Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 290531 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 131 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND MOVES THROUGH DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION...AND THEN OFFSHORE...FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE WILL IMPACT THE REGION THIS WEEKEND...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE START OF THE NEW WEEK.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
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CIRRUS THICKENING AND INCREASING AS IT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR NEAR STEADY TEMPERATURES THE REST OF THE NIGHT. WITH DEWPOINTS SLIGHTLY INCREASING FROM LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW...SOME PATCHY FOG IS ALREADY STARTING TO DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION. EXPECTING MORE PATCHY FOG TOWARDS DAYBREAK AS TEMP AND DEWPOINT DIFFERENCES BECOME SMALLER. LOWS WERE SLIGHTLY ADJUSTED AND WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S TO NEAR 60. UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO TRACK FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO WESTERN QUEBEC OVERNIGHT WITH WEAKENING SHORTWAVE ENERGY APPROACHING THE NE US. RESULTANT SURFACE LOW TAKES A SIMILAR TRACK TO THE UPPER LOW...WITH TAILING COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE REGION OVERNIGHT. WITH UPPER/MID LEVEL ENERGY AND THERMAL ADVECTION LAGGING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...NOT EXPECTING MUCH ACTIVITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS COULD REACH AREAS FAR N&W OF NYC TOWARDS DAYBREAK AS FRONT IMPINGES ON THE REGION.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/... UPPER LOW AND SURFACE LOW CONTINUE TO MOVE NE THROUGH THROUGH NORTHERN QUEBEC WEDNESDAY INTO WED NIGHT WITH ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SLOWLY CROSSING W TO E THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY AND PUSHING EAST WED NIGHT. MOST OF THE LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE POST FRONTAL IN WAKE OF INITIAL COLD FRONT PASSAGE...AS SHORTWAVE/RIGHT REAR JET ENERGY APPROACH AND AHEAD OF A SECONDARY FRONT WITH SHOT OF CAA. THIS LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL SLIDE W TO E ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE UNSEASONABLY MILD DESPITE CLOUD COVER AND RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY...AND WITH CAA LAGGING FRONTAL PASSAGE. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH OFFSHORE WED NIGHT WITH ANY LAGGING SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER EASTERN CT/LI COMING TO AN END IN THE EVENING. CONTINUED CAA ON NW FLOW WILL BRING TEMPS CLOSER TO SEASONABLE NORMS LAT WED NIGHT...GENERALLY IN THE 40S. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... 12Z MODELS DIVERGE IN TERMS OF TIMING...STRENGTH...AND PLACEMENT OF LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL IMPACT THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. THE RESULT REMAINS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST IN TERMS OF PTYPE FOR THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION ON THURSDAY BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE ON FRIDAY. DRY CONDS WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. DEEP UPPER TROUGH THEN DIGS INTO THE EASTERN SEABOARD ON FRIDAY...AND STRONG H5 SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THIS WILL SPIN UP A COASTAL LOW OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA. LIGHT PRECIP WILL DEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THE AMOUNT OF PRECIP THAT IMPACTS THE REGION AND THE PTYPE WILL DEPEND ON HOW FAR EAST/WEST THAT LOW TRACKS ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. 