Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 030759 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 359 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE TONIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE AREA LATE TUESDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MAY IMPACT THE AREA FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN FOR THE WEEKEND.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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LOW PRESSURE NEAR JAMES BAY IS PULLING A COLD FRONT SLOWLY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. MUCH OF THE CONVECTION FROM LAKE ONTARIO WEST TO CHICAGO CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. DEW POINT TEMPS NEAR 70 OVER LONG ISLAND AND COASTAL CT SUPPORTS THE FORMATION OF PATCHY FOG FOR SUNRISE THERE. OTHERWISE...A SUNNY START TO THE DAY. BASED ON LATEST NWP...WILL KEEP ALL AREAS DRY TODAY. DESPITE TEMPS INTO THE LOWER 90S...INSTABILITY IS NOT IMPRESSIVE WITH DEW POINT TEMPS AROUND 60. BULK SHEAR IS AROUND 30 KTS...BUT STILL LOW. NCAR ENSEMBLE IS DRY AS ARE LOCAL STONY BROOK WRF RUNS AND THE NCEP DETERMINISTIC RUNS. ONLY EXCEPTION TO NO CONVECTION IS THE SPC WRF WHICH GENERATES A CONVECTIVE CLUSTER AROUND 3 PM LOCAL IN NORTH JERSEY THAT TRACKS ENE ACROSS THE CITY. THE OPERATIONAL HIRES RUN HAS SOME IDEA ABOUT THIS AS WELL...BUT LESS INTENSE AND LESS COVERAGE. BASED ON THE THEMODYNAMIC ANALYSIS...WILL STICK WITH A DRY FCST. TEMPS ARE TOWARDS THE WARMER GFS MOS NUMBER. SEA BREEZE ENHANCED WITH THE AMBROSE JET EFFECT AND GUSTS TO NEAR 30 MPH LATE THIS AFTN OVER WESTERN LONG ISLAND. AS SUCH...THERE IS A HIGH RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RIP CURRENTS AT THE OCEAN BEACHES TODAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES. A RIP CURRENT STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
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COLD FRONT SAGS INTO THE REGION BY TUESDAY MORNING AND THEN BECOMES DIFFUSE. RATHER UNCERTAIN ON DETAILS FOR PCPN IN THIS PERIOD. HAVE CONTINUED THE IDEA OF SCT CONVECTION INTO TUESDAY MORNING. TEMPS REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS INTO THE LOWER 90S.
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&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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DEEP CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE FROM SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA INTO EASTERN CANADA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE ON WEDNESDAY. MUCH DRIER AIR MOVES IN ON WEDNESDAY WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 50S. SOME UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT FEEL AT THIS TIME THE AIR MASS WILL BE TOO DRY FOR ANY SHOWERS. HAVE LEFT THE FORECAST DRY FOR WEDNESDAY. BY THURSDAY...MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE ON A PIECE OF ENERGY INTERACTING WITH THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE MIDWEST. THIS SHORTWAVE ENERGY MAY THEN MOVE ALONG THE BASE OF THE TROUGH THROUGH THE AREA LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE AREA AND MAY IMPACT THE REGION. THE 18Z SUN AND 00Z MONDAY GFS ARE FLATTER WITH THE WAVE AND THUS KEEP LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF THE AREA COMPARED TO ITS PREVIOUS 12Z SUNDAY RUN...WHILE THE 00Z MONDAY ECMWF IS CONSISTENT WITH ITS 12Z RUN FROM SUNDAY INDICATING A MORE AMPLIFIED SHORTWAVE. THIS MORE AMPLIFIED SOLUTION WOULD BRING THE BOUNDARY AND WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE CLOSER TO THE REGION. THE 00Z MONDAY CMC IS THE MOST AMPLIFIED AND BRINGS THE LOW OVER THE AREA FRIDAY. THE 00Z GFS APPEARS TO BE AN OUTLIER AS THE 00Z GEFS ARE FURTHER NORTH WITH THE LOW AND MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE SHORTWAVE. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC LIFT TO WORK WITH...AS THE REGION LOOKS TO LIE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. A WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL WOULD BE A POSSIBILITY IF THE MORE AMPLIFIED AND FURTHER NORTH SOLUTIONS COME TO FRUITION. HAVE CONTINUED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST OF CHANCE POPS DUE TO UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME FRAME. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE OFFSHORE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND WITH A RETURN TO DRY CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS ON WEDNESDAY...AND THEN AVERAGE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THE REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
