Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 090314 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 1114 PM EDT TUE JUL 8 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION WED NIGHT...THEN STALLS JUST SOUTH THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FOR THE WEEKEND WITH THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM IMPACTING THE NORTHEAST BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
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COLD POOL INDUCED PRES RISES PRODUCING STRONG WLY COMPONENT WINDS BEHIND THE INITIAL GUST FRONT. THESE SHOULD BECOME LESS INTENSE AS THE POOL WEAKENS. ELSEWHERE...STRONG/SVR TSTMS EXITING THE HUDSON VALLEY AND ENTERING CT. THESE SHOULD WEAKEN AFT THEY GET A LITTLE PAST THE HOUSATONIC IN THE INCREASINGLY STABLE AIRMASS. WILL LET THE SVR WATCH EXPIRE AT MIDNIGHT...AND MAINTAIN THE MENTION OF ISOLD SVR GUSTS ACROSS ERN CT. LOWS AROUND 70 STILL LOOK ON TRACK SO NO CHANGES MADE THERE. THERE IS A HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENT DEVELOPMENT INTO THIS EVENING ON ALL ATLANTIC OCEAN FACING BEACHES.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/... UPPER TROUGH LIFTS WELL TO THE NORTH WEDNESDAY...WITH A SFC FRONT APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE WEST. UPPER TROUGH AXIS REMAINS WEST. MARGINAL INSTABILITY ALONG WITH ENOUGH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE SHOULD RESULT IN ISOLATED SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER DUE TO WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION. HOWEVER...ABOVE NORMAL READINGS ARE STILL EXPECTED...WITH 80S TO NEAR 90 ANTICIPATED. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE LOWER AS DEW POINTS REMAIN IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S DUE TO SOME DRIER AIR AND WESTERLY FLOW. THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENT DEVELOPMENT ON ALL ATLANTIC OCEAN BEACHES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... CONTINUING THREAT FOR PCPN WED NIGHT INTO THURS MORNING WITH GENERAL AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE 12Z MODEL SUITE OF FINALLY PUSHING THE COLD FRONT INTO THE TRI STATE AREA AFTER 00Z THURS...THEN STALLING THE FRONT JUST SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND BY 12Z THURS MORNING. AREA REMAINS PLACED UNDER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...WITH MULTIPLE WEAK SHORTWAVES ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AS IT SLOWLY PUSHES TO THE EAST. COMBINATION OF THE FORCING AT THE SURFACE WITH THE FRONT AND THE ENERGY ALOFT SHOULD WORK TO TRIGGER ISO-SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THE FRONT WORKS ITS WAY TO THE EAST. AS FOR SEVERITY LEVEL...DECENT SHEAR EXPECTED WITH VALUES BETWEEN 40 AND 50 KTS...BUT INSTABILITY MORE ON THE WEAKER SIDE OF THINGS. SURGE OF MOISTURE RIDES THE FRONT...BUT AXIS OF HEAVIEST PWAT VALUES LOOKS TO STAY TO THE SOUTH OF MOST OF THE AREA. SO OVERALL...THINKING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME GUSTY WINDS AND MAYBE SMALL HAIL IN ANY EVENING DEVELOPMENT...BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY SVR. WITH THE HIGHER PWAT VALUES TO THE SOUTH...COULD SEE BRIEF HEAVY RAIN...BUT NOTHING IN TERMS OF FLOODING CONCERNS. WITH THE FRONT IN THE VICINITY DURING THE DAY THURS...ALONG WITH DIURNAL INSTABILITY...CONTINUED SLIGHT CHC WORDING. HOWEVER...THURS COULD VERY WELL END UP A DRY DAY AFTER DAYBREAK FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS BUILDING IN THURS NIGHT AS THE FRONT FINALLY PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST AS THE TROUGH AXIS SWINGS EAST AND THE FLOW ALOFT ATTEMPTS TO TURN MORE ZONAL. DRY WX THEN SETS UP FOR FRI-SAT. 12Z MODELS LESS IMPRESSIVE WITH THE WARM FRONT OVER THE WEEKEND EVEN REACHING THE REGION...SO HAVE KEPT SAT MOSTLY DRY FOR MOST OF THE AREA...WITH A LOW END SLIGHT CHC PSBL FOR SAT AFTN WEST AND NORTH OF THE CITY WHERE THE BEST INSTABILITY SETS UP AND A DECENT VORT MAX PASSES THROUGH. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE TIMING OF THE PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM. GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SUGGESTIVE OF PCPN FORMING BY SUNDAY AFTN THEN OVERSPREADING THE REGION SUN NIGHT INTO MON. INCREASED POPS DURING THIS TIME WITH THE CONSISTENCY BETWEEN THE MODEL RUNS. HAVE CHC POPS ON INTO TUES...WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED THEN SOMETIME BY WED MORNING. TEMPERATURES OVERALL REMAINING NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED...USING A GENERAL MOS/WPC BLEND. && .AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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A SFC TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE FRONT WILL EAST OF THE AREA BY THU MORNING. STRONG GUST FRONT IS MOVING E OF NYC TERMINALS AS OF 3Z. EXPECT IT TO IMPACT KHPN/KBDR/KISP BETWEEN 03Z AND 04Z AND WILL PROBABLY WEAKEN TO NOT MUCH OF ANYTHING BY THE TIME IT MAKES IT TO KGON. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH PATCHY HZ/BR MAY DEVELOP DEVELOP WHERE WINDS LIGHTEN TO 5 KT OR LESS...MAINLY KHPN/KSWF/KBDR/KGON. MVFR OR POSSIBLY BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR. WINDS BECOME WSW BETWEEN 06Z AND 09Z W TO E BEHIND SFC TROUGH AND THIS COULD BE ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE A STRATUS DECK FROM DEVELOPING. HAVE CONTINUED WITH FEW-SCT LOW CLOUDS AT COASTAL TERMINALS LATE. MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS FOR WED...ALTHOUGH SEABREEZE MAY BACK SOME TERMINALS MORE TO THE S AS THEY DID TODAY. ISO TSTMS ALSO POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTN/EVE WED. .OUTLOOK FOR 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... .WEDNESDAY NIGHT...CHANCE OF TSTMS THROUGH EVENING WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. SLY WINDS DIMINISHING...BECOMING NLY LATE. .THURSDAY...MORNING SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE...OTHERWISE VFR. .THURSDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR. .SUNDAY...CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS WITH MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE.
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&& .MARINE...
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SHRA AND TSTMS WILL PASS THRU THE WATERS TNGT. STRONG WINDS IN EXCESS OF 35 KT ARE LIKELY. EXTENDED THE SCA THRU THE NGT DUE TO THE STRONG WINDS BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. INCREASING SEAS AGAIN ON WED WITH INCREASING SW FLOW. SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED ON THE OCEAN WATERS WED NIGHT INTO THURS...GENERALLY 5-6 FT. ONCE THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH AND HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN...SEAS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE...WITH SEAS DROPPING BELOW 5 FT BY THURS AFTN. THEN EXPECTING SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ON ALL WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH INCREASING WINDS/SEAS NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT.
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&& .HYDROLOGY...
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MAINLY 1/4 OR LESS OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TNGT. NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGY ISSUES EXPECTED WED NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
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&& .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ330-335- 338-340-345. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ350-353- 355.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...SEARS/PW NEAR TERM...JMC/PW SHORT TERM...PW LONG TERM...SEARS AVIATION... MARINE...JMC/SEARS/PW HYDROLOGY...JMC/SEARS/PW

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