Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 260223 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 1023 PM EDT MON JUL 25 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front moves through the region overnight. High pressure builds to the west Tuesday and moves off the southeast coast Wednesday into Thursday. A weak cold front approaches the region Friday and will linger into the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... The area of showers continues to move quickly east and south and updated grids to end precipitation sooner. Rain cooled, and humid, airmass remains across the region ahead of a cold front. The front at 02z was still across upstate New York. The front is forecast to move through after 06Z. Drier air moves in behind the cold front with dew points lowering into the lower and mid 60s. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Quasizonal flow prevails as cold front settles just east and high pressure builds. With 850 hpa temps still running in the high teens...deep mixing...downslope flow and full sunshine...expect temps to quickly rise into the lower to mid 90s. Noticeably lower dewpoints should keep heat indices close to air temps...but close enough for heat advisory for NYC metro. Sea breezes should be limited to late day and immediate south coasts...if at all. High pressure builds Tuesday night. Lows range from the lower 60s well inland to the lower 70s in and around NYC metro. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Dry Wednesday and Wednesday night as high pressure builds, and zonal flow aloft remains. Sfc front approaches Thursday ahead of mid/upper level weak trough, and it appears that the upper trough amplifies just a bit. The front may settle nearby through the weekend. This sets the stage for unsettled weather with chances for showers and thunderstorms through Sunday. Temperatures will average above normal Wednesday and Thursday, then temperatures settle back closer to normal thereafter. && .AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Showers and thunderstorms have weakened. These linger across the terminals with exception of KSWF with isolated to scattered lightning strikes embedded within showers. These will decrease from west to east this evening with some accompanying MVFR visibilities and even some localized IFR especially out east. Some lingering light showers are forecast for a few a hours thereafter. Conditions will return to VFR with exception to overnight into early Tuesday when some patchy MVFR fog could develop with residual low level moisture and light winds. VFR returns for all terminals Tuesday by mid morning and continues through the rest of the day. Regarding winds overall, more of a northerly flow at less than 10 kts will set up across the terminals from west to east. The winds will be light and variable with wind speeds 5 kt or less outside of the city terminals. Winds switch to more of a westerly flow 5-10 kt Tuesday with gusts between 15-20 kt in the afternoon. ...NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support... KJFK TAF Comments: Amendments possible with MVFR timing which could vary a few hours from forecast. Patchy MVFR fog possible towards daybreak. KLGA TAF Comments: Amendments possible with MVFR timing which could vary a few hours from forecast. Patchy MVFR fog possible towards daybreak. KEWR TAF Comments: Amendments possible with MVFR timing which could vary a few hours from forecast. Patchy MVFR fog possible towards daybreak. KTEB TAF Comments: Amendments possible with MVFR timing which could vary a few hours from forecast. Patchy MVFR fog possible towards daybreak. KHPN TAF Comments: Amendments possible with MVFR timing which could vary a few hours from forecast. KISP TAF Comments: Amendments possible with MVFR timing which could vary a few hours from forecast. .OUTLOOK FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... .Tuesday Night-Early Thursday Afternoon...VFR. .Mid-Late Thursday Afternoon-Saturday...MVFR or lower possible with a chance of showers and thunderstorms. && .MARINE... A cold front approaches the waters, then slowly moves through the waters after 06z. High pressure builds behind the front Tuesday and Wednesday. A Frontal boundary then approaches and remains nearby through the remainder of the week. Sub SCA conditions are expected through the remainder of the week. && .HYDROLOGY... Precipitation will be exiting the eastern zones by 06Z with a few hundredths of an inch of rainfall. There is the potential for scattered showers and thunderstorms, across the area Thursday through the weekend. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...Heat Advisory from noon to 6 PM EDT Tuesday for NYZ072>075-176- 178. NJ...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...PW NEAR TERM...MET SHORT TERM...PW LONG TERM...PW AVIATION...JM MARINE...MET/PW HYDROLOGY...PW

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