Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 020932 CCA AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 532 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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A WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL LINGER TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS TO THE SOUTH ON INDEPENDENCE DAY. A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... FCST ON TRACK...BUT UPDATE ISSUED TO ACCOMMODATE MARINE CHANGES. SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY TODAY...WITH SCT FAIR WX CU DEVELOPING AND HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER/MID 80S...BUT UPPER 70S ALONG MOST SOUTH- FACING SHORELINES AND IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THESE TEMPS ARE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN THOSE OF YESTERDAY AND A TOUCH LOWER THAN THE COOLER 00Z GFS MOS GUIDANCE. COASTAL SEA BREEZES SHOULD DEVELOP...AND WILL BE WEAKER THAN THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS DUE TO THE WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE AND SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGH TEMPS INLAND. EXPECT MAINLY DRY CONDS...THOUGH COULD SEE AN ISOLD SHOWER OR TSTM DEVELOP LATE TODAY IN/NEAR NE NJ IN POCKET OF INSTABILITY/BLYR MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND AS A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE APPROACHES. THERE IS A MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK AT THE OCEAN BEACHES TODAY. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/... ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES DEVELOP IN/NEAR NE NJ COULD DRIFT E TOWARD NYC NEAR OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD START TO BUILD FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT INTO FRI...WITH N-NE FLOW AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...THEN WEAK COASTAL SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT IN THE AFTERNOON. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE A COOLER LOWER/MID 60S IN MOST PLACES...AND 55-60 ACROSS THE INTERIOR VALLEYS WELL NORTH/WEST OF NYC. HIGHS ON FRI UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER STILL...MAINLY 75-80. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THE 00Z MODEL SUITE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST WEAK LOW PRES WILL TRACK OFF THE DELMARVA AND OUT TO SEA ON THE 4TH. THIS GIVES THE CWA A GLANCING BLOW AT BEST...AND MAY ONLY RESULT IN SOME EXTRA CLOUDS ESPECIALLY LI INTO THE CITY AND NJ. INCLUDED SOME LOW POPS...MAINLY SCHC...FOR MOST OF THE AREA. IT SHOULD BE NOTED HOWEVER THAT AT THIS POINT ANY RAIN LOOKS LGT AND SPOTTY AT BEST. THEREAFTER...HI PRES BUILDS IN AND AS A RESULT HAVE GONE WITH A FAIR FCST THRU WED. THE ECMWF DOES HINT AT SOME RAIN TUE AS RESIDUAL CONVECTION GETS ENTRAINED IN THE UPR RIDGE. THIS APPEARS TO BE A ROGUE SOLN ATTM HOWEVER SO HAVE KEPT POPS BLW 15. DESPITE A DRY AIR MASS SUN-WED WITH PW GENERALLY AOB 1 INCH...THE HUMIDITY WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY LOW...ESPECIALLY AS THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK ARRIVES...AS PERSISTENT SLY COMPONENT FLOW DRAWS LLVL MOISTURE INTO THE CWA FROM THE ATLC. THIS COULD SET THE STAGE FOR SOME BOUTS OF MRNG FOG IF WINDS ARE LGT ENOUGH. TEMPS THRU THE LONG TERM CLOSE TO THE GMOS25 AND MAINLY AOB CLIMO. && .AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... A COLD FRONT WILL STALL TO THE S OF THE AREA TODAY AS HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT NW-N FLOW WILL GIVE WAY TO SEA BREEZES AT THE COAST DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTN. COULD BE AN ISOLATED LATE DAY SHOWER/TSTM NEAR THE NYC METRO TERMINALS. WINDS WILL LIKELY BECOME LIGHT AND VRB FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z. NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT... DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE) KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF SEABREEZE MAY BE +/- 1-2 HOURS. DIRECTION FORECAST AT 17Z MAY BE 10-20 DEGREES MORE SE TO START...BECOMING 180-190. KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF SEABREEZE MAY BE +/- 1-2 HOURS KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: SEABREEZE MAY PUSH THROUGH THE AIRFIELD BETWEEN 20-22Z THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD. KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: SEABREEZE MAY PUSH THROUGH THE AIRFIELD BETWEEN 20-22Z KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: SEABREEZE MAY PUSH THROUGH THE AIRFIELD BETWEEN 19-22Z KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF SEABREEZE MAY BE +/- 1-2 HOURS .OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY... .THU NIGHT...VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS. .FRI...VFR WITH WINDS VEERING FROM THE NE TO THE ESE. SEA BREEZES POSSIBLE. .FRI NIGHT-SAT...LOW PRES WILL TRACK S OF THE REGION. IF THE LOW IS CLOSE ENOUGH...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE WITH -RA. WINDS GENERALLY NE OR E. .SAT NIGHT-MON...VFR. && .MARINE... SEAS REMAIN AT 5 FT AT BUOY 44017 AND ARE CLOSER TO 4 FT AT THE BUOYS TO THE WEST...SO SCAHS EXTENDED TO 15Z E OF MORICHES INLET. THESE SEAS SHOULD SUBSIDE BLW 5 FT BY NOON AS FLOW TURNS MORE OFFSHORE AFTER A COLD FROPA. SEAS WILL GET CLOSE TO 5 FT ON THE OCEAN ON SAT AS LOW PRES PASSES TO THE S. ELSEWHERE...NE WINDS SHOULD BE IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE. WINDS AND SEAS WILL THEN LIKELY REMAIN BLW SCA LVLS SUN-WED AS A BROAD AREA OF HI PRES SETTLES IN. && .HYDROLOGY... WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT PCPN NOT EXPECTED. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... WITH A FULL MOON...TIDAL DEPARTURES OF ONLY 3/4 TO 1 1/2 FT ARE NEEDED FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING BENCHMARKS TO BE REACHED AT THE PEAK OF THE NIGHTTIME HIGH TIDES THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MINOR BENCHMARKS COULD BRIEFLY BE TOUCHED ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS OF NASSAU COUNTY THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ350. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMC/GOODMAN NEAR TERM...JMC/GOODMAN SHORT TERM...JMC/GOODMAN LONG TERM...JMC AVIATION...24 MARINE...JMC/GOODMAN HYDROLOGY...JMC/GOODMAN TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

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