Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 271456 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 956 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE LATE SUNDAY. A QUICK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BRIEFLY ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM IMPACTS THE AREA FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. HAVE REDUCED CLOUD COVER WITH THIS UPDATE...ESPECIALLY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING. ALSO HAVE REMOVED THE CHANCE OF FLURRIES. MODELS STILL SHOW SOME LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING IN THIS AFTERNOON COINCIDENT WITH A SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH...BUT THE MOISTURE WILL BE VERY SHALLOW. SO THINKING IS THAT WE CAN STILL SEE SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS LATER TODAY...BUT SKY GRIDS MAY STILL HAVE TOO MUCH CLOUD COVER FOR THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMP FORECAST OF MID TO UPPER 20S STILL LOOKS GOOD BASED ON MIXING TO 925 MB...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THROUGH AT LEAST THE REST OF THE MORNING...AND SOMEWHAT OF A DOWNSLOPE CONTRIBUTION TO HEATING. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/... SUNNY AND COLD WITH TEMPS ABOUT 20 DEGREES BELOW CLIMATOLOGY. THE HI IS PROGGED TO STRENGTHEN TO ABOUT 1045 BY 00Z SUN...WITH THE CENTER OF THE HI JUST W OF THE CWA. THIS WILL RESULT IN DIMINISHING WINDS THROUGH THE DAY...POSSIBLY BECOMING CALM ACROSS ALL BUT THE IMMEDIATE COASTS AND CITY BY DARK. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... EXPECT DRY AND COLD CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT...AS A CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...BEFORE MOVING OFF THE COAST SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS INLAND AND IN THE TEENS ALONG THE COAST. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATER ON SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY. AT THIS TIME PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE MOSTLY SNOW WITH THE SYSTEM...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW INCHES. TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER 30S WITH NIGHT TIME TEMPERATURES DROPPING A FEW DEGREES IN THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST LATER ON MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY. PRECIPITATION TYPE REMAINS UNCERTAIN...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE WARMER AIR WILL BE DRAWN INTO THIS SYSTEM. THEREFORE...PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO START AS SNOW TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THEN TRANSITION OVER TO RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PASS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE LATTER PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT BELOW NORMAL ON MONDAY...THEN RISE TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. && .AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST INTO SATURDAY MORNING. VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. N-NW WINDS AROUND 10 KT OR LESS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF 155-20KT POSSIBLE INTO EARLY EVENING. NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT... DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE) KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND DIRECTION WILL VARY FROM 330-020 TRUE (340-030 MAGNETIC) INTO THIS AFTERNOON. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 15-20 KT THROUGH 2Z. KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND DIRECTION WILL VARY FROM 310-030 TRUE (320-040 MAGNETIC) INTO THIS AFTERNOON. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 15-20 KT THROUGH 2Z. KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND DIRECTION WILL VARY FROM 330-020 TRUE (340-030 MAGNETIC) INTO THIS AFTERNOON. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 15-20 KT THROUGH 2Z. THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD. KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 15-20 KT THROUGH 2Z. KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 15-20 KT THROUGH 2Z. KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 15-20 KT THROUGH 2Z. .OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... .SATURDAY-SUNDAY MORNING...VFR. .SUNDAY AFTERNOON-MONDAY MORNING...-SN PROBABLE WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS. SE WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. .MONDAY AFTERNOON-TUESDAY MORNING...VFR. NW WINDS G15-25KT POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. .TUESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN -SN CHANGING TO A WINTRY MIX AND/OR RAIN. LLWS POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT. && .MARINE... SEAS AROUND 5 FT TODAY ON THE OCEAN WITH SCA REMAINING IN PLACE. WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA LEVELS TONIGHT AND SAT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE W. BELOW SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY ACROSS THE AREA WATERS. SEAS BUILD TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS ON MONDAY...WITH AN INCREASE SOUTHWEST FLOW ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS. NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND A COLD FRONT COULD PRODUCE GUSTS TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS ON THE OCEAN WATERS ON MONDAY. && .HYDROLOGY... THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A LIGHT SNOW EVENT LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING. THIS EVENT WILL HAVE NO IMMEDIATE IMPACT ON THE HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA. ICE WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ON LOCAL AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS AS TEMPERATURES REMAIN WELL BELOW AVERAGE. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ350-353-355. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMC/FIG NEAR TERM...JC/JMC SHORT TERM...JMC LONG TERM...FIG AVIATION...MALOIT/DS MARINE...JMC/FIG HYDROLOGY...JMC/FIG

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