Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 260012 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 812 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE PASSING TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY...AND WILL BE THROUGH THE REGION BY FRIDAY MORNING. A WEAK TROUGH MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SUNDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR TUESDAY. YET ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
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FORECAST ON TRACK WITH JUST MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO REFLECT CURRENT OBSERVATIONS. AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. THE PRECIPITATION IS LIGHT...AND NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH OF RAIN OR SO THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST THROUGH MIDNIGHT. AFTER THAT...A WARM FRONT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY CONTINUES TO LIFT TOWARDS THE APPALACHIANS TONIGHT...AND SHOULD BE THROUGH BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY. WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND SFC DEW POINTS RISING THROUGH THE 30S AND INTO THE LOW 40S...CAN EXPECT FOG TO DEVELOP...AS THE WARM AND MOIST AIR FLOWS OVER THE RELATIVE COLDER OCEAN WATERS. WITH THE ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...THERE WILL BE SOME LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE IN ADDITION TO THE FOG. LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE MID 30S INLAND TO AROUND 40 NEAR THE COAST.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/... WAVES OF LOW PRES WILL PASS WEST OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY...AND WITH PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WIDESPREAD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...CAN EXPECT ON AND OFF SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. AREAS OF ADVECTION FOG WILL SPREAD OVER THE AREA AS WELL...WITH VISIBILITIES ACROSS SOME AREAS NEAR THE COASTS POSSIBLY DROPPING BELOW A MILE. BY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING...STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET WILL LIFT INTO THE REGION. THIS...COMBINED WITH MARGINAL ELEVATED INSTABILITY...MAY BE ENOUGH TO TOUCH OFF SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. BEST CHANCES WILL BE OVER WESTERN ZONES...WHERE TEMPS WILL RISE INTO THE 60S...BUT WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF STORMS OVER EASTERN ZONES DUE TO THE ELEVATED NATURE. COLD FRONT SWINGS ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY OFFSHORE BY FRIDAY MORNING. SHOWERS TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST...BUT WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS FOR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES FRIDAY MORNING AS THOSE AREAS WILL NEAR THE FRONT. BY AFTERNOON...MOST SHOWERS SHOULD BE DONE EXPECT FOR AREAS ALONG THE COAST. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE LOW 60S IN/AROUND NYC...BUT FOG WILL KEEP LONG ISLAND AND CT IN THE 50S. TEMPS WILL ALSO STAY IN THE 50S ACROSS THE INTERIOR. WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL GENERALLY TOP OFF IN THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... BROAD UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE EAST COAST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH THE TROUGH MOVING EAST OF THE REGION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATES THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH WHILE AT THE SURFACE A WEAK TROUGH REMAINS BEHIND DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE. THE COMBINATION WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT WITH LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. COLDER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND A COLD FRONT WITH LOWERING LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL MIX WITH AND TRANSITION TO SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. HEIGHTS WILL BE RISING SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS WEAK RIDGING BUILDS ALOFT AND SURFACE HIGH ALSO BUILDS IN. NORTHERN STREAM FLOW BECOMES MORE PROGRESSIVE AS STRONG WESTERN RIDGE WEAKENS WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE RIDGE. THIS RESULTS IN HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDING FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...THEN MOVING OFF THE COAST SUNDAY NIGHT. DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL ERODE THE COLD AIR THAT WAS IN PLACE BEHIND THE PREVIOUS LOW. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. WITH LOWER AMPLITUDE UPPER FLOW SYSTEMS QUICKLY MOVE EAST. AS A RESULT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...THEN ANOTHER LOW APPROACHES FOR WEDNESDAY. WITH A WARM FRONT AND OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION MOVING IN WEDNESDAY. OVERALL...FORECAST FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. && .