Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 201648 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 1248 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN SLIDES OFFSHORE ON THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND THURSDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT LATE FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL THEN SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... STRATO-CUMULUS SLOWLY ERODING FROM E TO W...SO HAVE LOWERED HIGHS OVER MAINLY WESTERN ZONES 1-2 CATEGORIES TO REFLECT IMPACT FROM PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE SUSTAINED AT 10-15 WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH AS HUMIDITIES FALL TO 30 TO 35 PCT THIS AFTERNOON. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... EARLY TONIGHT...POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY LIGHT FROST ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN INTERIOR CT AS SFC WINDS DECOUPLE FROM THE UPPER FLOW AND ALLOW STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING. LOW TEMPS IN THE UPPER 30S. LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THU NIGHT...BKN MID AND UPPER LVL CLOUDS WILL ADVECT ENE ACROSS THE AREA AS AN UPSTREAM SHORT WV GRADUALLY AMPLIFIES. ALL THOUGH FORECAST MODELS SHOW A PROGRESSIVE OPEN FLAT WAVE MOVING OFF THE SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST THU NIGHT...AN AMPLIFYING SHORT WV SHOULD ADVECT THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF RAIN FURTHER NORTH AND A BIT CLOSER TO OUR LOCAL AREA. INCREASED POPS TO 20-25 PCT MAINLY BETWEEN 2 PM THU AND 2 AM FRI. TEMPS WILL AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL WITH BKN CLOUD COVER THRU THIS PERIOD. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... A LATE SEASON POLAR LOW WILL DROP SE ACROSS CANADA AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND FRI INTO SAT. HEIGHT RISES THEN FOLLOW AS RIDGING OVER THE MID SECTION OF THE COUNTRY BUILDS EAST SUN THRU TUE. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE GLOBAL MODELS WITH THE MAGNITUDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE AND IN HOW QUICKLY A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SW. THE 00Z GFS IS MORE SUPPRESSED WITH THE RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA AND MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN THE ECMWF. THE LATTER OF WHICH KEEPS THE REGION MAINLY DRY THROUGH NEXT TUE. THE GFS IS A MUCH WETTER SOLUTION LATE SUN NIGHT INTO TUE. GGEM IS SIMILAR TO THE GFS IS BEING MORE AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING IN RAINFALL AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT...YET HAS A MORE AMPLIFIED RIDGE LIKE THE ECMWF. PREFERENCE RIGHT NOW IS TO STAY WITH A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS LATE SUN NIGHT INTO TUE AND NOT MAKE WHOLESALE CHANGES UNTIL BETTER MODEL RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY IS SHOWN. AFTER SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS ON SAT FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY MODIFY TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH LOW PRESSURE PASSING WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. BKN-SCT CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE REGION WILL RESULT IN 3-4KFT CIGS. EXPECT A GUSTY NW FLOW WITH SPEEDS OF 10-15 KT GUSTING AND 20-25 KT. THE GUSTS GRADUALLY DIMINISH TONIGHT WITH MORE OF A SW FLOW FOR THURSDAY. OVERALL...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH WITH CATEGORY FORECAST AND MODERATE WITH WIND FORECAST. NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT... DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE) KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS COULD OCCASIONALLY DROP OFF AT TIMES. PEAK GUSTS COULD BE A FEW KT HIGHER THAN TAF. KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS COULD OCCASIONALLY DROP OFF AT TIMES. PEAK GUSTS COULD BE A FEW KT HIGHER THAN TAF. KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS COULD OCCASIONALLY DROP OFF AT TIMES. PEAK GUSTS COULD BE A FEW KT HIGHER THAN TAF. THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD. KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS COULD OCCASIONALLY DROP OFF AT TIMES. PEAK GUSTS COULD BE A FEW KT HIGHER THAN TAF. KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: START TIME OF GUSTS RETURNING COULD VARY A FEW HRS FROM FORECAST. PEAK GUSTS COULD BE A FEW KT HIGHER THAN TAF. KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: START TIME OF GUSTS RETURNING COULD VARY A FEW HRS FROM FORECAST. PEAK GUSTS COULD BE A FEW KT HIGHER THAN TAF. .OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... .THU-THU NIGHT...POSSIBLE MVFR WITH SHOWERS. OTHERWISE VFR. .FRI-FRI NIGHT...POSSIBLE MVFR WITH SHOWERS EARLY. OTHERWISE VFR. NW GUSTS 15-20 KT...POSSIBLY UP TO 25 KT. .SAT-SUN...VFR. S-SW WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 15-20 KT LATE SUN MORNING AND SUN AFTERNOON. && .MARINE... MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. THE FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK. FOR TODAY...NW WINDS OF 10-15 KT WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF 25 KT - MAINLY NEAR SHORE - ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN JUST BELOW THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL OF 25 KT. OCEAN SEAS WILL REMAIN 3 TO 4 FT. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR REACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS WILL COME FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT. SW WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT THEN SHIFT FROM THE NW AND INCREASE FOLLOWING THIS FRONT. LONG TERM...MAINLY SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FRI-SUN AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE WATERS FOLLOWING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FRI AFT. MARGINAL SCA GUSTS UP TO 25 KT ARE POSSIBLE FRI AFT/NIGHT IN THE W/NW FLOW. && .FIRE WEATHER... FOLLOWING YESTERDAYS WETTING RAINS OF UP TO 1/2 INCH...THIS AFTERNOON WILL FEATURE NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 MPH. HUMIDITIES ARE FORECAST TO DECREASE TO 30 TO 35 PERCENT. BASED ON THE WETTING RAINS...WILL NOT ISSUE ANY SPECIAL FIRE WEATHER PRODUCTS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. && .HYDROLOGY... THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF THE AREA. THERE IS A CHANCE OF RAINFALL LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODEL UNCERTAINTIES ARE LARGE ENOUGH AT THIS TIME TO NOT MENTION SPECIFIC AMOUNTS. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MALOIT/GC/DW NEAR TERM...MALOIT SHORT TERM...GC LONG TERM...DW AVIATION...BC/JM MARINE...MALOIT/GC/DW FIRE WEATHER...GC HYDROLOGY...GC/DW

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