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&& .AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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HIGH PRESSURE TODAY WILL GIVE WAY TO AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. MAINLY VFR...WITH EXCEPTION OF KGON THIS MORNING WHICH SHOULD FLUCTUATE BETWEEN VFR AND IFR WITH AN ONSHORE FLOW. LIGHT S/SW FLOW EARLY THIS MORNING...INCREASES MID TO LATE MORNING AND BECOMES GUSTY IN THE AFTERNOON. STRONG SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED AT COASTAL TERMINALS. THERE IS A LOW PROB FOR SE SEABREEZE TO WORK INTO KEWR/KTEB. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF THUNDER LATE AT KSWF. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY A PROB30 GROUP. ELSEWHERE...PROBABILITIES ARE TO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME. ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT... DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE) KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE OF GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE SEABREEZE. TIMING OF GUSTS MAY BE OFF BY +/- HOUR. KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF GUSTS MAY BE OFF BY +/- HOUR. KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CHANCE OF SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT. WINDS MAY BECOME SOUTHEAST FOR BRIEF PERIOD AFTER 20Z. THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD. KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CHANCE OF SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT. WINDS MAY BECOME SOUTHEAST FOR BRIEF PERIOD AFTER 20Z. KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS MAY BE OCCASIONAL THIS AFTERNOON. KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE OF GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE SEABREEZE. TIMING OF GUSTS MAY BE OFF BY +/- HOUR. .OUTLOOK FOR 06Z TUE THROUGH FRI... .MON NIGHT-TUE...CHANCE OF TSTMS. COLD FROPA WITH S WINDS SHIFTING TO W. PATCHY FOG ACROSS OUTLYING TERMINALS MON NIGHT. .WED...VFR. W FLOW. .THU-FRI...MVFR OR LOWER CONDS POSSIBLE IN MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS.
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&& .MARINE...
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A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS LATE TODAY...MOVING CLOSE TO THE WATERS TONIGHT. WINDS OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT INCREASE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE LIGHTENING WITH THE APPROACH OF THE FRONT. OCEAN SEAS BUILD DUE TO THE INCREASE IN THESE WINDS. SCA STARTING AT 4 PM LOCAL AND THROUGH TONIGHT. OCCASIONAL 25 KT GUSTS POSSIBLE FOR NY HARBOR...WESTERN SOUTH SHORE BAYS AND WESTERN LI SOUND LATE MONDAY AFT INTO MONDAY EVENING. OCEAN SEAS WILL BE SUBSIDING TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT 5 FT SEAS MAY LINGER ON THE EASTERN OCEAN UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE PASSES OVER THE WATERS ON WEDNESDAY WITH SUB SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MAY PASS OVER THE WATERS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. OCCASIONAL SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY ON THE OCEAN.
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&& .HYDROLOGY...
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THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY WILL PRODUCT LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL...WHICH COULD LEAD TO MINOR POOR DRAINAGE NUISANCE FLOODING. A WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. HOWEVER...A LARGE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH THIS POTENTIAL EVENT.
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&& .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...NONE. NY...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NYZ075-080-081-178-179. NJ...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...DS/TONGUE NEAR TERM...TONGUE SHORT TERM...TONGUE LONG TERM...DS AVIATION...BC MARINE...DS/TONGUE HYDROLOGY...DS/TONGUE

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