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST ON THURSDAY. MVFR WILL DEVELOP QUICKLY THIS EVENING...THEN IFR OVERNIGHT...GENERALLY AFTER 6Z. IFR WITH OCCASIONAL LIFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER AT WESTERN TERMINALS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME THE CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE IS TO LOW TO REFLECT IN TAFS. WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGHOUT THIS EVENING. WINDS THEN BECOME S-SSE AT UNDER 10KT BY MID-LATE THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS INCREASE TO S 10-15KT EARLY-MID THURSDAY AFTERNOON. LLWS PROBABLE AT KJFK/KISP OVERNIGHT...AND THEN IS LIKELY AT AROUND 18-19ZZ AT KISP/KBDR/KGON AND AT 22Z AT ALL BUT KSWF/KHPN/KTEB. WINDS AT 2000 FT INCREASE TO 55-65 KT AT CT/LONG ISLAND TERMINALS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND TO 45-55KT AT NYC TERMINALS. NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT... DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE) KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF ONSET OF IFR CONDITIONS COULD BE OFF BY +/- 2-3 HOURS. VARIABLE CONDITIONS FROM LIFR TO MVFR POSSIBLE THURSDAY MORNING. KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF ONSET OF IFR CONDITIONS COULD BE OFF BY +/- 2-3 HOURS. VARIABLE CONDITIONS FROM LIFR TO MVFR POSSIBLE THURSDAY MORNING. KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF ONSET OF IFR CONDITIONS COULD BE OFF BY +/- 2-3 HOURS. VARIABLE CONDITIONS FROM LIFR TO MVFR POSSIBLE THURSDAY MORNING. KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF ONSET OF IFR CONDITIONS COULD BE OFF BY +/- 2-3 HOURS. VARIABLE CONDITIONS FROM LIFR TO MVFR POSSIBLE THURSDAY MORNING. KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF ONSET OF IFR CONDITIONS COULD BE OFF BY +/- 2-3 HOURS. VARIABLE CONDITIONS FROM LIFR TO MVFR POSSIBLE THURSDAY MORNING. KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF ONSET OF IFR CONDITIONS COULD BE OFF BY +/- 2-3 HOURS. VARIABLE CONDITIONS FROM LIFR TO MVFR POSSIBLE THURSDAY MORNING. .OUTLOOK FOR 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY... .THURSDAY NIGHT..MVFR/IFR OR LOWER IN SHRA. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. LLWS LIKELY EASTERN TERMINALS AND POSSIBLE CITY TERMINALS THURSDAY EVENING. NW WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. .FRIDAY...BECOMING VFR. .FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...CHANCE MVFR WITH IN ANY -SHRA/-SHSN. N-NE WINDS G15-25KT POSSIBLE. .SATURDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...VFR. SW-W WINDS G15-25KT POSSIBLE.
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&& .MARINE... WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT...AND THEN A COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON THURSDAY. THAT FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE BECOMING NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS ON FRIDAY. THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN DURING THE DAY THURSDAY...AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ON THE OCEAN AND SOUTH SHORE BAYS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS FALL BELOW SCA CONDITIONS ON THE SS BAYS THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED ON THE OCEAN WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. LINGERING SMALL CRAFT SEAS ON THE OCEAN WILL REMAIN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH A STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW BETWEEN DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TO THE WEST. ALSO...GUSTS ON THE OCEAN WATERS MAY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT FOR A WHILE SATURDAY. THE FLOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY BECOMES WEST THEN SOUTHWEST AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST AND ANOTHER LOW APPROACHES. SMALL CRAFT SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS LINGER INTO MONDAY. && .HYDROLOGY... 1/2 TO 1 INCH OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FROM TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THE RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT WILL RESULT IN MINOR TO MODERATE RISES ON RIVERS/STREAMS ACROSS MAINLY SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT AND LOWER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY DURING THE LATE WEEK PERIOD...POSSIBLY INTO THIS WEEKEND. SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. CURRENTLY RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW BANKFULL...BUT THE MILD TEMPS AND INCREASED RIVER/STREAM FLOW WILL INCREASE ICE BREAKUP AND MOVEMENT DURING THE LATE WEEK PERIOD. ISOLATED ICE JAMS ARE POSSIBLE...WHICH IF THEY OCCUR...COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING. SINCE ICE JAM FLOODING IS UNPREDICTABLE AND SUDDEN...INTERESTS ALONG ICE COVERED RIVERS SHOULD MONITOR NWS FORECASTS FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION. FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB SITE. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THURSDAY TO 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THURSDAY TO 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ345. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MPS/MET NEAR TERM...BC/MPS SHORT TERM...MPS LONG TERM...MET AVIATION...MALOIT MARINE...MPS/MET HYDROLOGY...MPS/MET

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