Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 170735 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 335 AM EDT Tue Oct 17 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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A broad area of high pressure builds in from the west today, and will remain in control through the weekend.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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Frosty conditions early this morning...otherwise an upper shortwave axis moves east today, with slight mean upper troughing in its wake. At the surface, high pressure to the west gradually builds to the south of the region. Gusty N winds to start the day will gradually weaken through the day. Despite abundant sunshine, another slightly below seasonable day expected with cold pool overhead. Temps likely only topping out in the upper 50s to lower 60s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
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Slight shortwave upper ridging builds into the region during this period, while surface high pressure gradually slides south of the region. Good radiational cooling conditions likely tonight across interior with a favorable waa aloft setup for decoupling; allowing temps to fall into the lower to mid 30s once again. Frost conditions are likely once again late tonight across the interior of southern CT and for the suburbs NW of NYC metro. After collab with surrounding offices, will hold off on Frost Advisory just yet to see if any interior areas experience a hard freeze early this morning, ending their growing season. For city and coast, increasing potential for mixing as the night wears on in strengthening return flow, which may keep or bounce temps into the 40s. Lower 50s likely for the NYC metro. Sunny skies and a gradual moderation in temps begins on Wednesday as SW return flow develops around the high to the south. Temperatures should warm to slightly above seasonable levels int he upper 60s to lower 70s.
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
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Ridging both aloft and at the surface prevails through much of the period. Only a weak and dry cold front passage occurs Thursday night as the flow aloft turns cyclonic for a short period. The next chance of rainfall doesn`t appear to arrive until Monday night with the approach of the next cold front. Expect abundant sunshine throughout the period with daytime highs averaging around 7-10 degrees above normal.
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&& .AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... High pressure builds to the west this morning, then drifts south into the mid Atlantic states today. VFR. .OUTLOOK FOR 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... .Tonight-Saturday...VFR. && .MARINE...
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Marginal SCA gusts and seas are limited to the ocean waters early this morning, and will fall below SCA by around daybreak as the pressure gradient weakens. High pressure prevails through the upcoming weekend with sub SCA conditions. The only exception is that SCA conditions may be approached Thursday night on the eastern ocean waters ahead of a weak cold front with SW winds gusting up to 20 kt.
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&& .HYDROLOGY...
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No hydrologic issues expected through this weekend.
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&& .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for CTZ005>008. NY...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for NYZ067>070. NJ...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for NJZ002. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for ANZ350- 353-355.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...JC/NV NEAR TERM...NV SHORT TERM...NV LONG TERM...JC AVIATION...JMC MARINE...JC/NV HYDROLOGY...JC/NV

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