12Z GFS IS MUCH FARTHER OFFSHORE...AND KEEPS THE BULK OF THE PRECIP OVER THE ATLANTIC. MEANWHILE...THE 12Z ECMWF SEEMS TO BE A BIT MORE WEST THAN IT WAS PREVIOUSLY. 12Z CMC IS FASTER AND FARTHER OFFSHORE COMPARED TO BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF. THE ECMWF HAS SUPPORT FROM SOME OF THE GFS MEMBERS...BUT NOT ALL. THE ECMWF TRACK WOULD ALLOW FOR ENOUGH WARM AIR TO SURGE ALONG THE COAST TO KEEP PRECIP RAIN ACROSS MOST AREAS ON SATURDAY...BUT THEN COLD AIR SPILLS IN BEHIND IT SATURDAY NIGHT FOR PRECIP TO CHANGE TO SNOW ACROSS THE INTERIOR...AND POSSIBLY A RAIN/SNOW MIX ELSEWHERE. WHAT ALSO REMAINS TO BE SEEN IS HOW FAR WEST BANDING BEHIND THE LOW WILL BE ABLE TO SPREAD. AS A RESULT... SATURDAY NIGHT SEEMS TO BE SHAPING UP AS A BIT MORE INTERESTING THAN SATURDAY...BUT THAT STILL REMAINS TO BE SEEN. WILL BUMP POPS UP TO LIKELY FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT FOR EASTERN AREAS. SOME PRECIP MAY LINGER ACROSS EASTERN AREAS ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRES RETURNS FOR THE START OF THE NEW WORK WEEK. TEMPS THIS WEEKEND WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL...GENERALLY IN THE 40S. COULD BE LOWER DEPENDING ON DYNAMICAL COOLING...WHICH COULD LEAD TO MORE IN THE WAY OF SNOW. TEMPS THEN MODERATE GOING INTO THE NEW WEEK...BUT WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PASS THRU THE REGION TODAY. A FEW SHRA OR SPRINKLES INVOF THE FRONT TODAY. ALTHOUGH A BRIEF MVFR SHRA IS POSSIBLE...IT WILL BE MAINLY VFR THRU THE TAF PERIOD. SWLY WINDS VEER TO THE W WITH THE FRONT. A SECOND FEATURE BRINGS WINDS TO THE NW TNGT AFT 2Z. OCNL GUSTS POSSIBLE AFT 12Z...THEN BECOME MORE FREQUENT IN THE AFTN AND ARE INCLUDED IN THE TAFS AS A RESULT. WINDS AT 2K FT AROUND 35-40KT TIL 10-12Z. .OUTLOOK FOR 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... .WED NIGHT-FRI...VFR. .FRI NIGHT-SAT...MVFR OR LOWER CONDS LIKELY...MAINLY VIA RAIN SHOWERS BUT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AT KSWF DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND MORNING. NE-N WINDS G20-25KT. .SAT NIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER CONDS LIKELY WITH CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW. N WINDS G25-30KT. .SUNDAY...BECOMING VFR WITH PRECIPITATION ENDING. NW WINDS G25-30KT.
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&& .MARINE...
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PERSISTENT 15 TO 20 KT S/SW FLOW ON THE OCEAN WILL KEEP OCEAN SEAS UP TO SCA LEVELS OVERNIGHT...AND CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WIND GUSTS AT TIMES COULD REACH 25 KT ON THE OCEAN OVERNIGHT INTO WED AM...BUT FREQUENCY WILL BE MORE LIMITED DUE TO WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT. FOR OTHER WATERS...GUSTS WILL BE CLOSER TO 20 KT AT TIMES. THE SCA SEAS COULD LINGER ACROSS EASTERN OCEAN WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH GUSTY NW FLOW IN WAKE OF FRONTAL PASSAGE AND RESIDUAL 4-5 FT SOUTHERLY SWELLS. WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA LEVELS THU-FRI. CONDITIONS DETERIORATE OVER THE WEEKEND WITH GALES POSSIBLE AS LOW PRES DEVELOPS OVER THE ATLANTIC. IMPROVEMENT FOR THE START OF THE NEW WEEK AS THE STORM PULLS AWAY AND HIGH PRES BUILDS TO THE WEST.
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&& .HYDROLOGY... LESS THAN ONE TENTH OF AN INCH RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WITH THE SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVE. MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY OVER THE WEEKEND. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ350- 353-355.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...MPS/NV NEAR TERM...JM/NV/DW SHORT TERM...NV LONG TERM...MPS AVIATION...JMC MARINE...MPS/NV HYDROLOGY...MPS/NV

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