Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
834 FXUS61 KOKX 231432 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 1032 AM EDT Tue May 23 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
Weak high pressure resides over the area today. A low pressure system tracks southeast of Long Island late tonight into Wednesday morning. Weak high pressure builds in on Wednesday, followed by low pressure Thursday into Friday. High pressure returns for the beginning half of the upcoming holiday weekend, but low pressure may again bring some unsettled weather during the latter half.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Weak high pressure will reside over the region today resulting in tranquila conditions. Considerable mid and high level cloud cover will stream into the region in broad southwest flow ahead of a larger scale upper low today...with high near to slightly below seasonable. Generally upper 60s coast...to lower 70s to 75 for City and interior.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/... Mid and high-level clouds will continue to increase ahead of a short-wave that will contribute to a deepening area of low pressure of the coast. With the system passing to the south, the best chance of any rainfall will be closer to the coast, particularly across eastern Long Island and Connecticut overnight. Cloud cover and somewhat stronger northeast flow will keep low temperatures close to normal. By afternoon, the low departs giving way to south flow and near normal temperatures that will be slightly cooler near the coast in onshore flow. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... An unsettled weather pattern continues through the long term period. Another round of rainfall arrives late Wednesday night, with rainfall being most likely Thursday into Thursday night. Some elevated instability should be present, so will keep isolated thunder for Thursday and Thursday night. There could also be some fog for late Wednesday night into Thursday morning with a warm front not too far off to the south. The low exits to the NE on Friday, but the threat of showers will remain in the forecast. Temperatures will be slightly below normal on Thursday, then return to more seasonable levels on Friday. Weak high pressure then returns Friday night and Saturday. Will go with a dry forecast and slightly above normal temperatures for now. Another low pressure system is then expected for Sunday and Monday, brining yet another round of unsettled weather to the region. && .AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Weak high pressure move offshore this afternoon. Low pressure passes to the southeast late tonight. VFR with mid and high level clouds increasing from the SW through the day. There is a low chance of light rain late overnight, mainly at the coastal terminals. N-NE at 5-10KT then an afternoon seabreeze is probable at all but KSWF/KHPN. NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support... Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component fcsts, can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 KJFK TAF Comments: Timing of seabreeze may vary by 1-2 hours. KLGA TAF Comments: Timing of seabreeze may vary by 1-2 hours. KEWR TAF Comments: Timing of seabreeze may vary by 1-2 hours. The afternoon KEWR haze potential forecast is GREEN, which implies slant range visibility 7SM or greater outside of cloud. KTEB TAF Comments: Timing of seabreeze may vary by 1-2 hours. KHPN TAF Comments: Low chance of a late afternoon seabreeze. KISP TAF Comments: Timing of seabreeze may vary by 1-2 hours. .OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... .Wednesday...MVFR possible at the coastal terminals in the morning. .Wednesday night-Friday night...MVFR or lower possible. Slight chance of thunderstorms Thursday. E winds G20kt with LLWS possible. .Saturday...VFR.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
Winds and seas are expected to remain below small craft levels through tonight. Overnight, an initially weak pressure gradient will tighten as an area of low pressure moves up the coast. As such, marginal NE SCA winds and seas are likely to develop on the ocean late tonight into Wednesday morning. Winds should subside by Wednesday afternoon...but seas may remain elevated on the ocean through Wednesday night. Low pressure will approach the waters Thursday night through Friday night, bringing the next chance if advisory level conditions. Seas will increase again to 5-6 ft late Thursday night and continue through Friday. Seas finally diminish Friday night to below 5 ft. Wind gust through this time will primarily remain between 20-25 kt. Conditions fall back below SCA levels for the weekend.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .HYDROLOGY... No hydrologic impacts are anticipated tonight through the end of the week. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
-- Changed Discussion --
Increasing threat for successive rounds of minor coastal flooding for the Wed Night, Thu Morning and Thu Night high tide cycles. Greatest threat for widespread minor and potentially moderate coastal flooding appears to be with the Thursday eve/night high tide cycle as a slow moving low pressure system approaches the region...and with less than 1/2 ft of surge needed in many places to reach minor flood thresholds and 1 to 2 ft for moderate.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BC/MD NEAR TERM...BC/MD SHORT TERM...MD LONG TERM...BC AVIATION...IRD MARINE...BC/MD HYDROLOGY...BC/MD TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...nv

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.