Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 211211 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 811 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL PASS EAST OF THE REGION TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON MONDAY...AND REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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HEAVY RAIN BANDING HAS BEEN DISRUPTED AS LLJ AND AXIS OF SUB- TROPICAL MOISTURE HAS MOVED EAST AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY HAS WASHED OUT. OVERNIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS RANGED FROM 0.50 TO 1.50 WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. OTHERWISE...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG ISLAND TODAY. AS A RESULT...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL ACROSS THE LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CT. THERE MAY ALSO BE AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR TWO...HOWEVER THE CHANCES ARE LOW AND WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW. THE HEAVIEST OF THE RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSING LOW WILL REMAIN FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE NOT TO IMPACT THE AREA. WE SHOULD SEE SOME CLEARING BY AFTERNOON...WITH SOME SLIGHTLY DRIER WEATHER. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA...WHERE SOME SHOWERS COULD BE POSSIBLE WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S IN MANY PLACES EXCEPT FAR EASTERN LONG ISLAND AND FAR SE CT WHERE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL BE SLOWER TO DEPART...AND IN THE HIGHER INTERIOR ELEVATIONS. THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT ATLANTIC OCEAN FACING BEACHES TODAY.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/... A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATING THE FRONT WILL COME THROUGH MOSTLY DRY. WILL KEEP SOME CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH MIDNIGHT FROM WESTERN LONG ISLAND AND WESTERN CT POINTS WEST. ACROSS THE EASTERN SECTION...THINKING THE SHOWERS WILL NOT MAKE IT OUT THIS FAR. EXPECT CLEARING AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE 55-60 INLAND...AND 60-65 IN NYC METRO AND ALONG THE COAST. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AN UPPER TROUGH WILL STILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT LIKELY JUST TO THE EAST OF THE AREA. THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS FORECAST TO PASS EAST OF THE AREA LATE MONDAY. AS OF NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH THE DRY FORECAST TO START MONDAY WITH THE FRONT EAST OF THE REGION AND DOWNSLOPING NORTHWESTERLY WIND AIDING IN DRYING THE LOWER LEVELS. A STRONG RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY THE REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH SATURDAY. AT THE SURFACE A COOL CANADIAN AIR MASS BUILD IN MONDAY AND THEN REMAINS THROUGH SATURDAY. MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL...THEN A WARMING TREND SETS UP FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE AIR MASS MODIFIES. && .AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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A WEAK COASTAL LOW TRACKS NE...JUST SE OF THE AREA TODAY...WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR CIGS THIS MORNING EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE THROUGH MVFR TO VFR THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT IS A BIT UNCERTAIN...WITH SLOWER IMPROVEMENT IN CIGS EXPECTED FOR EASTERN TERMINALS. KGON LIKELY REMAINS MVFR OR LOWER FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA THREAT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY KISP/KGON...ISOLATED THREAT ELSEWHERE. THIS EVENING/TONIGHT...MAINLY VFR CONDS EXPECTED AT WESTERN TERMINALS. ISOLATED -SHRA POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN TERMINALS...WITH COLD FRONT. BRIEF MVFR OR LOWER CONDS POSSIBLE AT KISP/KBDR LATE AFT/EVE...LIKELY MVFR OR LOWER CONDS AT KGON...UNTIL COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE BETWEEN 04Z AND 08Z FROM W TO E. LIGHT E/SE FLOW ACROSS TERMINALS THIS MORNING. FLOW SHOULD BECOME S/SE FOR COASTAL TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON...SW FOR KSWF AND POSSIBLY KEWR/KTEB. LIGHT SW FLOW THIS EVENING FOR ALL TERMINALS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT...SHIFT TO THE NW 8 TO 12 KT BEHIND THE FRONT LATE TONIGHT. .OUTLOOK FOR 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... .MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...VFR. NW WINDS G20KT POSSIBLE...BECOMING N MONDAY NIGHT. .TUESDAY-THURSDAY...VFR.
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&& .MARINE... SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS ARE BETWEEN 4 AND 5 FT. WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE HAS SEAS REACHING SCA LEVELS EARLY THIS MORNING...THEN SUBSIDING FOR A BRIEF PERIOD THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE INCREASING ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT AND MONDAY. AS A RESULT...HAVE PUT UP A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS ON THE THE OCEAN WATERS THROUGH MONDAY. SEAS INCREASE TONIGHT AS SWELLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PASSING TO THE SE ARRIVE. A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING EAST OF THE FORECAST WATERS EARLY MONDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE WEST. SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS WILL CONTINUE AT SMALL CRAFT LEVELS MONDAY...AND SOME GUSTS DURING MONDAY ON ALL THE FORECAST WATERS MAY REACH 20-25 KT AT TIMES. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE MONDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH BUILDS OVER THE WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WATERS INTO AT LEAST FRIDAY WITH WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA LEVELS. && .HYDROLOGY...
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SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. LESS THAN 1/4 INCH OF RAIN EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. THEN DRY MON THROUGH SAT.
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&& .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BC NEAR TERM...BC SHORT TERM...BC LONG TERM...MET AVIATION...NV MARINE...BC/MET HYDROLOGY...BC

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