Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 220244 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 1044 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST THIS EVENING...AND CROSSES THE TRI-STATE TONIGHT...MEANWHILE A COASTAL LOW TRACKS TO THE EAST...THEN NORTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH TUESDAY. THE HIGH THEN DOMINATES THE WEATHER THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
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DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY ABOUT 100 MILES SE OF MONTAUK WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE QUICKLY TO THE NORTHEAST. PRECIPITATION WITH THIS LOW HAS ENDED. MEANWHILE...THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO TRACK EAST TOWARDS THE REGION WITH A LINE OF SHOWERS AHEAD OF IT. THE SHOWERS HAVE WEAKENED A LITTLE SLOWER THAN ANTICIPATED SO HAVE ADJUSTED POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST TRENDS. THE LINE WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND THE BEST DYNAMICS MOVING NW OF THE CWA. HAVE ALSO SLIGHTLY ADJUSTED LOWS TONIGHT FOLLOWING LATEST TRENDS IN LAV GUIDANCE. VALUES STILL FORECAST TO BE 4 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL OUTSIDE OF THE NYC HEAT ISLAND...AND NEAR NORMAL INSIDE THE HEAT ISLAND AND AREAS TO THE N/W OF NYC DUE TO THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT. ALSO HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG THIS EVENING OVER SE CT/THE TWIN FORKS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WHILE LOCALLY DENSE FOG CANNOT BE RULED OUT - AM CURRENTLY NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN ITS POTENTIAL TO ISSUE ANY STATEMENTS.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... REGION REMAINS UNDER THE BASE OF 700-500 HPA TROUGH MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. WILL HAVE A FEW SHORTWAVES ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH - BUT GIVEN FORECAST DRYING IN THE LOW LEVELS WOULD ONLY EXPECT AT MOST SOME CLOUDS AS THEY PASS. SO GOING WITH A MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKY MONDAY AND A MOSTLY CLEAR TO CLEAR SKY MONDAY NIGHT AS A RESULT. FOR HIGHS MONDAY USED A BLEND OF MIXING DOWN FROM 875 HPA...EXCEPT 850 HPA OVER THE NW 1/4 OF THE CWA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE. EXPECT READINGS TO BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE WAS USED FOR LOWS MONDAY NIGHT - WITH READINGS FORECAST TO BE 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S ARE POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF ORANGE COUNTY. THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT ATLANTIC BEACHES MONDAY. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... A STRONG UPPER RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE EAST COAST TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH SUNDAY. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WHILE ANOTHER SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN FROM CENTRAL CANADA. THE COMBINED HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL BUILD EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND THROUGH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE HIGH THEN BUILDS OVER THE REGION THURSDAY AND REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY INTO SUNDAY. INITIALLY THE AIR MASS WILL BE COOL TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY...WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A WARMING TREND SETS UP FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE AIR MASS MODIFIES. NEXT WEEKEND TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE REBOUNDED TO ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. && .AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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A CDFNT ACROSS UPSTATE NY WILL PASS THRU THE REGION OVERNIGHT. LGT AND VRB WINDS BECOMING SW AS THE FRONT GETS CLOSER. WINDS SWITCH TO THE NW BEHIND THE FRONT. STRONG NW FLOW MON WITH ISOLD GUSTS TO 30KT. MAINLY VFR AHEAD OF THE FRONT...HOWEVER OCNL MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE IN THE CITY AND IFR ERN TERMINALS. A FEW -SHRA POSSIBLE INVOF THE FRONT...THEN VFR THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. .OUTLOOK FOR 00Z TUE THROUGH THU... .MON NIGHT...VFR. NW WINDS DIMINISHING. .TUE...VFR WITH LGT WINDS. .WED...MVFR CIGS AROUND 3000FT POSSIBLE. ENE WINDS 5-15KT. .THU...VFR WITH LGT NE FLOW.
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&& .MARINE... SEAS BUILD TO UP TO 5 FT ON THE WESTERN COASTAL OCEAN WATERS AND UP TO 8 FT ON THE EASTERN COASTAL OCEAN WATERS BY LATE TONIGHT. WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KT ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS ON MONDAY - HAVE CONVERTED SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS TO A PLAIN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. SCA WIND GUSTS SHOULD LINGER OVER THE EASTERN TWO COASTAL WATER ZONES INTO MONDAY EVENING AND SCA LEVEL SEAS THROUGH THE NIGHT IN THOSE TWO ZONES...SO HAVE EXTENDED THE SCA FOR ANZ-350 AND 353 THROUGH 10Z TUESDAY AS A RESULT. ON THE REMAINDER OF THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. WIND GUSTS TO 20 KT ARE FORECAST ON MONDAY - HOWEVER OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25KT CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THERE IS A CHANCE OF LINGERING 5 FOOT SEAS ACROSS THE EXTREME OUTER OCEAN WATERS EAST OF MORICHES INLET VERY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AS SEAS WILL BE SUBSIDING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WATERS TUESDAY INTO SATURDAY WIND AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS. && .HYDROLOGY... LITTLE IF ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT WITH THE PASSING OF A COASTAL LOW TO THE EAST AND THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FROM MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ355. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MALOIT/MET NEAR TERM...MALOIT/DS/MET SHORT TERM...MALOIT LONG TERM...MET AVIATION...JMC/GOODMAN MARINE...MALOIT/MET HYDROLOGY...MALOIT

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