Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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FXUS61 KOKX 160523
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
123 AM EDT Sat Mar 16 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Weak high pressure builds in overnight and shifts offshore on
Saturday. A cold front then approaches Saturday night and
passes through during Sunday. Low pressure over NE Canada on
Monday will bring a cold front late Monday followed by high
pressure Monday night into Tuesday. Another low passes north
Wednesday with Canadian high pressure building in on Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
The fcst is on track. Weak high pressure builds in tonight with
a zonal flow aloft. Fewer clouds around overnight should
promote some radiational cooling as winds have become light to
calm. NBM looked reasonable for temperatures, even for spots
that are more prone to radiational cooling since the magnitude
of the cooling is uncertain. Low temperatures about 5-10 degrees
above normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
Slight deep-layered ridging occurs Saturday morning, with the
surface ridge axis shifting to our east late in the day into the
evening. Dry with mostly sunny conditions for Saturday. A cold
front then approaches Saturday night and passes through during
Sunday morning. The best combination of lift from the front and
available moisture will be over the northern zones, but thinking
is at least a slight chance of showers will exist everywhere.
Chances of showers begin late at night over the western zones
and exit the eastern zones by noon on Sunday. High temperatures
both days this weekend remaining above normal, mostly in the mid
50s to around 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Light west to northwest flow stays in place Sunday night into Monday
morning following the cold frontal passage earlier on Sunday. A weak
front may pass Sunday night, but will be too dry with little
forcing, so not much change expected with this.

Cold air advection aloft with a deepening 520dam trough Monday into
Tuesday will lead to cooler temperatures. Highs Monday will be near
50 to the mid-40s, then down to the mid/low-40s on Tuesday. Lows
Sunday night will be in the mid/upper-30s then in the low-30s to
upper-20s Monday night.

Late Monday a stronger cold front will pass, but very little
moisture is associated with it with PWATs remaining below average
with its passing. If anything occurs, it will likely be an isolated
rain/snow shower for the interior Hudson Valley.

Winds pick up following the FROPA late Monday, with  high pressure
building in following the FROPA into Tuesday. At the same time, a
low will pass offshore to the east late Monday into Tuesday. The
increasing pressure gradient will lead to peak west to northwest
wind gusts 25-30 mph during the day on Tuesday.

A clipper low develops west of us on Tuesday and passes to our north
on Wednesday. If it passes in close enough proximity, a few snow
showers may be possible for interior locations. Dry air, however,
still looks pretty entrenched in the area during this time frame, so
have only kept a low-end slight chance in the forecast for this
occurring.

Heights rise and become zonal Wednesday into Thursday with Canadian
surface high pressure nosing in on Thursday. Temperatures look to
gradually warm in response with highs Wednesday in the mid/upper-40s
then back into the upper-40s to low-50s on Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High pressure will build in from the west overnight. The high
passes south of the terminals on Saturday.

VFR. Northerly winds diminishing overnight, becoming light and
variable or light WNW, before increasing after 12Z to 7 to 10
kt. Flow backs to the S for most terminals in the afternoon and
into the evening. Gusts may occur overnight ahead of an
approaching cold front.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Some variability in wind direction possible thru 9Z.

OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

Saturday late night: VFR. SW gusts up to 20kt possible.

Sunday: Chance of showers with brief MVFR conditions possible,
mainly at KSWF in the morning. SW winds 10-15G20kt in the
morning, becoming W 15G20-25kt in the afternoon, then
diminishing at night.

Monday: VFR. W winds 10-15G20kt, becoming WNW in the evening

Tuesday: VFR. WNW winds 15G20-25kt.

Wednesday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Only minor changes to wind speeds over the waters through the
overnight as winds are running a couple of knots below forecast
values.

Sub-advisory conditions expected to prevail overnight through
Saturday, however there could be a few gusts to 25k t on the
ocean west of Fire Island Inlet in the afternoon due to a
developing seabreeze circulation. Winds then pick up Saturday
night ahead of a cold front. Marginal SCA conds develop at least
on the ocean late at night. Being a marginal late 3rd period
event, have decided to hold off on issuing a SCA for the time
being. Better chances for advisory conditions will be on Sunday
on ocean, mainly for seas.

SCA cond likely on most if not all waters from late day Mon into Tue
evening with and following a cold frontal passage, with NW flow
gusting up to 30 kt on the ocean and 25 kt elsewhere. With offshore
flow ocean seas should get no higher than 4-6 ft. Minimal SCA cond
should linger on the ocean into the rest of Tue night, falling below
SCA cond Wednesday morning.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts are expected today through late next week.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JC/BR
NEAR TERM...MET
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...BR
AVIATION...MW
MARINE...JC/BR/MET
HYDROLOGY...JC/BR


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