIDED AS EXPECTED. A NLY FLOW WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT...BUT A FEW KTS OF WIND OVERNIGHT AT ALL BUT SHELTERED AND LOCATIONS WELL INLAND WILL KEEP RADIATIONAL COOLING TO A MINIMUM. ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED TO HOURLY T/TD AND SKY. LOWS ARE STILL FORECAST TO BE AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL LEVELS...GENERALLY IN THE 50S...EXCEPT LOWER 60S IN NYC AND UPPER 40S IN ORANGE COUNTY. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/... 1020S HI RIGHT OVER THE CWA. LGT WINDS AND DRY WX. WEAK RETURN FLOW FRI NGT COULD BRING IN ENOUGH LLVL MOISTURE FOR SOME PATCHY FOG. TIME-HEIGHTS SHOW FAIRLY DEEP MOISTENING HOWEVER...UP TO AROUND H9...SO THIS COULD BE A LIMITING FACTOR WITH SOME STRATUS FLOATING AROUND. HAVE HELD OFF ON INCLUDING FOG IN THE FCST ATTM AS A RESULT. THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENT DEVELOPMENT DURING THE DAY FRIDAY ALONG THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FACING BEACHES. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION SLIDING EAST DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. ON SUNDAY...A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST WITH SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE REGION DURING THE THE AFTERNOON. RIDGING ALOFT WEAKENS SLIGHTLY AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENERGY MOVES ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION...FINALLY MOVING THROUGH THE AREA LATE MONDAY OR TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY WITH A MORE ZONAL FLOW OVER THE REGION. WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE REGION SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...EXPECT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE BEST CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. EXPECT TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY TO REMAIN AT OR JUST BELOW NORMAL...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL RISE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL. TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. ALSO EXPECT MUGGY CONDITIONS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS DEW POINTS RISE INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 60S. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES BUILDS IN THROUGH TODAY WITH VFR EXPECTED. N-NW FLOW...RIGHT OF 310 DEGREES MAGNETIC...IS GENERALLY SUBSIDING. WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW FOR LIGHT N-NNE WINDS AFTER SUNRISE EVENTUALLY BECOMING SE WITH SEA BREEZES AT ALL COASTAL TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10KT...EXCEPT AT KJFK WHERE WINDS COULD BE A BIT HIGHER. WINDS BEGIN TO SUBSIDE AFTER SUNSET. .OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SAT THROUGH TUE... .FRI NIGHT-SAT...VFR. .SUN-TUE...MAINLY VFR. POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS WITH POTENTIAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUN AFTERNOON THROUGH TUE. && .MARINE... SWELL STILL EXPECTED TO DECREASE OVERNIGHT...PARTICULARLY AFT MIDNIGHT. THE SCA FOR SEAS ON THE OCEAN REMAINS IN EFFECT TIL FRI MRNG. OTHERWISE...NW WINDS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 2O KT THRU TNGT. HIPRES BUILDS OVER THE WATERS FRI SO LGT WINDS WITH SEAS CONTINUING TO SUBSIDE. WINDS SHOULD THEN REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. SEAS MAY BUILD TO SCA LEVELS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN OCEAN WATERS. SEAS EXPECTED TO FALL BACK BELOW SCA LEVELS MONDAY MORNING. && .HYDROLOGY... IT WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH SAT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AND MONDAY MAY PRODUCE HEAVY DOWNPOURS...WITH POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... SWELLS CONTINUE TO DECREASE OVERNIGHT. SINCE HIGH TIDE HAS PASSED ON THE ATLANTIC AND SEAS AT 44017 AT 5 FT...HAVE CANCELLED THE HIGH SURF ADVSY. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR ANZ350-353-355. && $$

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