Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 141737 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 137 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST TODAY. THIS HIGH PASSES OFFSHORE MONDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES MONDAY NIGHT...THEN PASSES THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WILL BE DOMINATED BY HIGH PRESSURE WITH A DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR THE AFTERNOON. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE THROUGH SOME CIRRUS CLOUDS ALONG WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... HIGH PRES BUILDS THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE ON MONDAY. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ON TAP FOR TONIGHT...WHICH MEAN EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS FOR THE INTERIOR AND FOR THE PINE BARRENS OF EASTERN LONG ISLAND. LOWS WILL GENERALLY DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S IN/AROUND NYC AND MOST COASTAL AREAS. FOR THE INTERIOR...LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE 40S...WITH SOME SPOTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. ANOTHER DRY AND MILD DAY ON TAP FOR MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT. WILL BUMP POPS UP TO LIKELY FOR SHOWERS LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO DAYBREAK TUESDAY. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... MEAN TROUGH OVER THE NE QUARTER OF THE NATION SENDS A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS THROUGH THE AREA THIS WEEK...WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN BETWEEN AND SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. TOWARD NEXT WEEKEND... THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL ALONG THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER. FIRST COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TUE MORNING. THERE CONTINUE TO BE SMALL TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE GLOBAL MODELS. THIS FRONT HAS DECENT UPPER SUPPORT...BUT NOT MUCH INSTABILITY...SO LOOKING FOR LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT THROUGH TUE MORNING. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS SE FROM CENTRAL CANADA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING WILL REINFORCE THE DRY...COOL AIR ALREADY IN PLACE. USED A BLEND OF WPC AND MOSGUIDE FOR TEMPS DURING THE PERIOD. DAYTIME HIGHS AND LOWS WILL AVERAGE 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. OVERALL...LITTLE CHANGE TO THE FORECAST THIS TIME FRAME. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN SLIDES OFFSHORE ON MONDAY. VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. N-NW WINDS...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO AROUND 15 KT BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY LATE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING. KJFK/KLGA/KEWR COULD SEE A PERIOD OF NW FLOW 5-10KT MONDAY MORNING...OTHERWISE WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE. TERMINALS NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST COULD SEE A SEABREEZE LATE THIS AFTERNOON - CONFIDENCE IN THIS THOUGH IS ONLY HIGH ENOUGH TO REFLECT AT KJFK IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING AT KJFK IS DIMINISHING...AND IT IS POSSIBLE AN AMENDMENT MAY BE NEEDED TO REMOVE THE SEABREEZE FROM THE TAF. .OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... .MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...VFR. .LATE MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...MVFR OR LOWER LIKELY. SW WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING. .TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR...N-NW WIND G15-20KT POSSIBLE. .TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...VFR. .WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR...N-NW WIND G15-20KT POSSIBLE. .THRUSDAY...VFR. THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...VFR. NE WIND G15-20KT POSSIBLE. && .MARINE... AS A COLD FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE WATERS...AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE WEST...WIND GUSTS WILL APPROACH SCA THRESHOLDS THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...THESE WIND GUSTS WILL BE SHORT LIVED...AND WINDS IN GENERAL WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY TODAY AS THE HIGH NEARS THE WATERS. LIGHT WINDS AND SUBSIDING SEAS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE ON TAP FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY IN CONTROL. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TUE MORNING AND ANOTHER LATE WED INTO THU. A BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTS APPROACHING 25 KT IS POSSIBLE IN THE NW FLOW BEHIND EACH COLD FRONT. IN ADDITION...SE SWELLS FROM DISTANT TROPICAL CYCLONE EDOUARD COULD REACH THE REGION STARTING LATE TUESDAY...CONTINUING INTO WEDNESDAY. UNDERCUT THE WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE BY ABOUT A FOOT AS SWELLS APPEAR TO BE OVERDONE AT THIS TIME. && .HYDROLOGY... DRY WEATHER THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING LOOK TO AVERAGE AROUND 1/4 TO 1/3 OF AN INCH. NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MPS NEAR TERM...MPS SHORT TERM...MPS/PW LONG TERM...PW/DW AVIATION...MALOIT MARINE...PW HYDROLOGY...PW

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