Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 020546 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 1246 AM EST Fri Dec 2 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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Low pressure will continue to move across the Canadian Maritimes through today. High pressure will build in over the weekend, then break down as a series of frontal systems impact the area next week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
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Closed upper level low and trough remain located to the north tonight. Surface low pressure along the Canadian Maritimes slowly drifts northeastward, maintaining its strength around 990 mb. Persistent westerly flow due to a fairly tight pressure gradient continues, although gusts have become less frequent as boundary layer slowly cools. Strato-cu/instability clouds have cleared much of the region except portions of Orange county where they may hang around through the night. Temperatures should fall into the lower 40s in NYC, and into the 30s elsewhere.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/... Upper low drifts east, with shortwave and associated pva pivoting southeastward across across New England Friday night. At the surface, coastal low drifts east off the eastern Canadian coast as inland low weakens further. A trough begins to track east, well up in New England Friday night. Our area remains well mixed in persistent westerly flow as the pressure gradient between this slow moving low to the northeast and high pressure well to the west remains fairly tight. Daytime gusts will occur once again, likely becoming less frequent at night. Temperatures remains near normal, with daytime highs ranging from the middle 40s to around 50, and lows in the 30s. Partly to mostly sunny skies Friday will give way to a few more strato-cu clouds at night, associated with upper trough. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... The models were in fairly good agreement for this weekend, then there is a considerably high amount of spread in the data for the remainder of the forecast period. A 1030 high over the plains drifts towards the forecast area over the weekend. This keeps a breezy northwest flow locked in. With regard to precipitation, the area should be surrounded by lake effect to the north and west, and ocean effect to the south and east. As a result, the forecast has been kept dry. The Superblend was used for temperatures. The pattern for next week is not conducive to a solely blended approach, as this would lead to precipitation chances every day and smooth out the temperatures extremes. To complicate matters, the 12Z ECMWF was not available for the forecast. The 12Z GFS was therefore closely followed, but not blindly, as the general pattern was supported by the 00Z ECMWF and 06Z GFS. The first system is low pressure tracking northeastward from the southeastern United States. The timing on this is Tuesday and Tuesday night. There remain questions as to whether the low actually reaches the area or stays to the south, or if the low tracks to the east and warm slots the area. The probability of precipitation was therefore limited to 40 percent. An arctic front and possible associated low then come through by the end of the week. Again, the 12Z GFS was used which has a timing of Wednesday night into Thursday. Both systems will bring some chance for wintry precipitation, with the arctic front perhaps presenting a flash freeze threat. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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Strong low pressure will slowly drift east through the Canadian Maritimes today. VFR conditions. Westerly gusts of 20-25 kt...generally left of 310 magnetic...will become frequent mid to late morning and continue through the day. The gusts likely linger through the evening push for all terminals. .OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... .Late Friday night...VFR. West gusts 20-25 KT for NYC/NJ terminals, occasional for other terminals. .Saturday...VFR. NW gusts around 20 KT. .Sunday...VFR. .Monday-Tuesday...VFR...possibly lower at times depending on the track of low pressure to the south.
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&& .MARINE...
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The waters remain between deep low pressure near the Canadian Maritimes and high pressure well to the west through Friday. Gusty westerly winds will continue through tonight. There is likely to be a brief lull on the near shore waters as winds may average closer to 20 kt this morning. However, winds will once again reach SCA levels around 25 kt in the afternoon. For simplicity, have elected to extend the SCA on the LI Sound, LI Bays, and NY Harbor through tonight to match the timing of the ocean SCA, ending 11z Saturday. Winds and seas will subside gradually over the weekend. SCA criteria are possible, especially Saturday on the ocean. For next week, a series of frontal systems will produce hazardous conditions at times.
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&& .HYDROLOGY... After a dry weekend, periods of precipitation will be possible next week as a series of frontal systems impact the area. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST early this morning for ANZ335-338-345. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST early this morning for ANZ330-340. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Saturday for ANZ350-353- 355.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...JMC/PW NEAR TERM...Goodman/DS/PW SHORT TERM...PW LONG TERM...JMC AVIATION...JM/NV MARINE...JMC/DS HYDROLOGY...PW

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